I don't see Mastriano winning, especially since this poll has Oz up by 3. That said, it will be a lot closer than 10 points.
I'm not sure low double digits are that unreasonable of an expectation, to be frank. Yes, it's a less favorable year, but Mastriano is much worse than Scott Wagner was in 2018.
It's interesting that there will apparently be legions of Shapiro-Oz voters.
I would like to remind people that Mastriano is the only non-incumbent/unfamiliar (to the electorate) Republican in a swing state race who’s been labeled a Nazi, conspiracy theorist, and fascist, all of which (especially the first two) are very intimidating labels which might make more than a few voters... hesitant to admit they are supporting/considering him. By contrast, Oz has been propped up by media and establishment Republicans alike and has been a familiar face to voters for two decades — to the average voter, there is no perceived loss in prestige when declaring their support for him.
You might counter by noting that people like Johnson and Lake have been called "conspiracy theorists" etc. as well and that they’re polling much better than Mastriano. That is accurate, but there is a major difference here: Johnson is an incumbent with a recognized
large base of support (even if the base that opposes him is nearly as numerous, a 50-50 split still suggests that both 'camps' are equally represented among the electorate), while Lake is a longtime news anchor who has connected with AZ voters for years, which will make it harder to change opinions of her. Put simply, with Johnson and Lake, the average voter knows that they’re not in the clear minority when voicing their support for them; with Mastriano, they don’t (and instead face the additional risk of being lumped in with what are widely perceived to be the most undesirable segments of society).
Don’t be surprised if the gap between Oz and Mastriano is not nearly as wide on election day as it currently seems and if there’s a particularly big 'polling error' in the gubernatorial race (while the Senate race polls are largely accurate).
