Az- fox 10 Phoenix- lake +11

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585360101082562560

[MillennialModerate]

Addddd that’s the ballgame

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can believe Lake is ahead.  I can't believe she's ahead by 11.

Oh, it's IA.  That explains it.

[President Johnson]

As believeable as the CCM +13 poll that just came out. At this point, I'm just tired of all the BS polls. Maybe better ignore all the polls and just wait to November 8.

[Dani Rose]

Addddd that’s the ballgame

If by "ballgame" you mean "objectively horrible poll" then yes, I agree.

We could have done a lot better here, but in no universe is Lake winning by this much.

[wbrocks67]

Wow they saw the CCM+13 poll and were like yep, gonna outdo that lol

[Matty]

Wow they saw the CCM+13 poll and were like yep, gonna outdo that lol

I honestly wonder if we are going to start seeing people just stop becoming pollsters as a career

It’s not working right now and there is little evidence it is fixable

[jamestroll]

I don't even understand the point of freaking out about polls now...

Most of them are crap

[wbrocks67]

Wow they saw the CCM+13 poll and were like yep, gonna outdo that lol

I honestly wonder if we are going to start seeing people just stop becoming pollsters as a career

It’s not working right now and there is little evidence it is fixable

Well, on the flip side, there's incentive to be a pollster though. Look at how many low quality polling outfits receive a "B" score on 538. As long as you get a few races right in terms of the winner, you can keep a "good grade". That's why to 538, a Kari Lake +12 poll is the same as her winning by 1 in the end, because you still "called the race correctly", so it gives pollsters who have different motives to basically put out wild results for attention/notoriety and have a chance of not even getting dinged for it

[wbrocks67]

Their last poll was also only 2 weeks ago, and it had Lake +3, which isn't an insane result. So I'm supposed to believe Lake surged 8% in the span of 2 weeks?

[DaleCooper]

Wow they saw the CCM+13 poll and were like yep, gonna outdo that lol

I honestly wonder if we are going to start seeing people just stop becoming pollsters as a career

It’s not working right now and there is little evidence it is fixable

I think the problem is that politics is arguably more of a sport now than it ever had been. Regardless of people complaining about fake polls, the market demands polls that show the exact results that they want to see. Ideally, no one but analysts and real journalists would care about these polls, but sadly a lot of partisan hacks are desperate for a reason to be optimistic.

I can't prove it other than by pointing to some mysterious anecdotes that have found their way into the news over the last couple years, but I do strongly suspect that a lot of the campaigns have good polling data that actually has been corrected to accommodate the errors of 2016, and it's the public that is getting all this crap. But who knows? I don't know.

[wbrocks67]

Wow they saw the CCM+13 poll and were like yep, gonna outdo that lol

I honestly wonder if we are going to start seeing people just stop becoming pollsters as a career

It’s not working right now and there is little evidence it is fixable

I think the problem is that politics is arguably more of a sport now than it ever had been. Regardless of people complaining about fake polls, the market demands polls that show the exact results that they want to see. Ideally, no one but analysts and real journalists would care about these polls, but sadly a lot of partisan hacks are desperate for a reason to be optimistic.

I can't prove it other than by pointing to some mysterious anecdotes that have found their way into the news over the last couple years, but I do strongly suspect that a lot of the campaigns have good polling data that actually has been corrected to accommodate the errors of 2016, and it's the public that is getting all this crap. But who knows? I don't know.

I agree, I would assume the campaigns generally probably have the most "high quality" data. I don't think there's a very high bar for public pollsters, while campaigns would only want the "true best."

Not to mention, there's of course a different standard for pollsters who at least try - Monmouth, Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, etc.

But then you have your subtier like Wick, co/efficient, InsiderAdvantage, etc that don't really have any standards to abide by

[Alben Barkley]

I've been skeptical of the whole "polling is dead" narrative for a while but it's hard to still defend it. Not just because of one or two junk polls like this and the NV one earlier today. But because of how wildly INCONSISTENT they all are this cycle. They are painting completely different, conflicting portraits of the national environment, to a greater extent than I recall ever seeing before. Any narrative from a red wave to a surprise blue wave can be painted based on selective picking of the polls. In 2020, 2018, and 2016, at least the polls more or less pointed to one basic outcome, right or wrong. Here they have just been ALL over the place.

[Calthrina950]

I've been skeptical of the whole "polling is dead" narrative for a while but it's hard to still defend it. Not just because of one or two junk polls like this and the NV one earlier today. But because of how wildly INCONSISTENT they all are this cycle. They are painting completely different, conflicting portraits of the national environment, to a greater extent than I recall ever seeing before. Any narrative from a red wave to a surprise blue wave can be painted based on selective picking of the polls. In 2020, 2018, and 2016, at least the polls more or less pointed to one basic outcome, right or wrong. Here they have just been ALL over the place.

Fully agreed. Election Day cannot come soon enough, so that these doubts can be resolved. I find it highly unlikely that either Lake or Masto will win by double digits, much less that they simultaneously win by double digits. Such a result may have been possible 20 or 30 years ago, but is not possible now.

[Alben Barkley]

I've been skeptical of the whole "polling is dead" narrative for a while but it's hard to still defend it. Not just because of one or two junk polls like this and the NV one earlier today. But because of how wildly INCONSISTENT they all are this cycle. They are painting completely different, conflicting portraits of the national environment, to a greater extent than I recall ever seeing before. Any narrative from a red wave to a surprise blue wave can be painted based on selective picking of the polls. In 2020, 2018, and 2016, at least the polls more or less pointed to one basic outcome, right or wrong. Here they have just been ALL over the place.

Fully agreed. Election Day cannot come soon enough, so that these doubts can be resolved. I find it highly unlikely that either Lake or Masto will win by double digits, much less that they simultaneously win by double digits. Such a result may have been possible 20 or 30 years ago, but is not possible now.

Yep. We're flying blind now and it will be VERY interesting to see which, if any, pollsters nailed it this time. I guess the safest bet based on past performance is still Selzer which looks good for Dems. But who even knows what's going on anymore?

[Hollywood]

Hobbs has struggled to get past 46% in most of the polls, and only wins in a 2018 turnout model.  It wasn't two months ago that Lake was down in AZ by 7 points according to the garbage 538 average that took into account these D-biased methodologies.  Now Lake is leading by 3 points (10 point shift).  So could Lake be winning by 10 points in AZ?  Maybe, but I doubt it.  It's more likely she wins by 4-6 points if trends hold.

[seskoog]

This poll would be closer to accurate if there was a decimal point between the 1s. I can see Lake winning by 1.1 or even 3-4. I can't see her outperforming every R presidential nominee since 1988 and almost matching Ducey four years ago.

[fluffypanther19]

Really no point in polls. They all suck this year. I truly believe Lake will win but not by 11 freaking points.

[Ferguson97]

Nevada 24-points to the left of Arizona lmao

[TodayJunior]

Oh cmon! This is at best an outlier. This isn’t 2004 anymore. Those margins aren’t happening.

Let’s just throw stale spaghetti at the wall, call it a homemade Italian meat pie made by your grandma, and see if people will buy it. Nahhhh