Florida 1996

[Plankton5165]

Florida, a perennial bellwether state since Calvin Coolidge, who’s been dead for nearly 80 years, was the FIRST state to be called for Clinton on election night! Explanation?

BTW, I’m posting this in Florida, even though I primarily reside in New Jersey.

[OSR stands with Israel]

States were called much faster in those days and I think the general rule was if the exits showed a candidate up by 5 or more in a state, they would call it as soon as the polls closed in the vast majority of the state.

Since 2000 this changed

[South Dakota Democrat]

States were called much faster in those days and I think the general rule was if the exits showed a candidate up by 5 or more in a state, they would call it as soon as the polls closed in the vast majority of the state.

Since 2000 this changed

Right, and I think the rule was that the polls had to have closed in 75% of the state, if I'm not mistaken.  Different time.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I find it way more astonishing that Georgia had been called so early for Clinton in 1992 so early even though he won it by less than 1%.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

States were called much faster in those days and I think the general rule was if the exits showed a candidate up by 5 or more in a state, they would call it as soon as the polls closed in the vast majority of the state.

Since 2000 this changed

It should have changed before then. Networks immediately called NH & GA for Clinton in 1992, which was completely asinine in retrospect. They were saved from embarrassment only by Clinton managing to very narrowly pull it out in both states. Fox repeated this mistake with AZ in 2020.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I find it way more astonishing that Georgia had been called so early for Clinton in 1992 so early even though he won it by less than 1%.

This kind of media over-confidence was basically begging for a 2000 Florida situation. "Gore wins Florida...wait no it's too close to call...wait no Bush wins Florida....wait no too close to call...damn hanging chads!"

Let's just be grateful that the major networks learned their lesson in the much more civil era of 2000. Had the pre-2000 bullishness persisted until 2020 and led to incorrect state projections, that already ugly election and transition of power would have gotten much, much uglier.

[Alben Barkley]

I find it way more astonishing that Georgia had been called so early for Clinton in 1992 so early even though he won it by less than 1%.

This kind of media over-confidence was basically begging for a 2000 Florida situation. "Gore wins Florida...wait no it's too close to call...wait no Bush wins Florida....wait no too close to call...damn hanging chads!"

Let's just be grateful that the major networks learned their lesson in the much more civil era of 2000. Had the pre-2000 bullishness persisted until 2020 and led to incorrect state projections, that already ugly election and transition of power would have gotten much, much uglier.

Even still, the AZ 2020 call was arguably reckless, from Fox News of all people.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I find it way more astonishing that Georgia had been called so early for Clinton in 1992 so early even though he won it by less than 1%.

This kind of media over-confidence was basically begging for a 2000 Florida situation. "Gore wins Florida...wait no it's too close to call...wait no Bush wins Florida....wait no too close to call...damn hanging chads!"

Let's just be grateful that the major networks learned their lesson in the much more civil era of 2000. Had the pre-2000 bullishness persisted until 2020 and led to incorrect state projections, that already ugly election and transition of power would have gotten much, much uglier.

Even still, the AZ 2020 call was arguably reckless, from Fox News of all people.

True enough, but Fox's early Arizona call wasn't as bad because it did turn out to be correct. And let's be real, Trump was going to call foul regardless of anything else that happened. But had Arizona gone for Trump despite Fox News calling it for Biden, the foul play narrative would only have been strengthened, so yeah, it was pretty reckless

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Florida, a perennial bellwether state since Calvin Coolidge, who’s been dead for nearly 80 years, was the FIRST state to be called for Clinton on election night! Explanation?

BTW, I’m posting this in Florida, even though I primarily reside in New Jersey.

Apart from Florida being called early though, it's worth noting that Florida did actually break its bellwether streak in 1992, voting for Bush while the nation voted for Clinton. But the Ross Perot factor makes 1992 a weird election. In any case, the more pertinent question might be: why did Clinton win big in Florida in 1996? I think there were three factors:

1. Bubba appealed to southern whites in a way that no Democrat since Jimmy Carter did, and this helped him in Northern Florida. The ancestral democrats from the backwoods of the Dixie were still a winnable constituency for Dems in this period, and Clinton had a much more natural appeal to those people than someone like Dukakis (or even Gore, who may have been a southerner but very much a "DC politician"

2. Much of Southern Florida is full of northeastern transplants, and this was the case in the 90s too. Clinton really improved his margins in the northeast in 1996, both by picking up Perot voters and chipping into the Bush base too. Backlash to Gingrich-style Republican politics was strongest in the northeast, and Clinton moved the Democrats to the right in ways that helped him with northeastern moderates, like pushing tough-on-crime policies. Just as this helped him in the northeast, it also helped him with northeastern transplants.

3. Cubans were another group that Clinton's moderation appealed to. Traditionally, fear of and distaste for socialism turned off Cubans from the Democratic Party, and we're seeing this now too, as further-left voices gain more prominence in the Democratic Party. Even though he ran on the record of a moderate southern Democrat in 1992, Bush and the Republicans still tried to beat the socialism drum with Clinton. But by 1996, this wasn't a remotely credible narrative, because Bill Clinton didn't govern as even a social democrat, let alone socialist. Miami-Dade gave Clinton a much bigger share in 1996, and Dole underperformed Bush significantly, suggesting that Clinton picked up a good chunk of both Perot and Bush voters. My hunch is that many Bush-voting Cubans from 1992 switched to Clinton in 1996.

In 2000, Gore largely held on to the gains made by Clinton with the "northeastern" and "Cuban" cohorts, and Lieberman probably helped with the sizeable Jewish community in SoFlo. But the "backwoods southern white Democrats" cohort swung hard to Bush, and we all know what happened in Florida that year.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Regarding network projections, the 2000 election didn't just make the networks more cautious about calling races, but it also opened them up to the idea that elections are a form of infotainment. Hence why races that would have been called on the closing of the polls pre-2000 now in some cases take up to pretty much the completion of the count. Phrases such as "apparent winner" and "too early to call" are typical of the post-2000 election night.

Incidentally, I've created a thread on this board along the lines of this very subject.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=528089.0