Emerson: Hochul +6

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

You recently said House level polling in New York was looking abysmal for Democrats. Are you seeing the sort of numbers that would prompt investment in Morelle's district or that NY-03/04 are legitimately at risk of flipping?

I do think 3 and 4 are at serious risk, especially with Zeldin leading the ticket. I haven't seen anything about Morelle - that would certainly be the upset of the year, akin to OK-05 in 2018.

I can see 3 (and I in fact have it flipping), but 4 literally went 57%-42% Biden, which is only about four points to the right of the state.  I can see Zeldin narrowly winning the district, but i find it hard to believe that enough of these otherwise Dem Zeldin voters would vote Republican for congress.

Hot take- 4 is more likely to flip than 3. It's less educated and less white and will have a greater GOP swing

[pikachu]

I don't like saying and don't really understand it, but I have a feeling this will be a very underwhelming victory. Wonder whether Tish would have done better?

I actually thought Hochul would perform very well because she can appeal to parts of Upstate and female voters would be excited about her. Especially after quickly distance herself from Cuomo.

I think this is the problem actually? She’s a pretty weak candidate downstate. Not that she’s going to be losing a lot of city votes to Zeldin (though that’ll probably happen), but she’s pretty anonymous in city and hasn’t done much to change that. I think James would’ve done better.