OR Gov (Trafalgar) - Drazan +1.3

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1585398377923346432?s=20&t=vVJ33j...

[Utah Neolib]

It’s good to see another OR-GOV poll. It seems like Drazan’s lead has slowly ticked down recently because of Betsy Johnson voters slowly coming home to Kotek. Seems like a fairly fragile lead for Drazan if Johnson is being overestimated.

[Eraserhead]

Drazen is cooked.

[Person Man]

Drazen is cooked.

We need a solid west coast for strategic reasons for the worst case scenario over the next 5 years.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

As I've said previously, PNW liberal whites are as inelastic as southern evangelical whites. This was always fools gold for Republicans.

[Person Man]

As I've said previously, PNW liberal whites are as inelastic as southern evangelical whites. This was always fools gold for Republicans.

Basically hippies and rednecks are real.

[Lief 🗽]

Lean D at this point.

[Sestak]

KEEP ON TRUCKIN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[sg0508]

This one will slide Democratic in the end...again.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s good to see another OR-GOV poll. It seems like Drazan’s lead has slowly ticked down recently because of Betsy Johnson voters slowly coming home to Kotek. Seems like a fairly fragile lead for Drazan if Johnson is being overestimated.

Not really as this poll is showing pretty much the same exact result as Data for Progress

[Utah Neolib]

It’s good to see another OR-GOV poll. It seems like Drazan’s lead has slowly ticked down recently because of Betsy Johnson voters slowly coming home to Kotek. Seems like a fairly fragile lead for Drazan if Johnson is being overestimated.

Not really as this poll is showing pretty much the same exact result as Data for Progress

Yes, it did. But do you think Johnson’s vote share will hold up as much as it has? I’m not sure it will.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s good to see another OR-GOV poll. It seems like Drazan’s lead has slowly ticked down recently because of Betsy Johnson voters slowly coming home to Kotek. Seems like a fairly fragile lead for Drazan if Johnson is being overestimated.

Not really as this poll is showing pretty much the same exact result as Data for Progress

Yes, it did. But do you think Johnson’s vote share will hold up as much as it has? I’m not sure it will.

Yes cause Johnson unlike the vast majority of third party candidates actually has a lot of money, has gotten a lot of media coverage and most importantly has been let into all the main debates and main forums.

[wbrocks67]

It’s good to see another OR-GOV poll. It seems like Drazan’s lead has slowly ticked down recently because of Betsy Johnson voters slowly coming home to Kotek. Seems like a fairly fragile lead for Drazan if Johnson is being overestimated.

Not really as this poll is showing pretty much the same exact result as Data for Progress

Yes, it did. But do you think Johnson’s vote share will hold up as much as it has? I’m not sure it will.

Yes cause Johnson unlike the vast majority of third party candidates actually has a lot of money, has gotten a lot of media coverage and most importantly has been let into all the main debates and main forums.

Does she in the final stretch though? I thought her main donor (Knight) ditched her for Drazan?

[NOVA Green]

Political Party distribution looks to be really wick wick whack in this poll...

1,161 LVs

47% DEM, 33% PUB, 20% Other.


Actual RV numbers are:

34% DEM, 25% PUB, 41% OTHER

Sure, I get it that party registration versus party identification are not the same deal, but yet it looks like this poll significantly oversamples PUBs and PUB leaners...

Not trying to unskew, but still....

[OSR stands with Israel]

Political Party distribution looks to be really wick wick whack in this poll...

1,161 LVs

47% DEM, 33% PUB, 20% Other.


Actual RV numbers are:

34% DEM, 25% PUB, 41% OTHER

Sure, I get it that party registration versus party identification are not the same deal, but yet it looks like this poll significantly oversamples PUBs and PUB leaners...

Not trying to unskew, but still....

Looks like it oversampled Dems even more though

[soundchaser]

Digging into a Trafalgar poll’s crosstabs is like spelunking in a ball pit at Chuck E. Cheese’s: hollow, unsatisfying, and likely to give you a terrible disease.

[NOVA Green]

Digging into a Trafalgar poll’s crosstabs is like spelunking in a ball pit at Chuck E. Cheese’s: hollow, unsatisfying, and likely to give you a terrible disease.

So bunk pull plus... DECIMALS?

[wbrocks67]

Digging into a Trafalgar poll’s crosstabs is like spelunking in a ball pit at Chuck E. Cheese’s: hollow, unsatisfying, and likely to give you a terrible disease.

Yeah, they never make any sense. They usually even oversample Ds and then somehow have the R winning Independents by like 40%.