Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[MillennialModerate]

Closer to Safe R. There isn’t a single one that has much of a chance of flipping other then AZ06 and even that is a serious reach

[President Johnson]

The lunatics in the House are absolutely going to offer nothing but nonstop impeachment attempts, pointless investigations, and fruitless attempts to gut social programs. Added to a possible Trump independent run, what's the likelihood of Biden turning that into an argument that gets us the trifecta back in 2024?

Yeah the one good thing about this is that Biden will have a very clear foil for the next 2 years if things go awry within the House/legislating.

While Republicans are tearing each other apart with such a narrow majority. Good luck, Kevin, to get MTG and Brian Fitzpatrick on the same page.

It also relieves the pressure on Democrats to get meaningful stuff passed with a one seat majority that has practically no room for error at all. However, I'd still prefer a Democratic majority any need of the week.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually pretty funny:
https://twitter.com/fud31/status/1592189463928901632?t=7SpZe0OnWNwuEnKlQfKoaA&am...

[Hammy]

Any update on Arizona? Having this one uncalled race is driving me nuts

[Dani Rose]

The lunatics in the House are absolutely going to offer nothing but nonstop impeachment attempts, pointless investigations, and fruitless attempts to gut social programs. Added to a possible Trump independent run, what's the likelihood of Biden turning that into an argument that gets us the trifecta back in 2024?

Yeah the one good thing about this is that Biden will have a very clear foil for the next 2 years if things go awry within the House/legislating.

While Republicans are tearing each other apart with such a narrow majority. Good luck, Kevin, to get MTG and Brian Fitzpatrick on the same page.

It also relieves the pressure on Democrats to get meaningful stuff passed with a one seat majority that has practically no room for error at all. However, I'd still prefer a Democratic majority any need of the week.

Agreed with the last part. But the major thing here, I think, is that the House majority is already in a massive spotlight; people know it's going to be bad, people know the balance will shift the instant someone passes away or resigns, and people are going to hate it. Boehner's obstructionism slipped under the public radar, but whoever leads this Lovecraftian nightmare is going to have no such luck. Also, whether or not Democratic legislation passes is now in the hands of a small band of coastal moderates, and if some lunatic ends up taking the Speakership on a technicality, I could absolutely see those people - Kean, Fitzpatrick, Lawler, etc. - breaking ranks, even if it's just so prop up their futures.

[2016]

Interesting move considering that she just led the party into their third consecutive disappointing national election result.

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1592229733642928128?s=20&t=AdegD_KYV...

What you say here is very, very misleading. In 2020 Trump lost BUT Republicans won 13 House Seats + many crucial Senate Seats like IA, MT, NC, ME, SC. How do you call this a disappointing Result is beyond my imagination. The 2021 GA Runoff losses can be sorely blamed on Trump, not McDaniel.

[ExSky]

He's still trying to gaslight everyone into thinking they did well in their predictions

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1592232102120271872

I’ve seen enough. Dave Wasserman is absolutely washed.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592241259141554178?t=NAXTagkmBbraqdsT...

In AZ-06
As for now
Juan Ciscomani (R) 159,838 50.33%
Kirsten Engel (D) 157,764 49.67%

Cochise: 8,262 ballots left, let's say they break 66-34 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 5,452
Engel 2,810

Pinal: 9,112 ballots left, let's say half of them are in AZ-06 and they break 57-43 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 2,596
Engel 1,960

This will lead us to approximately the following result
Juan Ciscomani (R) 167,886 50.81%
Kirsten Engel (D) 162,534 49.19%


Pima: 38,874 ballots left, let's say half of them (19,437) are in AZ-06 and to win this race by exactly 1 vote Engel needs to net at minimum 12,394 votes or about 63.76% of the remaining ballots, which I can't see happening

[wbrocks67]

Does AZ-06 cover all of Pinal and Cochise though?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does AZ-06 cover all of Pinal and Cochise though?

No, just segments. It takes in most of Cochise except for a few heavily Hispanic border precincts and for Pinal it just takes in Casa Grande and Eloy basically.

[wbrocks67]

CA updated; nearly 4M still to count.

Turnout will be about ~11M, nearly 2M under 2021 (12.8M)

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1592249861147181056

[Not Me, Us]

I haven't kept up much today, I have an essay to write, but how is Hobbs holding up?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't kept up much today, I have an essay to write, but how is Hobbs holding up?

She's still in good shape.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592241259141554178?t=NAXTagkmBbraqdsT...

In AZ-06
As for now
Juan Ciscomani (R) 159,838 50.33%
Kirsten Engel (D) 157,764 49.67%

Cochise: 8,262 ballots left, let's say they break 66-34 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 5,452
Engel 2,810

Pinal: 9,112 ballots left, let's say half of them are in AZ-06 and they break 57-43 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 2,596
Engel 1,960

This will lead us to approximately the following result
Juan Ciscomani (R) 167,886 50.81%
Kirsten Engel (D) 162,534 49.19%


Pima: 38,874 ballots left, let's say half of them (19,437) are in AZ-06 and to win this race by exactly 1 vote Engel needs to net at minimum 12,394 votes or about 63.76% of the remaining ballots, which I can't see happening

How do they lean?

[wbrocks67]

Guess Clark will add some of these tonight?

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1592030041810305024

[Dani Rose]

I haven't kept up much today, I have an essay to write, but how is Hobbs holding up?

Barring something weird, Lake is done. She hasn't hit a single benchmark needed to overcome Hobbs' lead.

[Not Me, Us]

I haven't kept up much today, I have an essay to write, but how is Hobbs holding up?

Barring something weird, Lake is done. She hasn't hit a single benchmark needed to overcome Hobbs' lead.

This pleases me.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592241259141554178?t=NAXTagkmBbraqdsT...

In AZ-06
As for now
Juan Ciscomani (R) 159,838 50.33%
Kirsten Engel (D) 157,764 49.67%

Cochise: 8,262 ballots left, let's say they break 66-34 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 5,452
Engel 2,810

Pinal: 9,112 ballots left, let's say half of them are in AZ-06 and they break 57-43 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 2,596
Engel 1,960

This will lead us to approximately the following result
Juan Ciscomani (R) 167,886 50.81%
Kirsten Engel (D) 162,534 49.19%


Pima: 38,874 ballots left, let's say half of them (19,437) are in AZ-06 and to win this race by exactly 1 vote Engel needs to net at minimum 12,394 votes or about 63.76% of the remaining ballots, which I can't see happening

How do they lean?

Based on the data I've seen before, Pima's bluer precincts counted a lower percentage of ballots than the red ones. So I think the remaining votes will break slightly more favorable to Engel than the county overall, maybe something like 56-44 or 57-43. Still not enough for her to take the lead. The only hope for her is that all ballots left to be counted in Pinal are outside of AZ-06 and most of the ballots left to be counted in Cochise are also outside of the district, but it is very unlikely

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maricopa to drop more results tonight in the 6pm MST hour, but the number of votes is unknown.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592241259141554178?t=NAXTagkmBbraqdsT...
In AZ-06
As for now
Juan Ciscomani (R) 159,838 50.33%
Kirsten Engel (D) 157,764 49.67%

Cochise: 8,262 ballots left, let's say they break 66-34 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 5,452
Engel 2,810

Pinal: 9,112 ballots left, let's say half of them are in AZ-06 and they break 57-43 for Ciscomani
Ciscomani 2,596
Engel 1,960

This will lead us to approximately the following result
Juan Ciscomani (R) 167,886 50.81%
Kirsten Engel (D) 162,534 49.19%


Pima: 38,874 ballots left, let's say half of them (19,437) are in AZ-06 and to win this race by exactly 1 vote Engel needs to net at minimum 12,394 votes or about 63.76% of the remaining ballots, which I can't see happening

In the 2020 election, 39% of the ballots in Pima were cast in what is now AZ-06, not 50%.

[Person Man]

I haven't kept up much today, I have an essay to write, but how is Hobbs holding up?

Barring something weird, Lake is done. She hasn't hit a single benchmark needed to overcome Hobbs' lead.

This pleases me.

People just hate her. Not quite as much as how Ass and that brain damaged abortionist gnaws at my soul and faith in humanity, but close. Obsessed? Maybe. Not as much as Trump is with Hilary.

[Spectator]

RCV for ME-02 o be completed tomorrow. Alaska updates tomorrow too, but RCV won’t be announced there until Nov. 23.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, so McCarthy clearly does not have the votes

https://twitter.com/benpershing/status/1592254429113520129

[Dani Rose]

LMAO, so McCarthy clearly does not have the votes

https://twitter.com/benpershing/status/1592254429113520129

Well, at least he has more principles than Van Drew.

[Person Man]

LMAO, so McCarthy clearly does not have the votes

https://twitter.com/benpershing/status/1592254429113520129

This looks really bad. It’s almost embarrassing to the point one averts their eyes in secondhand humiliation.