Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Fancyarcher]

Also this entire election cycle, really makes Nate Silver's whole "Democrats aren't releasing internals, because they look bad" spiel, insufferably idiotic in retrospect.

Yeah. I was a loyal follower starting in '08 but he's gotten progressively worse over the years and this year the whole 538 team has been especially smug and annoying. I know he's an aggregator, not a pollster, but someone of his caliber should be better at figuring this out.
 
The whole 538 operation seems to be in a bit of a shambles right now and rightfully so. Some of the later ariticles and tweets from him were terribly defensive and it seems he bought into the TRASHfalger and other right-wing hack polls used to game the averages.

Nate should just stick to numbers as his day job. He absolutely sucks in terms of punditry, and made some embarrassing mistakes this cycle.

[Ferguson97]

Do Democrats still have a chance at the House?

No. Mike Garcia’s victory is all but guaranteed. So is Boebert’s. Then, Democrats would have to get over 75% of all remaining districts- which simply isn’t realistic, given that Republicans are leading in a lot of them.

I like how the goal posts shift. First the House is "Safe R" and now a Democratic majority "simply isn't realistic"...

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis will beat Trump and hopefully this night is remembered as the disappointing 1978 to the victorious 1980 in 2024 .

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also this entire election cycle, really makes Nate Silver's whole "Democrats aren't releasing internals, because they look bad" spiel, insufferably idiotic in retrospect.

Yeah. I was a loyal follower starting in '08 but he's gotten progressively worse over the years and this year the whole 538 team has been especially smug and annoying. I know he's an aggregator, not a pollster, but someone of his caliber should be better at figuring this out.
 
The whole 538 operation seems to be in a bit of a shambles right now and rightfully so. Some of the later ariticles and tweets from him were terribly defensive and it seems he bought into the TRASHfalger and other right-wing hack polls used to game the averages.

Nate should just stick to numbers as his day job. He absolutely sucks in terms of punditry, and made some embarrassing mistakes this cycle.

I’ve gotten the feeling from his Twitter feed that he’s somewhat losing interest in 538 in favor of his poker playing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DeSantis will beat Trump

Off topic.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the only outstanding seats that are relatively safe to call that haven't been called by NYT are ME-02, AK-AL, CO-08, CA-06, and CA-21. CA-03, CA-45, CA-13, and OR-06 are probably getting close to being off the table.

I would say NY-22 but from what I've read it's not impossible for Canole to make up a 4k deficit with 9k outstanding mail votes which he's been winning by a crazy amount already. It's just unlikely.

Colorado 3 is def close but there's too much uncertainty over what remains as certain counties in the state seem a bit incompetent in knowing how many ballots remain.

OR-05, CA-47, and CA-49 have clear trajectories assuming no suprises, but I wouldn't go as far to call them yet.

OR-5 is a pure tossup

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis will beat Trump

Off topic.

No cause I think these results will help defeat Trump

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know where the LA Counting place is? You'd think that of all districts, CA-27 ballots would take the longest to arrive but NYT seems to assume remaining votes are pretty equally distributed throughout the county. If that's accurate, they estimate a total of 200k votes in CA-27, but to me that seems a bit low. About 350k votes were cast in 2020 for reference.

[Atlas Force]

Also this entire election cycle, really makes Nate Silver's whole "Democrats aren't releasing internals, because they look bad" spiel, insufferably idiotic in retrospect.

Yeah. I was a loyal follower starting in '08 but he's gotten progressively worse over the years and this year the whole 538 team has been especially smug and annoying. I know he's an aggregator, not a pollster, but someone of his caliber should be better at figuring this out.
 
The whole 538 operation seems to be in a bit of a shambles right now and rightfully so. Some of the later ariticles and tweets from him were terribly defensive and it seems he bought into the TRASHfalger and other right-wing hack polls used to game the averages.

Nate should just stick to numbers as his day job. He absolutely sucks in terms of punditry, and made some embarrassing mistakes this cycle.

I’ve gotten the feeling from his Twitter feed that he’s somewhat losing interest in 538 in favor of his poker playing.

Can’t say I blame him.

Also we’re on Page 420 now!

[NOVA Green]

Well with that all said and done, I guess now's as good a time as any to say that I voted for John Fetterman.

While I would have liked the Republicans to have taken control of the Senate, I just couldn't in good faith vote for a fellow healthcare professional who willfully pushed fringe and non-scientific treatments.  It goes against every ethical responsibility we have as doctors and it gives false hope to people who want to believe that these treatments actually offer real healthcare benefits. 

Also: congratulations, CCM.  Always for minority women in power.

My Mom who just recently moved back to the USA after (3) years of living overseas is basically homeless, and currently staying with relatives in SE PA around York County.

Texted her just after ED and her and her cousin's wife are celebrating until the wee hours of the night, and totally celebrating both the Shapiro and Fetterman wins.

PA might have a tons of Senior Citizens, but anecdotal family stories, appears that DEMs significantly overperformed among the 65+ pop in both PA-GOV and PA-SEN races.

Really wishing my Grandma and Grandpa were still alive, not to mention my Aunts and Uncles on my Mother's side.

Anybody who has never visited Gettysburg has no idea what a real American Civil War looked like.

German-American relatives on my mother's Grandparents side stuffed boots up the roofs of the Dutch Ovens when Robert E. Lee's armies marched up North.

My Grandfather who passed away around (10) years ago at the age of (91 yrs) fought in WW II in the Battle of the Bulge in WW II.

He was not drafted but volunteered, after the Japs hit Pearl Harbor, along with many of his other brothers, and knew the difference between right and wrong when it came to things like Fascism and Nazism.

Anyways--- rant aside, PA has tons of Seniors and COVID is still a thing.

Trump f**ked up all that, plus the entire "jobs coming back to America" isn't really a Trump thing, especially with CHIPS.

Fetterman has a decent bio, plus Shapiro seems pretty decent for GOV.

Meanwhile in Western PA, got tons of relatives in Pittsburgh, who are Orthodox Jewish bcs of many of my nieces marrying men from the area, and they voted overwhelmingly DEM in '22, regardless of the "Patriarch" who had a rep as a Jewish Trumpista back in the dayz that caused a bit of stress between my older sister & husband, way back in the '16 GE Presidential Election.

I digress... still PA is close to my heart and family history for decades, and it is fascinating that somehow the state of Eisenhower is reverting to their roots after the massive rejection which the general did to Barry Goldwater in the '64 GE PRES Election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the only outstanding seats that are relatively safe to call that haven't been called by NYT are ME-02, AK-AL, CO-08, CA-06, and CA-21. CA-03, CA-45, CA-13, and OR-06 are probably getting close to being off the table.

I would say NY-22 but from what I've read it's not impossible for Canole to make up a 4k deficit with 9k outstanding mail votes which he's been winning by a crazy amount already. It's just unlikely.

Colorado 3 is def close but there's too much uncertainty over what remains as certain counties in the state seem a bit incompetent in knowing how many ballots remain.

OR-05, CA-47, and CA-49 have clear trajectories assuming no suprises, but I wouldn't go as far to call them yet.

OR-5 is a pure tossup

A path for McLeod Skinner relies on the remaining Clackamas batch being extremely favorable. Part of the reason Chavez-DeRemer seems to be doing so well in the County is because she was the mayor of Happy Valley, plus Drazan is from Clackamas iirc. If she's going to have a huge overperformance in the district, Clackamas would be exactly where it'd be.

McLeod skinner isn't entirely out of it, but idk if you can rely on Clackamas being D+2 being a fluke

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1591632923480182785?s=46&t=PEqIZFWVaYx...

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the only outstanding seats that are relatively safe to call that haven't been called by NYT are ME-02, AK-AL, CO-08, CA-06, and CA-21. CA-03, CA-45, CA-13, and OR-06 are probably getting close to being off the table.

I would say NY-22 but from what I've read it's not impossible for Canole to make up a 4k deficit with 9k outstanding mail votes which he's been winning by a crazy amount already. It's just unlikely.

Colorado 3 is def close but there's too much uncertainty over what remains as certain counties in the state seem a bit incompetent in knowing how many ballots remain.

OR-05, CA-47, and CA-49 have clear trajectories assuming no suprises, but I wouldn't go as far to call them yet.

OR-5 is a pure tossup

No it’s not and if you didn’t primary Schrader , you guys would have won this seat . Both Dems and republicans lost a Portland area seat due to primarying incumbents (WA-3 and OR-5)

[Ferguson97]

This might not be good analysis, but given that so many of the House races have been regionalized (good R performance in NY/NJ/FL, good D performance everywhere else), and that Dems won WA03 and are very likely to win OR06, I feel pretty good about OR05.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This might not be good analysis, but given that so many of the House races have been regionalized (good R performance in NY/NJ/FL, good D performance everywhere else), and that Dems won WA03 and are very likely to win OR06, I feel pretty good about OR05.

Eh I don't think that's how it works. If there's one thing this cycle has shown it's the universal swing isn't real, even within a state. Also OR-06 is like 2-5 points bluer than OR-05 depending upon what matric you use, and it seems like Salinas won't end up winning by very much.

[Dani Rose]

This might not be good analysis, but given that so many of the House races have been regionalized (good R performance in NY/NJ/FL, good D performance everywhere else), and that Dems won WA03 and are very likely to win OR06, I feel pretty good about OR05.

Given the way late ballots from much less fundamentally left-wing states have been going, I just can't see the remaining returns in Clackamas being so bad as to not give McLeod-Skinner at least a chance. I could be wrong about that! But right now, I just don't see how much of an overperformance happens when Oregon's blue areas are so ridiculously culturally leftist. Add to that the last chunk of votes in Multnomah - small, but extremely blue - and I feel good still.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This might not be good analysis, but given that so many of the House races have been regionalized (good R performance in NY/NJ/FL, good D performance everywhere else), and that Dems won WA03 and are very likely to win OR06, I feel pretty good about OR05.

OR-6 is to the left of OR-5 and I really never expected OR-6 to go GOP. I thought if republicans got that district we’d get 235+ house seats along with her 52+ senate seats

[NOVA Green]

Well with that all said and done, I guess now's as good a time as any to say that I voted for John Fetterman.

While I would have liked the Republicans to have taken control of the Senate, I just couldn't in good faith vote for a fellow healthcare professional who willfully pushed fringe and non-scientific treatments.  It goes against every ethical responsibility we have as doctors and it gives false hope to people who want to believe that these treatments actually offer real healthcare benefits. 

Also: congratulations, CCM.  Always for minority women in power.

Thank you very much!

Don't thank me.  I just did what I needed to do as a (future) doctor who will never put money ahead of her patients and a woman who cares about her rights. 

You also a fellow Doctor Who fan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_Who

[It’s so Joever]

DeSantis will beat Trump and hopefully this night is remembered as the disappointing 1978 to the victorious 1980 in 2024 .

As long as your side doesn’t go full fascist whatever. But you were doing that…I hope this changes things. DeSantis seems more like an opportunist with little care for Trumpism beyond electoral appeal which honestly this country can survive.

[Nerd]

Apparently Clackamas will drop tonight.

[Ferguson97]

God he just looks so creepy. Is that woman in the background even his wife? Ma'am, blink three times if you need help.

[Dani Rose]

God he just looks so creepy. Is that woman in the background even his wife? Ma'am, blink three times if you need help.

Skeletor with hair, I'm telling you.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In AZ-06, Ciscomani is up by 35% in Cochise County portion with 82% in. Trump won the Cochise portion by 31% in 2020.

Ciscomani is up by 13% in Pinal with 86% in. Trump won it by 10%.

Do these margins hold for Ciscomani or is there reason to believe the outstanding ballots will be more favorable to Ds? Given he's underperforming in Graham and Greenlee and Engel seems to be doing fine in Pima, he needs to make up the overperformance somewhere.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Apparently Clackamas will drop tonight.

do you know what time?  It's almost 9 pm.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God he just looks so creepy. Is that woman in the background even his wife? Ma'am, blink three times if you need help.

Skeletor with hair, I'm telling you.

What a nice young man!