Who wins the senate race in PA

[MR DARK BRANDON]

?

[Ferguson97]

I still think Fetterman.

[Tekken_Guy]

Oz.

[TheSaint250]

Mehmentum

[Calthrina950]

After this debate, I think Oz will, but it will be a very close race.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fetterman, but it could get quite close and Oz has a chance.

[Eraserhead]

Hopefully Fetterman but it'll be close as it has been for a while.

Debates often don't matter much in non-Presidential races. Most people don't watch them.

[citizenZ]

Dr. Oz

[Gracile]

Oz. Not because of the debate, but because of the fundamentals of running in a state that leans to the nation's right in a Republican-leaning midterm year.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Fetterman +2

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Tonight will be the first non-presidential debate to matter in years. But still Fetterman by 0.4%.

[SnowLabrador]

I didn't watch the debate, but I still think Oz wins due to the national environment.

[Tekken_Guy]

Oz. Not because of the debate, but because of the fundamentals of running in a state that leans to the nation's right in a Republican-leaning midterm year.

I assume Walker, Masters, and Laxalt all Win too in this scenario?

[Aurelius]

I give Oz about a 50-55% chance. Gun to my head I say he wins by 1.2 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I give Oz about a 50-55% chance. Gun to my head I say he wins by 1.2 points.

You think Fetterman is gonna lose with Shapiro, no, Mastriano hasn't run a single ad

[Lief 🗽]

Still a toss-up but Oz is more likely to win.

[Dani Rose]

Fetterman, same as it's been all year. We nearly beat Toomey twice in R-friendly environments, and Mehmet Oz doesn't even scratch Pat Toomey as a politician. It'll be close, but it'll be fine.

[Skill and Chance]

Oz unless he literally goes on TV and says "Trump is the rightful president" or "abortion should be banned from the moment of conception nationwide."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz unless he literally goes on TV and says "Trump is the rightful president" or "abortion should be banned from the moment of conception nationwide."

Most people have made up their minds even before this debate as Early voting has already began

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still a toss-up but Oz is more likely to win.

Yeah and Oz hasn't lead in a single poll , the only poll Oz lead in was Wick

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a really tough one and you can def make a case either way.

On fundamentals alone, Oz should win, probably by a few points. In 2020 PA voted to the right of the nation by ~3% and while universal swing isn't real, Pennsylvania is demographically diverse enough that it tends to swing with the nation. Based on that alone, a tied NPA should yield Oz a tiny victory.

This issue though is this cycle, Republicans have a lot of particular problems in PA that are not helping them. Doug Mastriano seems to be a drag on the entire ticket and has basically given up on serious campaigning, and Oz himself doesn't seem like a great campaigner in terms of enthusiasm. It'll be interesting to see how the national enthusiasm edge which favors Rs and the state enthusiasm edge which favors Ds collide.

Next is polling. Over the summer Fetterman had a huge 10 point lead which has now narrowed to just a 2 point lead according to 538, and given past polling errors in PA, a 2-point lead should make Fetterman worried.  I tend to believe polls in PA are being a bit overreactive though, I definitely buy that Oz is increasing his support due to R consolidation after a very divided primary, but I also have a hard time believing Fetterman outright lost almost 4% given he hasn't had a huge scandal or anything (no the stroke doesn't count, I doubt that alone would erode 4%). I think it might have to do with polling clustering where over the summer only those who were showing Fetterman + 10 results actually become public whereas now the reverse may be somewhat true.

Finally, the individual dynamics of the 2 candidates is very interesting. Dr. Oz seems to lack charisma, especially when compared to Trump, and has sort of tried to paint himself as moderate centrist with varying degrees of success for different groups of voters. One of Oz's strengths is he knows how to give off good optics in front of a camera, but his weakness is he can't be down to earth even if he tried. Fetterman on the other hand is trying to come across as much more down to earth which seems to mostly be viewed as genuine. He's also done a good job at using social media to make things a bit fun. His problem is the stroke has made him a less effective communicator and has allowed Republicans multitude of attack ads against him.

All and all, my guess is Fetterman narrowly wins and infact is more likely to win perhaps than Mark Kelly (who I currently think loses narrowly). At the end of the day, he still leads in a polling average which I think has been made a bit artificially closer due to polls tendencies to cluster. I also really doubt we see as large of a disparity between Senate and Gov as some have suggested there may be. That sort of consolidation on e-day def favors Fetterman. Realistically it could go either way, but if Oz wins he'll almost purely be carried over by a red ripple or wave.

[cg41386]

This is a really tough one and you can def make a case either way.

On fundamentals alone, Oz should win, probably by a few points. In 2020 PA voted to the right of the nation by ~3% and while universal swing isn't real, Pennsylvania is demographically diverse enough that it tends to swing with the nation. Based on that alone, a tied NPA should yield Oz a tiny victory.

This issue though is this cycle, Republicans have a lot of particular problems in PA that are not helping them. Doug Mastriano seems to be a drag on the entire ticket and has basically given up on serious campaigning, and Oz himself doesn't seem like a great campaigner in terms of enthusiasm. It'll be interesting to see how the national enthusiasm edge which favors Rs and the state enthusiasm edge which favors Ds collide.

Next is polling. Over the summer Fetterman had a huge 10 point lead which has now narrowed to just a 2 point lead according to 538, and given past polling errors in PA, a 2-point lead should make Fetterman worried.  I tend to believe polls in PA are being a bit overreactive though, I definitely buy that Oz is increasing his support due to R consolidation after a very divided primary, but I also have a hard time believing Fetterman outright lost almost 4% given he hasn't had a huge scandal or anything (no the stroke doesn't count, I doubt that alone would erode 4%). I think it might have to do with polling clustering where over the summer only those who were showing Fetterman + 10 results actually become public whereas now the reverse may be somewhat true.

Finally, the individual dynamics of the 2 candidates is very interesting. Dr. Oz seems to lack charisma, especially when compared to Trump, and has sort of tried to paint himself as moderate centrist with varying degrees of success for different groups of voters. One of Oz's strengths is he knows how to give off good optics in front of a camera, but his weakness is he can't be down to earth even if he tried. Fetterman on the other hand is trying to come across as much more down to earth which seems to mostly be viewed as genuine. He's also done a good job at using social media to make things a bit fun. His problem is the stroke has made him a less effective communicator and has allowed Republicans multitude of attack ads against him.

All and all, my guess is Fetterman narrowly wins and infact is more likely to win perhaps than Mark Kelly (who I currently think loses narrowly). At the end of the day, he still leads in a polling average which I think has been made a bit artificially closer due to polls tendencies to cluster. I also really doubt we see as large of a disparity between Senate and Gov as some have suggested there may be. That sort of consolidation on e-day def favors Fetterman. Realistically it could go either way, but if Oz wins he'll almost purely be carried over by a red ripple or wave.

Huh?

[wbrocks67]

Oz unless he literally goes on TV and says "Trump is the rightful president" or "abortion should be banned from the moment of conception nationwide."

not quite, but I mean... just nearly as bad

[Aurelius]

Oz unless he literally goes on TV and says "Trump is the rightful president" or "abortion should be banned from the moment of conception nationwide."

not quite, but I mean... just nearly as bad

No not at all lmao

[jamestroll]

As I suspected.. this country hates people with any disability.. mostly coming from the Republicans.