NM-GOV (Trafalgar): Ronchetti +1.1

[Real Texan Politics]

Certainly a winnable race for Ronchetti, but how's Trafalgar's track record in New Mexico?
https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1584702497993936896?s=20&t=uVF6-T...
_{This also once again proves that lolbertarians ruin everything.}

[Person Man]

How many Italian and Irish factory workers who are afraid to say they are Republicans because they don’t want people to think they’re racist live in New Mexico?

[Calthrina950]

This is the first poll I've seen with Ronchetti leading Grisham. I still have a strong feeling that Grisham will win, but if the red wave does manifest, I believe Ronchetti will upset her.

[TodayJunior]

i don't see how NM flips but definitely one to watch should there be a wave.

[Duke of York]

can Trafalgar just admit they make up numbers to push a narrative?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They just telling us what we already know in this Environment it's a 303 map but they  don't realize like last time that Early voting is gonna put Ds ahead that's why they polled MI wrong Trump +1

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This is the first poll I've seen with Ronchetti leading Grisham. I still have a strong feeling that Grisham will win, but if the red wave does manifest, I believe Ronchetti will upset her.

If Ronchetti and Dixon outrun the polls (not necessarily win), it'll be a really good data point that the Covid hawk backlash is very real.

[Aurelius]

This is the first poll I've seen with Ronchetti leading Grisham. I still have a strong feeling that Grisham will win, but if the red wave does manifest, I believe Ronchetti will upset her.

If Ronchetti and Dixon outrun the polls (not necessarily win), it'll be a really good data point that the Covid hawk backlash is very real.

Yeah, NM was one of only two states (along with California) to return to full lockdowns and stay-at-home orders for winter 2020-21.

[Aurelius]

IT'S HAPPENING

[Ferguson97]

This is the first poll I've seen with Ronchetti leading Grisham. I still have a strong feeling that Grisham will win, but if the red wave does manifest, I believe Ronchetti will upset her.

If Ronchetti and Dixon outrun the polls (not necessarily win), it'll be a really good data point that the Covid hawk backlash is very real.

1 year and a half after any covid restrictions?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IT'S HAPPENING

Lol this is Trafalgar

[wbrocks67]

can Trafalgar just admit they make up numbers to push a narrative?

lol exactly, and given their track record in the West...

[Calthrina950]

This is the first poll I've seen with Ronchetti leading Grisham. I still have a strong feeling that Grisham will win, but if the red wave does manifest, I believe Ronchetti will upset her.

If Ronchetti and Dixon outrun the polls (not necessarily win), it'll be a really good data point that the Covid hawk backlash is very real.

1 year and a half after any covid restrictions?

The pandemic is no longer a major issue for most voters, but it would be foolish to think that they haven't forgotten about it. Whitmer and Grisham had some of the toughest coronavirus responses of any Governor, and that seems to have polarized opinions in their states about them.

[Senator Incitatus]

consensus: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

Trafalgar: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

without fail, some red avatar: how DARE you publish such a FRAUDULENT poll

[wbrocks67]

consensus: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

Trafalgar: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

without fail, some red avatar: how DARE you publish such a FRAUDULENT poll

Where is the consensus this is a toss-up race? I think every single recent poll has been at least Grisham up by 5.

[Calthrina950]

consensus: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

Trafalgar: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

without fail, some red avatar: how DARE you publish such a FRAUDULENT poll

Not just some red avatar. One particular red avatar, who will immediately come in to dismiss any polls that are even remotely favorable to Republicans and insist that Democrats are actually ahead in that particular race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GRISHAM isn't losing , this is the same as their MN and GA poll

[GeorgiaModerate]

consensus: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

Trafalgar: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

without fail, some red avatar: how DARE you publish such a FRAUDULENT poll

"Toss-up"?  The consensus has been Likely D or at minimum a strong Lean D.  The current 538 polling average (which includes this poll) is MLG+7.6.

Trafalgar is going to come out of this cycle looking either brilliant or idiotic.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

consensus: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

Trafalgar: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

without fail, some red avatar: how DARE you publish such a FRAUDULENT poll

Where is the consensus this is a toss-up race? I think every single recent poll has been at least Grisham up by 5.

Given the general patterns of independent/undecided voters, five points but under 50 usually isn't quite safe. Grisham is definitely still the favorite, but this is a good bellwether race if a red wave truly manifests.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

consensus: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

Trafalgar: This is a toss-up race (either candidate could win).

without fail, some red avatar: how DARE you publish such a FRAUDULENT poll

"Toss-up"?  The consensus has been Likely D or at minimum a strong Lean D.  The current 538 polling average (which includes this poll) is MLG+7.6.

Trafalgar is going to come out of this cycle looking either brilliant or idiotic.

There is no way GRISHAM and Walz loses if Shapiro and Fetterman and Evers win