FL: University of North Florida: Gov. DeSantis (R) +14

[2016]

Polls have trended R for Florida, because the early vote looks terrible for them. Democrats are having way too many problems getting their base out in the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  They only have 62,000 Mail-In Votes returned by Democrats in Broward County. Democrats need to run up the votes totals in Broward to have any chance keeping the race close between DeSantis and Crist.  At this point, I think Republicans might even decrease the margin Democrats hold in Broward by 5 points.  Combining VBM and Early In-Person Votes across the state, Republicans are almost tied with Democrats, and Republicans are currently on pace to overtake Democrats among all Early Voters.  

It appears obvious that Republicans will retain a large portion of Trumps 2020 voters, and strip Democrats of some anti-Trump voters.  It's also possible that DeSantis ends up winning Hispanics by a healthy margins.  DeSantis could easily win the state by 8 points.   He could win by more points if Democrats continue struggling to turnout male black voters.

Republicans will have taken over the Combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote tonight. At this rate Republicans will have a 100-200K Vote lead at the end of Early Voting. They are gaining almost 20K a Day.

[2016]

If Governor DeSantis actually does win Miami-Dade, then it truly is over for Democrats in Florida.  After all, once it flips Republican on a statewide level, it is only a matter of time before it flips in a national race.  How do you have a fighting chance in the state without it?  On top of which Republicans already hold the majority in that county's school board, and are close to gaining a majority on the Board of County Commissioners.  

Democrats only lead by 9K Votes in Miami-Dade at the end of Early-In Person/VBM Vote for today.

[2016]

Polls have trended R for Florida, because the early vote looks terrible for them. Democrats are having way too many problems getting their base out in the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  They only have 62,000 Mail-In Votes returned by Democrats in Broward County. Democrats need to run up the votes totals in Broward to have any chance keeping the race close between DeSantis and Crist.  At this point, I think Republicans might even decrease the margin Democrats hold in Broward by 5 points.  Combining VBM and Early In-Person Votes across the state, Republicans are almost tied with Democrats, and Republicans are currently on pace to overtake Democrats among all Early Voters.  

It appears obvious that Republicans will retain a large portion of Trumps 2020 voters, and strip Democrats of some anti-Trump voters.  It's also possible that DeSantis ends up winning Hispanics by a healthy margins.  DeSantis could easily win the state by 8 points.   He could win by more points if Democrats continue struggling to turnout male black voters.

Republicans will have taken over the Combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote tonight. At this rate Republicans will have a 100-200K Vote lead at the end of Early Voting. They are gaining almost 20K a Day.

That's extremely bad.  It just looks like the Democrat Campaign in Florida has collapsed in areas where their core demographic voters are located.  Democrats are losing Hispanics that normally vote for them, and I don't see any place they can make up the loss.  This is throughout the Sunbelt, so Republicans will definitely score greater margins in TX, NV, and AZ then polls indicate.  

FLORIDA VBM/Early In-Person Vote Combined
D - 784,297
R - 783,960
NPA - 368,328

Cased closed Hollywood. This cake is BAKED as many would say.

Florida will hit 2M Votes tomorrow!

Crist is going to get slaughtered on E-Day.

[2016]

"Ian" was the finishing touch on this race. The debate was a desperate attempt by Crist and it failed, similar to the Senate debate for Demings.

I still think the ceiling for DeSantis is around 55% though, which is very good for FL.

Yeah, I agree with this. R's will have a 100K lead heading into E-Day.

D's in FL just ain't as energized as they were in 2020 and DeSantis has been a very popular Governor. Yes, he has made some controversial things but who hasn't. Nobody is perfect.