AZ: NYT / Siena: Sen. Kelly (D) +6

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by NYT / Siena on 2022-10-26

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MillennialModerate]

Can see Kelly being favored but 6? Unlikely

[ShamDam]

BEAUTIFUL POLL! Thank you, NYT/Siena!

[xavier110]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

[wbrocks67]

They polled the favorables for GOV races, so I'm hoping there is some later release with those toplines. Would be really odd if they didn't do H2H for those races.

[Calthrina950]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Do you think Democrats might sweep the statewide offices in Arizona at this point?

[xavier110]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Do you think Democrats might sweep the statewide offices in Arizona at this point?

I don’t think it’s impossible. But it’s probably just as likely (or maybe slightly more likely, IMO) as a GOP sweep. I’ve become increasingly convinced that we are not going to get some split Kelly/Lake/Hamadeh/Fontes lineup, though watch that happen now that I’ve said it.

The most critical # of the night for me will be Kelly’s % in his three way race. If he’s clearing 50, that bodes well for the Ds, IMO. If he wins with a plurality/49, then the down ballot races could be a hodgepodge. If he loses, they all lose, lol. The first and third options seem likelier to me than number two (the murky option).

TLDR I’m very curious what Siena will show here in the gov race.

[Sir Mohamed]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Hobbs might still lose, especially if Kelly just wins by 1.5 or 2 pts.

[Calthrina950]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Do you think Democrats might sweep the statewide offices in Arizona at this point?

I don’t think it’s impossible. But it’s probably just as likely (or maybe slightly more likely, IMO) as a GOP sweep. I’ve become increasingly convinced that we are not going to get some split Kelly/Lake/Hamadeh/Fontes lineup, though watch that happen now that I’ve said it.

Well, at the very least I hope that if Lake does win, which I believe she will, that Fontes wins also. That would make it much more difficult for Lake to engage in any kind of electoral chicanery.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Do you think Democrats might sweep the statewide offices in Arizona at this point?

I don’t think it’s impossible. But it’s probably just as likely (or maybe slightly more likely, IMO) as a GOP sweep. I’ve become increasingly convinced that we are not going to get some split Kelly/Lake/Hamadeh/Fontes lineup, though watch that happen now that I’ve said it.

Well, at the very least I hope that if Lake does win, which I believe she will, that Fontes wins also. That would make it much more difficult for Lake to engage in any kind of electoral chicanery.

The OHPI poll released today had some good news in that respect.  It has Lake+2, Kelly+2, Fontes+6, Mayes+3.  It's one poll, of course, but shows Fontes with the best margin of any of the major candidates.

[Dani Rose]

Thank you, Siena, for saving us from the absolute Biblical Flood of trash polls this last two weeks. 

As with the PA poll, Masters' number looks just a bit low, but Kelly's looks right. I wager something like 52-48 Kelly in the end, maybe?

[GALeftist]

Easy Lean D

[Mr.Phips]

This is a good poll for Kelly, but I’m having a hard time believing it, just like the PA one.  Maybe Kelly ekes it out.

[xavier110]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Go Siena! Lol

[Lief 🗽]

Kelly at 51 percent, inject it in my veins, Governor Hobbs and Secretary Fontes

Go Siena! Lol

Yeah, the Siena polls were incredible this year. If they had done the volume of polling this year that they had in 2018 then people would have been much, much more skeptical of the red wave narrative.

[wbrocks67]

Siena and Marist were both very solid this year.

(they both found Fetterman 5-ish too)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yeah, the Siena polls were incredible this year. If they had done the volume of polling this year that they had in 2018 then people would have been much, much more skeptical of the red wave narrative.

Good point. The NYT/Siena polls also played a large part in setting (and also somewhat limiting) expectations in 2018 also. I wonder how expectations would have differed if they had not polled like they did in 2018.