Emerson: Hochul +6

[Matty]

9 point swing to Lee Atwater since their last poll

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1586085600213491713

[MT Treasurer]

9 point swing to Lee Atwater since their last poll

I’m sure he’s jumping for joy at this news.

[wbrocks67]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

[Matty]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

Just out of curiosity, wb,

Gun to your head, what are your predictions for the election?

Do you truly believe the dems will expand their control of Congress?

[Pollster]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

[kwabbit]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

You recently said House level polling in New York was looking abysmal for Democrats. Are you seeing the sort of numbers that would prompt investment in Morelle's district or that NY-03/04 are legitimately at risk of flipping?

[Pollster]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

You recently said House level polling in New York was looking abysmal for Democrats. Are you seeing the sort of numbers that would prompt investment in Morelle's district or that NY-03/04 are legitimately at risk of flipping?

I do think 3 and 4 are at serious risk, especially with Zeldin leading the ticket. I haven't seen anything about Morelle - that would certainly be the upset of the year, akin to OK-05 in 2018.

[kwabbit]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

You recently said House level polling in New York was looking abysmal for Democrats. Are you seeing the sort of numbers that would prompt investment in Morelle's district or that NY-03/04 are legitimately at risk of flipping?

I do think 3 and 4 are at serious risk, especially with Zeldin leading the ticket. I haven't seen anything about Morelle - that would certainly be the upset of the year, akin to OK-05 in 2018.

What does serious risk mean exactly? Is it polls regularly/consistently showing the Democrat behind in the district, or is it a freak out because of a +2 D outlier?

The GOP did get within a hair of winning the Rochester seat in 2014, but the region's trended D since then so it's harder lift nowadays. Pelosi and McCarthy have both pumped some money in and it being competitive would definitely qualify as abysmal.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Seems like a coalescing of the undecideds, their last poll had Hochul up 50-35

[Calthrina950]

Hochul, as expected, is on track to win, but I feel confident in saying that she will be held to single digits at this point. And that by itself could give Republicans significant gains in the House. Notably, Emerson has Hochul up by the same margin as Slingshot Strategy.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Wow I didn’t believe any of these polls but Emerson too? I suppose maybe he can hold it within single digits. This could have crazy house implications.

[Mr.Phips]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

You recently said House level polling in New York was looking abysmal for Democrats. Are you seeing the sort of numbers that would prompt investment in Morelle's district or that NY-03/04 are legitimately at risk of flipping?

I do think 3 and 4 are at serious risk, especially with Zeldin leading the ticket. I haven't seen anything about Morelle - that would certainly be the upset of the year, akin to OK-05 in 2018.

I can see 3 (and I in fact have it flipping), but 4 literally went 57%-42% Biden, which is only about four points to the right of the state.  I can see Zeldin narrowly winning the district, but i find it hard to believe that enough of these otherwise Dem Zeldin voters would vote Republican for congress.

[wbrocks67]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

IDK, something still seems very odd - You have 15% of Biden 2020 voters who would vote for... Trump in the 2024 rematch?

Their Democrat sample also has 21% of Dems voting for Trump in 2024 and nearly the same voting for Zeldin this year.

And maybe I'm reading it wrong, but only 17 people in their sample are "did not vote" in 2020? Does that mean there is barely any either non-2020 or new voters in this sample?

Even the “Does the FBI search make you more or less likely to support Trump in 2024” and 24% of Democrats say “more likely” (!!), and in the overall sample, in New York of all places, there is a higher total for “More likely” (35%) than “Less Likely” (34%). In a Biden +26 sample?!

IDK, maybe I'm totally off here. But that all just seems very odd.

[Ferguson97]

9 point swing to Lee Atwater since their last poll

Am I the only one who caught this

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

Its the same thing I pointed out in the other New York Poll that had the margin very low between Biden and Trump, but Trump still had just 37%.

Its less non-response bias and more angry New York Democrats.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

IDK, something still seems very odd - You have 15% of Biden 2020 voters who would vote for... Trump in the 2024 rematch?

Their Democrat sample also has 21% of Dems voting for Trump in 2024 and nearly the same voting for Zeldin this year.

And maybe I'm reading it wrong, but only 17 people in their sample are "did not vote" in 2020? Does that mean there is barely any either non-2020 or new voters in this sample?

Even the “Does the FBI search make you more or less likely to support Trump in 2024” and 24% of Democrats say “more likely” (!!), and in the overall sample, in New York of all places, there is a higher total for “More likely” (35%) than “Less Likely” (34%). In a Biden +26 sample?!

IDK, maybe I'm totally off here. But that all just seems very odd.

Buddy there have been several polls of this race and others and you seem to keep trying to dive into the cross tabs to find something to discredit them/ confirm your priors. Why are you even in the polling board? It's not changing your opinion on any of the races? You have a theory on this midterm and are sticking with it.   Save your self the deep dive on poll crosstabs.

As for some of your specific problems this time. With the large caveat to mostly ignore poll subsamples.

1. First time voters.- A very small percentage of the American population is first time eligible. Historically (ie in literally every election since I have been alive) more people turn out in presidential elections than in midterms.  I understand you are going to counter with Dobbs but a large majority of people motivated by that decision hated Donald Trump and already turned out in both 2018 and 2020. Opposition to Lee Zeldin and a smattering of house races  don't inspire as much as opposition to Trump.

New York's contested gov primary occurred after Dobbs leak and had less turnout than 4 years prior (2018) and the 2020 presidential primary that occurred after Sanders dropped out.

2. Non response bias- the last several cycles it there has been a GOP non response bias. You think this has switched. Polls won't ever show it by their nature. This does not always have to favor the GOP but I personally don't see how Democrats have become harder to reach in the past two years. You may be right and if so you can say you called it.

3. Given Biden's approval the fact he would lose some 2020 Biden  voters in a hypothetical rematch with Trump is unsurprising.  This forum does not have many swing voters as the super informed election nerds tend to be hyper partisan. This does not mean he can't get those voters back in 2024.
These voters often vote against the party in power. Some to "punish" the presidents party, which has disappointed them, others because their presidential vote was more "against the other guy" than for the president's priorities and thus they naturally prefer a divided gov.

[Duke of York]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

IDK, something still seems very odd - You have 15% of Biden 2020 voters who would vote for... Trump in the 2024 rematch?

Their Democrat sample also has 21% of Dems voting for Trump in 2024 and nearly the same voting for Zeldin this year.

And maybe I'm reading it wrong, but only 17 people in their sample are "did not vote" in 2020? Does that mean there is barely any either non-2020 or new voters in this sample?

Even the “Does the FBI search make you more or less likely to support Trump in 2024” and 24% of Democrats say “more likely” (!!), and in the overall sample, in New York of all places, there is a higher total for “More likely” (35%) than “Less Likely” (34%). In a Biden +26 sample?!

IDK, maybe I'm totally off here. But that all just seems very odd.

these cross tabs make zero sense. there is no way this is accurate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

3. Given Biden's approval the fact he would lose some 2020 Biden  voters in a hypothetical rematch with Trump is unsurprising.  This forum does not have many swing voters as the super informed election nerds tend to be hyper partisan. This does not mean he can't get those voters back in 2024.
These voters often vote against the party in power. Some to "punish" the presidents party, which has disappointed them, others because their presidential vote was more "against the other guy" than for the president's priorities and thus they naturally prefer a divided gov.

In a normal midterm this would be taken for granted. New administration, a good bit of novelty to the coalition with some ex-other party members suddenly meets adverse conditions, the end result is a drop off of support. This is especially so among the parts of the coalition that are the most likely to feel alienated or forgotten by the administration, since the minute an administration takes office it is losing support as winners and losers are doled out. The group that loses the most is the one that ends up driving the loses in the midterm and it is one that trends towards the other side over the course of the administration.

However, because of Trump and because of abortion there is a theory that this midterm must be different and there is no way this midterm could possibly play out like normal under these circumstances with those two factors in play, even though inflation is eating away at people financially, crime is a legitimate concern and Democrats in some races are running terrible campaigns.

[free my dawg]

Looking about my ideal result. Not enough to throw the race to some lunatic, but hopefully enough to scare her and the state establishment into an actual partnership with us.

[Ferguson97]

Looking about my ideal result. Not enough to throw the race to some lunatic, but hopefully enough to scare her and the state establishment into an actual partnership with us.

In what universe does a 6% victory for Hochul would scare her into being more progressive?

[jaichind]

This poll has very positive implications for the GOP down-ballot and in competitive NY House races

[Calthrina950]

Looking about my ideal result. Not enough to throw the race to some lunatic, but hopefully enough to scare her and the state establishment into an actual partnership with us.

In what universe does a 6% victory for Hochul would scare her into being more progressive?

If anything, I think Hochul will try to pivot more to the center after she wins reelection. She's already been making noises about taking a "tougher on crime" approach.

[wbrocks67]

My point was that Biden's approval is about -9 right now nationwide. Again, using a universal swing is not always entirely accurate, but it seems to be in the right area with most of the information we know (lined up pretty well with VA exits last year)

Given NY was Biden +23 in 2020, it was about ~18% left of the nation. So with that being said, you'd probably expect Biden's approval to then be about +9 right now in NY, give or take a few points.

In early September (and the most recent Siena poll), Emerson actually had Biden at +8 approval. The most recent Siena, that had Hochul +11, had him +8 approval. So all of that pretty much lined up.

This one - and most of the ones that have Zeldin doing much better - have Biden at like a tied approval or this one, 46/47 in New York.

Again, granted, universal swing is not going to be perfect across the board. But Biden's approval randomly being much worse in New York of all places compared to everywhere else (swing wise) again would just be pretty randomly surprising. That's just the type of thing that makes me think something's funky. (let alone the SurveyUSA poll finding the same result as this with a Biden +11 2020 recall)

So again, I may be totally wrong. But I don't think it's wrong to question that something funky may be going on in the NY polls. For all we know, the same issues were the reason why the NY-19 polls were off. Maybe it's not. Who knows.

[TheTide]

It's funny that a lot of people are going to eagerly anticipate the closing of the polls in both NY and OK. It's been a while since that was the case.

[President Johnson]

I don't like saying and don't really understand it, but I have a feeling this will be a very underwhelming victory. Wonder whether Tish would have done better?

I actually thought Hochul would perform very well because she can appeal to parts of Upstate and female voters would be excited about her. Especially after quickly distance herself from Cuomo.