NY SLINGSHOT STRATEGY GOV HOCHUL +6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1586005957661925376?s=20&t=Ag-tB9-jsmIfQBFwktFIkw

[Eraserhead]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

[Pollster]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

[wbrocks67]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

Looks like this sample is 33% conservative, 27% liberal, which kind of seems to point to more nonresponse bias, no?

It really feels like all of these samples are kind of whack, or Democrats suddenly don't want to vote this year in New York lol.

(2018 and 2020 were both Liberal+10 on conservative, per exit polls)

[Duke of York]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

Looks like this sample is 33% conservative, 27% liberal, which kind of seems to point to more nonresponse bias, no?

It really feels like all of these samples are kind of whack, or Democrats suddenly don't want to vote this year in New York lol.

(2018 and 2020 were both Liberal+10 on conservative, per exit polls)

which is why its suspect to me. Its as if somehow Democrats are going to show up everywhere in New England and the mid Atlantic but New York. Doesn't add up.

[Roll Roons]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

[Duke of York]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

[Roll Roons]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

If the final result was D+6? She would definitely lose Onondaga and more likely than not the other two.

[Calthrina950]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

Why not? Paladino carried Erie County in 2010, despite losing in a landslide, and Cuomo lost Monroe County in 2014, despite beating Astorino by almost 14% that year. Onondaga County has gone Republican in congressional races and went Republican in the Comptroller's race back in 2010. I can easily see Hochul losing those counties if she wins by only single digits, especially since they are all to the right of the state.

[Duke of York]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

Why not? Paladino carried Erie County in 2010, despite losing in a landslide, and Cuomo lost Monroe County in 2014, despite beating Astorino by almost 14% that year. Onondaga County has gone Republican in congressional races and went Republican in the Comptroller's race back in 2010. I can easily see Hochul losing those counties if she wins by only single digits, especially since they are all to the right of the state.

Hochul is from Erie County just like Paladino.

[Calthrina950]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

Why not? Paladino carried Erie County in 2010, despite losing in a landslide, and Cuomo lost Monroe County in 2014, despite beating Astorino by almost 14% that year. Onondaga County has gone Republican in congressional races and went Republican in the Comptroller's race back in 2010. I can easily see Hochul losing those counties if she wins by only single digits, especially since they are all to the right of the state.

Hochul is from Erie County just like Paladino.

True, but I've read that she's not particularly popular there.

[Eraserhead]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

Hope they either don't know what they're doing or are just trying to scare people into action then because this is pathetic for her.

[kwabbit]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

Hope they either don't know what they're doing or are just trying to scare people into action then because this is pathetic for her.

Have you missed the 10 other polls that have had the race at about this margin? Hochul is clearly struggling to run a competitive campaign after expecting to cruise during the general election. Zeldin is pretty conservative, but she's not been able to raise the salience of issues that favor her.

[kwabbit]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

If the final result was D+6? She would definitely lose Onondaga and more likely than not the other two.

I think she'd keep Erie narrowly because she's from Hamburg and probably Monroe as well. Onandaga would be lost. This election will have some geographic polarization in the opposite direction, with Zeldin probably attaining big margins on Long Island and making inroads into the outer boroughs. Hochul will probably about the same/better than Cuomo 2014 Upstate IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll proves that Wick and Co EFFICIENT are just as bad as Trafalgar, they have Oz and Zeldin winning and TRAFALGAR has Walz losing no pollster has WaLz losing

[Eraserhead]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

Hope they either don't know what they're doing or are just trying to scare people into action then because this is pathetic for her.

Have you missed the 10 other polls that have had the race at about this margin? Hochul is clearly struggling to run a competitive campaign after expecting to cruise during the general election. Zeldin is pretty conservative, but she's not been able to raise the salience of issues that favor her.

I remember seeing a few like this, yes. Last couple I saw were +15 and +11 though which seem more reasonable.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

This poll proves that Wick and Co EFFICIENT are just as bad as Trafalgar, they have Oz and Zeldin winning and TRAFALGAR has Walz losing no pollster has WaLz losing

This poll is literally in the Margin of error of the last Tralfagar poll of this race, and matches the exact margin of this co efficient poll from September.

https://app.displayr.com/Dashboard?id=c96119e9-ba64-432c-9370-ea12ed8d7f96#page=74706541-0795-448f-9a26-6880f4d33ff0

[Calthrina950]

This poll proves that Wick and Co EFFICIENT are just as bad as Trafalgar, they have Oz and Zeldin winning and TRAFALGAR has Walz losing no pollster has WaLz losing

This poll is literally in the Margin of error of the last Tralfagar poll of this race, and matches the exact margin of this co efficient poll from September.

https://app.displayr.com/Dashboard?id=c96119e9-ba64-432c-9370-ea12ed8d7f96#page=74706541-0795-448f-9a26-6880f4d33ff0

Trafalgar was widely mocked for showing this race as competitive, but now they are being vindicated.

[Ljube]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

Except in highly partisan states/districts, where they tend to break toward the majority party. 

If they break heavily to the challenger, do you also think Hofmeister will win in Oklahoma?

[Duke of York]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

I’m inclined to agree. I think Zeldin has a decent shot of winning.

[Ljube]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

Except in highly partisan states/districts, where they tend to break toward the majority party. 

If they break heavily to the challenger, do you also think Hofmeister will win in Oklahoma?

Who are the undecideds in New York?
Probably Democrats (Democratic Independents).
If they are undecided now, they are not voting for Hochul.
Something turned them off.
Most likely crime, draconian covid restrictions, and incompetence of Hochul.


In Oklahoma, there is a decent chance of Dem winning because of Stitt's unreasonable and radical stance on abortion.

[Duke of York]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

Except in highly partisan states/districts, where they tend to break toward the majority party. 

If they break heavily to the challenger, do you also think Hofmeister will win in Oklahoma?

Who are the undecideds in New York?
Probably Democrats (Democratic Independents).
If they are undecided now, they are not voting for Hochul.
Something turned them off.
Most likely crime, draconian covid restrictions, and incompetence of Hochul.


In Oklahoma, there is a decent chance of Dem winning because of Stitt's unreasonable and radical stance on abortion.

So if an incumbent is below 50 percent you think it’s a guarantee they lose?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HOCHUL isn't losing

[Duke of York]

HOCHUL isn't losing

What makes you be so sure?