NH Emerson: Biden +1

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1584749378660864001

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nonsense. No republican is winning NH in 2024

[Spectator]

Add at least 9 points to Biden's margin and that's probably what you end up with. Trump's 43% is probably accurate.

[TodayJunior]

Bonkers. This won't even be competitive in 2024. I've changed my position on NH  - it's blue now no matter who the candidate is. Ronny Donny Fe Fi Fo Fonny will fall flat.

[MT Treasurer]

Same poll only had Hassan up 3. NH is about as "unpredictable" and "elastic" as IA at the federal level.

[Ragnaroni]

New Hampshire is a lost cause, its like Colorado : a waste of time better spent in a more valuable state.

[DaleCooper]

Fake poll.

[President Johnson]

Add at least 9 points to Biden's margin and that's probably what you end up with. Trump's 43% is probably accurate.

I think he'll get at least 45%. Still pretty astonishing that Trump almost won New Hampshire in 2016.

[Spectator]

Add at least 9 points to Biden's margin and that's probably what you end up with. Trump's 43% is probably accurate.

I think he'll get at least 45%. Still pretty astonishing that Trump almost won New Hampshire in 2016.

More accurate to say that it's pretty astonishing that Hillary almost lost it.

[Gracile]

Add a zero to the end of this poll margin, and that would probably be closer to the truth.

[Vosem]

New Hampshire elected a pretty ideologically conservative Republican trifecta in 2020 and 2022, and it's a really elastic state with lots of persuadable voters. I really doubt this is right (see Bolduc losing by 10 in 2022; Biden is less popular than Hassan but not by that much), but I don't think D+1 in NH is ridiculous or anything.

(FTR I don't even think D+1 in NH would be incompatible with a national Democratic victory; NH almost always swings pretty hard against the incumbent -- the last time it moved towards an incumbent party was 1996, when there was a huge Democratic improvement in the Northeast -- and universal swing to a position where NH is D+1 translated to a Democratic victory in 2008/2012, and Trump just barely carrying WI in 2016 by 0.13%. It's also pretty demographically stable; it's not someplace like Metro Atlanta where 2012 numbers are ridiculously out-of-date.)