PA-SEN Wick Poll Post-Debate: Oz + 2

[2016]

Oz 48
Fetterman 46
https://my.wick.io/analysis/shared/item/219F57B7-ACAD-426E-BC69-57ECD0E8A2F6/view

[SnowLabrador]

The topline is reasonable.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Somebody brighter than I am can explain this, but was their methodology different from their pre-debate Oz +6 poll? I think that one was Oz 49-42. 

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Fetterman doing better than he was before the debate. Thank you, Wick!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Somebody brighter than I am can explain this, but was their methodology different from their pre-debate Oz +6 poll? I think that one was Oz 49-42. 

It was Oz+4.5 (49.1-44.6) - here's the thread for that poll.

As for their methodology, I've no idea.

[Eraserhead]

Margin is only 1.7% to be more exact here as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Close 2 pts

[Person Man]

Is the methodology any different? It shows Fetterman gaining..

[Pollster]

There are no actual undecideds in this poll (again), so the best use of this poll is analyzing movement.

Their last poll definitely felt like a genuine outlier, this one more reflects a toss-up race.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

There are no actual undecideds in this poll (again), so the best use of this poll is analyzing movement.

Their last poll definitely felt like a genuine outlier, this one more reflects a toss-up race.

Movement as in Oz being stagnant and Fetterman gaining? Or both candidates gaining?

[Senator Cris]

From Twitter, please correct me if wrong:

The last poll’s sample I remember was like R+3 or so…this one is now D+1

2020 was a R+1 electorate

[wbrocks67]

From Twitter, please correct me if wrong:

The last poll’s sample I remember was like R+3 or so…this one is now D+1

2020 was a R+1 electorate

I honestly don't know how they're able to get these numbers, because now the 2020 recall is better for Trump than their last poll. And this one is even a smidge more conservative than the last one (now 45% conservative, vs 34% in 2020)

I'm not even going to try and understand what they're doing here, because the topline party ID/vote recall does not add up to their other sample measures

[Pollster]

From Twitter, please correct me if wrong:

The last poll’s sample I remember was like R+3 or so…this one is now D+1

2020 was a R+1 electorate

I honestly don't know how they're able to get these numbers, because now the 2020 recall is better for Trump than their last poll. And this one is even a smidge more conservative than the last one (now 45% conservative, vs 34% in 2020)

I'm not even going to try and understand what they're doing here, because the topline party ID/vote recall does not add up to their other sample measures

Margin of error applies to every number in the poll, folks!

[Pollster]

There are no actual undecideds in this poll (again), so the best use of this poll is analyzing movement.

Their last poll definitely felt like a genuine outlier, this one more reflects a toss-up race.

Movement as in Oz being stagnant and Fetterman gaining? Or both candidates gaining?

Movement in general - but don't overthink it! All signs point to a toss-up here.

[Senator Cris]

For those who love doing this...
The race and gender composition of the size is almost identical to 2020. They are a bit overestimating Trump in recalled vote but are underestimating Rs in Party ID.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Schumer was right about Fetterman holding up well after the debate.

[wbrocks67]

For those who love doing this...
The race and gender composition of the size is almost identical to 2020. They are a bit overestimating Trump in recalled vote but are underestimating Rs in Party ID.

Right, so my question is how is this possible? How do you find a composite that is somehow underestimating Republicans in Party ID yet extremely overstating conservatives?

The conservative total is 11% more than 2020, and that seems way outside MoE?

[Person Man]

For those who love doing this...
The race and gender composition of the size is almost identical to 2020. They are a bit overestimating Trump in recalled vote but are underestimating Rs in Party ID.

Right, so my question is how is this possible? How do you find a composite that is somehow underestimating Republicans in Party ID yet extremely overstating conservatives?

The conservative total is 11% more than 2020, and that seems way outside MoE?

Trafalgar sometimes  has 50% D, 50% conservative samples

[Senator Cris]

For those who love doing this...
The race and gender composition of the size is almost identical to 2020. They are a bit overestimating Trump in recalled vote but are underestimating Rs in Party ID.

Right, so my question is how is this possible? How do you find a composite that is somehow underestimating Republicans in Party ID yet extremely overstating conservatives?

The conservative total is 11% more than 2020, and that seems way outside MoE?

I don't know.
I think the best idea is to "put it in the average", without looking too much at crosstabs. For every poll, obviously.
The average points out to a very close race, that's all. We'll know more on Election Night.

[Hollywood]

It's all about Trump v. Biden voters.  It's always been about how many voters from 2020 stick around for the next election, as well as how many anti-Trump voters Republicans can woe from Biden. It's mainly about running up the base.  Wick wants to know which voters are more enthusiastic.  In VA, Youngkin got around 80% while McAuliffe received around 65% of Trump's 2020 Vote.  

If you combine both polls, it shows Oz exceeding the total number of Trump Voters, while Fetterman has dipped underwater.  Wick increased the number of Trump voters.  I think this is due to the level of enthusiasm they saw in the pre-debate poll.  

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Looks like Schumer was right about Fetterman holding up well after the debate.

Yep. Now let's just hope he wasn't right about Walker (although that's the most saveable since a runoff with national attention would be bad for him)

[Dani Rose]

So let me get this straight, right. Fetterman catastrophically loses the debate in the eyes of Republicans and Doomercrats, and yet, somehow, the first post-debate poll, coming from the same firm that posted his worst result all year...has him doing better than their previous poll.