Who wins the senate race in PA

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a really tough one and you can def make a case either way.

On fundamentals alone, Oz should win, probably by a few points. In 2020 PA voted to the right of the nation by ~3% and while universal swing isn't real, Pennsylvania is demographically diverse enough that it tends to swing with the nation. Based on that alone, a tied NPA should yield Oz a tiny victory.

This issue though is this cycle, Republicans have a lot of particular problems in PA that are not helping them. Doug Mastriano seems to be a drag on the entire ticket and has basically given up on serious campaigning, and Oz himself doesn't seem like a great campaigner in terms of enthusiasm. It'll be interesting to see how the national enthusiasm edge which favors Rs and the state enthusiasm edge which favors Ds collide.

Next is polling. Over the summer Fetterman had a huge 10 point lead which has now narrowed to just a 2 point lead according to 538, and given past polling errors in PA, a 2-point lead should make Fetterman worried.  I tend to believe polls in PA are being a bit overreactive though, I definitely buy that Oz is increasing his support due to R consolidation after a very divided primary, but I also have a hard time believing Fetterman outright lost almost 4% given he hasn't had a huge scandal or anything (no the stroke doesn't count, I doubt that alone would erode 4%). I think it might have to do with polling clustering where over the summer only those who were showing Fetterman + 10 results actually become public whereas now the reverse may be somewhat true.

Finally, the individual dynamics of the 2 candidates is very interesting. Dr. Oz seems to lack charisma, especially when compared to Trump, and has sort of tried to paint himself as moderate centrist with varying degrees of success for different groups of voters. One of Oz's strengths is he knows how to give off good optics in front of a camera, but his weakness is he can't be down to earth even if he tried. Fetterman on the other hand is trying to come across as much more down to earth which seems to mostly be viewed as genuine. He's also done a good job at using social media to make things a bit fun. His problem is the stroke has made him a less effective communicator and has allowed Republicans multitude of attack ads against him.

All and all, my guess is Fetterman narrowly wins and infact is more likely to win perhaps than Mark Kelly (who I currently think loses narrowly). At the end of the day, he still leads in a polling average which I think has been made a bit artificially closer due to polls tendencies to cluster. I also really doubt we see as large of a disparity between Senate and Gov as some have suggested there may be. That sort of consolidation on e-day def favors Fetterman. Realistically it could go either way, but if Oz wins he'll almost purely be carried over by a red ripple or wave.

Huh?

Low Hispanic turnout. Hispanics in AZ always seem to experience really bad drop offs in AZ in midterm years, and I don’t see why 2022 would be the year that changes. I’d argue the 2020 AZ electorate was actually more friendly than 2018’s.

Not to mention neither Kelly or Hobbs are Hispanic which around the margins probably also doenst help.

[cg41386]

This is a really tough one and you can def make a case either way.

On fundamentals alone, Oz should win, probably by a few points. In 2020 PA voted to the right of the nation by ~3% and while universal swing isn't real, Pennsylvania is demographically diverse enough that it tends to swing with the nation. Based on that alone, a tied NPA should yield Oz a tiny victory.

This issue though is this cycle, Republicans have a lot of particular problems in PA that are not helping them. Doug Mastriano seems to be a drag on the entire ticket and has basically given up on serious campaigning, and Oz himself doesn't seem like a great campaigner in terms of enthusiasm. It'll be interesting to see how the national enthusiasm edge which favors Rs and the state enthusiasm edge which favors Ds collide.

Next is polling. Over the summer Fetterman had a huge 10 point lead which has now narrowed to just a 2 point lead according to 538, and given past polling errors in PA, a 2-point lead should make Fetterman worried.  I tend to believe polls in PA are being a bit overreactive though, I definitely buy that Oz is increasing his support due to R consolidation after a very divided primary, but I also have a hard time believing Fetterman outright lost almost 4% given he hasn't had a huge scandal or anything (no the stroke doesn't count, I doubt that alone would erode 4%). I think it might have to do with polling clustering where over the summer only those who were showing Fetterman + 10 results actually become public whereas now the reverse may be somewhat true.

Finally, the individual dynamics of the 2 candidates is very interesting. Dr. Oz seems to lack charisma, especially when compared to Trump, and has sort of tried to paint himself as moderate centrist with varying degrees of success for different groups of voters. One of Oz's strengths is he knows how to give off good optics in front of a camera, but his weakness is he can't be down to earth even if he tried. Fetterman on the other hand is trying to come across as much more down to earth which seems to mostly be viewed as genuine. He's also done a good job at using social media to make things a bit fun. His problem is the stroke has made him a less effective communicator and has allowed Republicans multitude of attack ads against him.

All and all, my guess is Fetterman narrowly wins and infact is more likely to win perhaps than Mark Kelly (who I currently think loses narrowly). At the end of the day, he still leads in a polling average which I think has been made a bit artificially closer due to polls tendencies to cluster. I also really doubt we see as large of a disparity between Senate and Gov as some have suggested there may be. That sort of consolidation on e-day def favors Fetterman. Realistically it could go either way, but if Oz wins he'll almost purely be carried over by a red ripple or wave.

Huh?

Low Hispanic turnout. Hispanics in AZ always seem to experience really bad drop offs in AZ in midterm years, and I don’t see why 2022 would be the year that changes. I’d argue the 2020 AZ electorate was actually more friendly than 2018’s.

Not to mention neither Kelly or Hobbs are Hispanic which around the margins probably also doenst help.

This isn't any ordinary midterm, and Kelly is one of the strongest candidates/incumbents running. The chances of him losing are rather low.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a really tough one and you can def make a case either way.

On fundamentals alone, Oz should win, probably by a few points. In 2020 PA voted to the right of the nation by ~3% and while universal swing isn't real, Pennsylvania is demographically diverse enough that it tends to swing with the nation. Based on that alone, a tied NPA should yield Oz a tiny victory.

This issue though is this cycle, Republicans have a lot of particular problems in PA that are not helping them. Doug Mastriano seems to be a drag on the entire ticket and has basically given up on serious campaigning, and Oz himself doesn't seem like a great campaigner in terms of enthusiasm. It'll be interesting to see how the national enthusiasm edge which favors Rs and the state enthusiasm edge which favors Ds collide.

Next is polling. Over the summer Fetterman had a huge 10 point lead which has now narrowed to just a 2 point lead according to 538, and given past polling errors in PA, a 2-point lead should make Fetterman worried.  I tend to believe polls in PA are being a bit overreactive though, I definitely buy that Oz is increasing his support due to R consolidation after a very divided primary, but I also have a hard time believing Fetterman outright lost almost 4% given he hasn't had a huge scandal or anything (no the stroke doesn't count, I doubt that alone would erode 4%). I think it might have to do with polling clustering where over the summer only those who were showing Fetterman + 10 results actually become public whereas now the reverse may be somewhat true.

Finally, the individual dynamics of the 2 candidates is very interesting. Dr. Oz seems to lack charisma, especially when compared to Trump, and has sort of tried to paint himself as moderate centrist with varying degrees of success for different groups of voters. One of Oz's strengths is he knows how to give off good optics in front of a camera, but his weakness is he can't be down to earth even if he tried. Fetterman on the other hand is trying to come across as much more down to earth which seems to mostly be viewed as genuine. He's also done a good job at using social media to make things a bit fun. His problem is the stroke has made him a less effective communicator and has allowed Republicans multitude of attack ads against him.

All and all, my guess is Fetterman narrowly wins and infact is more likely to win perhaps than Mark Kelly (who I currently think loses narrowly). At the end of the day, he still leads in a polling average which I think has been made a bit artificially closer due to polls tendencies to cluster. I also really doubt we see as large of a disparity between Senate and Gov as some have suggested there may be. That sort of consolidation on e-day def favors Fetterman. Realistically it could go either way, but if Oz wins he'll almost purely be carried over by a red ripple or wave.

Huh?

Low Hispanic turnout. Hispanics in AZ always seem to experience really bad drop offs in AZ in midterm years, and I don’t see why 2022 would be the year that changes. I’d argue the 2020 AZ electorate was actually more friendly than 2018’s.

Not to mention neither Kelly or Hobbs are Hispanic which around the margins probably also doenst help.

This isn't any ordinary midterm, and Kelly is one of the strongest candidates/incumbents running. The chances of him losing are rather low.

We shall see, but it’s not like he can afford to lose much ground. The wrench is that AZ had never been treated as this serious of a swing state till recently so maybe things have changed a bit.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

As I suspected.. this country hates people with any disability.. mostly coming from the Republicans.

Being a senator is a quite stressful job and people want someone who is in their full capacity to serve them lol, and please don't 'whataboutme' about Walker, I think he is awful.

[jamestroll]

As I suspected.. this country hates people with any disability.. mostly coming from the Republicans.

Being a senator is a quite stressful job and people want someone who is in their full capacity to serve them lol, and please don't 'whataboutme' about Walker, I think he is awful.
[/quote
Only thing wrong is a speech impediment that will improve as he recovers.

[Ferguson97]

Oz unless he literally goes on TV and says "Trump is the rightful president" or "abortion should be banned from the moment of conception nationwide."

not quite, but I mean... just nearly as bad

No not at all lmao

It's not that bad but "a decision between a woman, her doctor, and her local legislators" is so bad it sounds like something from an Onion headline.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I'd definitely want some more time to see how this plays out but I'll still tentatively say Fetterman. I think that non-Presidential debates are meaningless unless shown otherwise, and until I see evidence otherwise I'm going to stick to my previous prediction.

[Person Man]

Oz unless he literally goes on TV and says "Trump is the rightful president" or "abortion should be banned from the moment of conception nationwide."

not quite, but I mean... just nearly as bad

No not at all lmao

It's not that bad but "a decision between a woman, her doctor, and her local legislators" is so bad it sounds like something from an Onion headline.

It’s like State Rep Joe and State Senator Leo wants to have a threesome with you or something like that. Almost like when your dog starts licking your face or tries hump you when you start getting intimate with you partner.

[Burke Bro]

Oz by 2 or 3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz by 2 or 3.

No because Shapiro is gonna pull Fetterman, Mastriano has no campaign in PA

[Senator Incitatus]

As they say in Istanbul: atta Turk.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fetterman

[bagelman]

I have not been more invested in a political race in a long time, possibly in my life. This election is not just about policy or party, but also whether or not disabled people should be respected and given a chance.

With that said, hell if I know. I don't want to favor Oz but he certainly comes off as more "senatorial" (code for not suffering a temporary disability) and is the Republican in a potential 2010/2014 red wave fueled by unpleasable boomers and right wingers who will hold their nose against Biden, much like some Menendez voters in New Jersey did. Speaking of that state, the fact that Oz is a carpetbagger from New Jersey is not the massive dealbreaker we may have thought; carpetbaggers can win. If it wasn't for the abortion issue and Oz's poor favorables, I'd say Oz would be clearly favored.

The big unknown is how the abortion issue will galvanize turnout among voters who would normally sleep through a midterm. Part of me still thinks we still have this polling error in favor of Democrats, in defiance of what happened in 2020, but that's probably copium.