FL: University of North Florida: Gov. DeSantis (R) +14
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  FL: University of North Florida: Gov. DeSantis (R) +14
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Author Topic: FL: University of North Florida: Gov. DeSantis (R) +14  (Read 1709 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 26, 2022, 07:25:37 AM »

New Poll: Florida Governor by University of North Florida on 2022-10-24

Summary: D: 41%, R: 55%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2022, 08:46:01 AM »

Safe R, nothing to see here.

Embarrassing end for Crist's career.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2022, 09:44:34 AM »

Yes, but I was told that this was guaranteed to be close because of Democrats' "high floor" in FL, Latinos already being "maxed out" in 2020, and FL elections "always being close." Reminded me of the takes about NV being Titanium Tilt/Lean D (inelastic, urban, LATINO Clark County, duh!), which will age just as well.
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Southern Reactionary Dem
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2022, 10:58:00 AM »

Whoa... I guess the bottom is falling out in urban Florida. Given the national environment, early vote and VBM returns, I'm inclined to think this is at least in the realm of being a realistic poll. At some point soon, Florida needs to be considered a safe atlas blue state. It's looking like the inverse of Colorado.
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2022, 11:29:44 AM »

This is what happens when the idiots at the DNC give up on a state they only lost by 3 and then people wonder why we say that Democrats are bad at politics.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2022, 11:41:02 AM »

Bye bye, Charlie
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Horus
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2022, 11:54:16 AM »

This is what happens when the idiots at the DNC give up on a state they only lost by 3 and then people wonder why we say that Democrats are bad at politics.

Florida is being flooded with white retirees and other GOP friendly demographics. There's not much that could've been done.
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progressive85
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2022, 12:02:52 PM »

I never understood how Florida was even won by Barack Obama twice - that needs to be seen as more of a fluke/miracle than any decisive swing state victory because FL is not a swing state.  It's a red state, and it's getting redder by the year.  Focus on GA and AZ - the political winds are shifting in those two states - there's much more room for growth there, and with time, perhaps TX and NC.  The sun ain't shining for any Democrats in FL.  (and the state D party is one of the worst in the country, an absolute disaster).
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citizenZ
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2022, 12:08:44 PM »

This is what happens when the idiots at the DNC give up on a state they only lost by 3 and then people wonder why we say that Democrats are bad at politics.

Florida is being flooded with white retirees and other GOP friendly demographics. There's not much that could've been done.

Yeah. The Al Gore old Jewish voters are probably mostly gone, and there has been an influx of the more "MAGA" middle class style married couples.


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TodayJunior
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2022, 01:20:59 PM »

Yeah I知 inclined to believe this is real. Even in central Florida, I知 seeing some crossover votes for DeSantis/Demings!

Who are these people!?!?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2022, 01:22:53 PM »

Safe Republican, DeSandwich is cruising to reelection.

Too bad our secular king is absent in this thread. He'd probably just say "we don't need FL and TX, it's a 303 map anyways"
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2022, 01:23:52 PM »

This is what happens when the idiots at the DNC give up on a state they only lost by 3 and then people wonder why we say that Democrats are bad at politics.

Florida is being flooded with white retirees and other GOP friendly demographics. There's not much that could've been done.

Yeah. The Al Gore old Jewish voters are probably mostly gone, and there has been an influx of the more "MAGA" middle class style married couples.




Yes I知 curious to see what the final margin is in palm beach. It may be closer than we think.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2022, 01:28:20 PM »

This is what happens when the idiots at the DNC give up on a state they only lost by 3 and then people wonder why we say that Democrats are bad at politics.

Florida is being flooded with white retirees and other GOP friendly demographics. There's not much that could've been done.

It痴 the right choice by the DNC given that there痴 not really any winnable congressional seats and the statewide races were out of reach. However, the huge drop off in investment will be a large part of the rightward shift. The DNC used to drop hundred of millions on the state each cycle that is now missing. The spending advantages are ridiculous on the GOP side and will inflate the margin by a few points.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2022, 04:49:52 PM »

DeSantis isn't winning by 14 pts, University poll
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iceman
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2022, 05:23:47 PM »

at this point Crist may only win Leon, Broward, Orange and Alachua.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2022, 05:25:46 PM »

at this point Crist may only win Leon, Broward, Orange and Alachua.

Lol this is a University poll DeSantis isn't winning by 15 and won't win Miami Dade
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2022, 06:05:01 PM »

Safe Republican, DeSandwich is cruising to reelection.

Too bad our secular king is absent in this thread. He'd probably just say "we don't need FL and TX, it's a 303 map anyways"

He posted after you did. He still seems to believe that a Democratic wave is imminent, At any rate, FL-GOV is Safe R and I think DeSantis is going to win by double digits at this point. And it's looking increasingly likely that Rubio will as well.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2022, 06:18:06 PM »

Polls have trended R for Florida, because the early vote looks terrible for them. Democrats are having way too many problems getting their base out in the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  They only have 62,000 Mail-In Votes returned by Democrats in Broward County. Democrats need to run up the votes totals in Broward to have any chance keeping the race close between DeSantis and Crist.  At this point, I think Republicans might even decrease the margin Democrats hold in Broward by 5 points.  Combining VBM and Early In-Person Votes across the state, Republicans are almost tied with Democrats, and Republicans are currently on pace to overtake Democrats among all Early Voters.  

It appears obvious that Republicans will retain a large portion of Trumps 2020 voters, and strip Democrats of some anti-Trump voters.  It's also possible that DeSantis ends up winning Hispanics by a healthy margins.  DeSantis could easily win the state by 8 points.   He could win by more points if Democrats continue struggling to turnout male black voters.
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2022, 06:19:42 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2022, 06:24:19 PM by Frodo »

If Governor DeSantis actually does win Miami-Dade, then it truly is over for Democrats in Florida.  After all, once it flips Republican on a statewide level, it is only a matter of time before it flips in a national race.  How do you have a fighting chance in the state without it?  On top of which Republicans already hold the majority in that county's school board, and are close to gaining a majority on the Board of County Commissioners.  
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2022, 06:23:31 PM »

Polls have trended R for Florida, because the early vote looks terrible for them. Democrats are having way too many problems getting their base out in the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  They only have 62,000 Mail-In Votes returned by Democrats in Broward County. Democrats need to run up the votes totals in Broward to have any chance keeping the race close between DeSantis and Crist.  At this point, I think Republicans might even decrease the margin Democrats hold in Broward by 5 points.  Combining VBM and Early In-Person Votes across the state, Republicans are almost tied with Democrats, and Republicans are currently on pace to overtake Democrats among all Early Voters.  

It appears obvious that Republicans will retain a large portion of Trumps 2020 voters, and strip Democrats of some anti-Trump voters.  It's also possible that DeSantis ends up winning Hispanics by a healthy margins.  DeSantis could easily win the state by 8 points.   He could win by more points if Democrats continue struggling to turnout male black voters.
Republicans will have taken over the Combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote tonight. At this rate Republicans will have a 100-200K Vote lead at the end of Early Voting. They are gaining almost 20K a Day.
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2022, 06:25:47 PM »

If Governor DeSantis actually does win Miami-Dade, then it truly is over for Democrats in Florida.  After all, once it flips Republican on a statewide level, it is only a matter of time before it flips in a national race.  How do you have a fighting chance in the state without it?  On top of which Republicans already hold the majority in that county's school board, and are close to gaining a majority on the Board of County Commissioners.  
Democrats only lead by 9K Votes in Miami-Dade at the end of Early-In Person/VBM Vote for today.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2022, 06:26:36 PM »

Yeah I知 inclined to believe this is real. Even in central Florida, I知 seeing some crossover votes for DeSantis/Demings!

Who are these people!?!?

They might like the national attention DeSantis is getting. Almost like DeSantis is getting a home state boost in the gubernatorial race because he's become such a national figure and acts like he's running for President even while running for reelection as governor.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2022, 07:01:40 PM »

Marco Rubio will win, but he is a loser.  His performance in the 2016 election, staking a moral high ground against Trump only to become another rubber stamp, made him look like a total clown.  It's not hard to see why Demings will out-perform Crist (who, like Rubio, is also a major loser).
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Hollywood
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2022, 07:16:19 PM »

Polls have trended R for Florida, because the early vote looks terrible for them. Democrats are having way too many problems getting their base out in the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  They only have 62,000 Mail-In Votes returned by Democrats in Broward County. Democrats need to run up the votes totals in Broward to have any chance keeping the race close between DeSantis and Crist.  At this point, I think Republicans might even decrease the margin Democrats hold in Broward by 5 points.  Combining VBM and Early In-Person Votes across the state, Republicans are almost tied with Democrats, and Republicans are currently on pace to overtake Democrats among all Early Voters.  

It appears obvious that Republicans will retain a large portion of Trumps 2020 voters, and strip Democrats of some anti-Trump voters.  It's also possible that DeSantis ends up winning Hispanics by a healthy margins.  DeSantis could easily win the state by 8 points.   He could win by more points if Democrats continue struggling to turnout male black voters.
Republicans will have taken over the Combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote tonight. At this rate Republicans will have a 100-200K Vote lead at the end of Early Voting. They are gaining almost 20K a Day.

That's extremely bad.  It just looks like the Democrat Campaign in Florida has collapsed in areas where their core demographic voters are located.  Democrats are losing Hispanics that normally vote for them, and I don't see any place they can make up the loss.  This is throughout the Sunbelt, so Republicans will definitely score greater margins in TX, NV, and AZ then polls indicate.  
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2022, 07:18:06 PM »

Polls have trended R for Florida, because the early vote looks terrible for them. Democrats are having way too many problems getting their base out in the urban areas of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  They only have 62,000 Mail-In Votes returned by Democrats in Broward County. Democrats need to run up the votes totals in Broward to have any chance keeping the race close between DeSantis and Crist.  At this point, I think Republicans might even decrease the margin Democrats hold in Broward by 5 points.  Combining VBM and Early In-Person Votes across the state, Republicans are almost tied with Democrats, and Republicans are currently on pace to overtake Democrats among all Early Voters.  

It appears obvious that Republicans will retain a large portion of Trumps 2020 voters, and strip Democrats of some anti-Trump voters.  It's also possible that DeSantis ends up winning Hispanics by a healthy margins.  DeSantis could easily win the state by 8 points.   He could win by more points if Democrats continue struggling to turnout male black voters.
Republicans will have taken over the Combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote tonight. At this rate Republicans will have a 100-200K Vote lead at the end of Early Voting. They are gaining almost 20K a Day.

That's extremely bad.  It just looks like the Democrat Campaign in Florida has collapsed in areas where their core demographic voters are located.  Democrats are losing Hispanics that normally vote for them, and I don't see any place they can make up the loss.  This is throughout the Sunbelt, so Republicans will definitely score greater margins in TX, NV, and AZ then polls indicate.  

We don't need FL you guys are losing in another University poll, University of NV where Sisolak is up 2 and CCM is up 13
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