Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[S019]

Holding the Senate while the President is deeply unpopular and inflation is very high is a truly incredible result and it is amazing what Democrats have managed to do while facing such an uphill battle. It's important not to forget this, even if Republicans ultimately win the House, this was an incredible performance by Democrats and there is much reason to celebrate, we can lament the missed opportunities later.

[Skill and Chance]

Decreased turnout is typically good for Republicans, I don’t know how this is a shocking/hackish take.

I am mildly inclined to agree with you, as R's have overperformed the GE in the sleepy GA runoffs in recent history and of course they underperformed in 2021 when it was all on the line, but I think there are strong arguments either way.  Could also be that Dems have just gotten their Southern runoff game together over the past 5-10 years. Look at 2019 in Louisiana, for example.

[Alben Barkley]

This will certainly decrease turnout in the GA runoff, which makes Walker’s victory more likely IMO.

Did we forget who the high propensity voters are now?

Did you learn nothing from this election?

[zitronoise]

Is there an actual age limit for SCOTUS nominees?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Doomers in 2018: "Here's why Democrats winning the Senate means they're destined for failure in 2 years..."

Doomers in 2020: "Here's why Democrats keeping the Senate means they're destined for failure in 2 years..."

Doomers in 2022: "Here's why Democrats keeping the Senate means they're destined for failure in 2 years..."

[Tekken_Guy]

Decreased turnout is typically good for Republicans because Republicans are more likely to turn out in “unspecial” conditions, I don’t know how this is a shocking/hackish take.

Congresswoman Sarah Palin and incumbent congressman Marc Molinaro agree.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JimSwiftDC/status/1591599488518742017

[TheReckoning]

This will certainly decrease turnout in the GA runoff, which makes Walker’s victory more likely IMO.

Did we forget who the high propensity voters are now?

Did you learn nothing from this election?

High propensity when stakes are high, sure. Not when stakes are low, though.

I’m not saying that Warnock won’t win the runoff-he probably will- but he will probably win it by a lower margin than what he would have won it by had the Senate been up for grabs.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/CortezMasto/status/1591616624041549825?s=20&t=Tim-W0_Mo9...

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

NV: Laxalt +6 (FLIP, Likely R)

Do you guys think this will be the final margin???

Someone needs to make an ElectionsGuy/MTTreasurer Thread Of Overconfident Predictions

They both appear to have disappeared. Anyone want to check on them?

MT Treasurer made a really long post a few nights back gracefully accepting defeat.

I doubt ElectionsGuy will ever return.

I respect MT Treasurer (I don't respect ElectionsGuy at all) but I hope he takes this as a lesson in the future. He was so rude to everyone for supposedly missing all the obvious signs of the red wave, and his prediction ended up being one of the worst ones on the website. It was worse than a lot of the red avatars' 2020 predictions, actually. He was off on some of these races by well over 10 points. I'm not trying to kick him while he's down, because my predictions are always terrible too, but he was so rude over the past 2 years and I hope this humbles him.

I think I lost what remaining respect I had for him before the election, when he was posting about how he was putting annoying hacks like wbrocks on hard ignore and telling everyone that they should too, because they wouldn't be missing anything of substance. Talking about who you have on ignore is one of the most annoying Atlas behaviors, and he was doing it because he couldn't stand wbrocks' ultimately correct analysis.

I do like that he had the decency to make a respectable concession, so that's something in his favor. I'll probably stop beating the IndyRep-is-wrong horse now, but my god does it deserve to be beaten after the last 2 years.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Should Warnock win. In addition to the economic landscape, Factoring in that the Senate is basically rigged in favor of the GOP would make this arguably the most impressive Senate hold ever, right? And they will likely gain a seat!!!!

We'd be talking 60 seats if the Senate bias was reversed in Dems favor.

[emailking]

Holding the Senate while the President is deeply unpopular and inflation is very high is a truly incredible result and it is amazing what Democrats have managed to do while facing such an uphill battle. It's important not to forget this, even if Republicans ultimately win the House, this was an incredible performance by Democrats and there is much reason to celebrate, we can lament the missed opportunities later.

Re: the House, the fact that their biggest possible majority is 9, and more likely ~3, is also a big accomplishment for the Dems given the totality of circumstances.

[Atlas Force]

Is there an actual age limit for SCOTUS nominees?

No

[Alben Barkley]

NV: Laxalt +6 (FLIP, Likely R)

Do you guys think this will be the final margin???

Someone needs to make an ElectionsGuy/MTTreasurer Thread Of Overconfident Predictions

They both appear to have disappeared. Anyone want to check on them?

MtTreasurer actually had a very humble, reflective, and magnanimous post about all this from election night.  I have a lot more respect for him now then I did going into Election Day.

Yes, I really like MtTreasurer/IndyRep. He means well and I found many of his posts thoughtful.

I didn’t see that post. I thought he just disappeared. Doubt it makes up for months — no, years — of being an insufferably smug douchebag though. The outright bullying he often did of anyone who disagreed with his predictions and his habit of being incredibly caustic and condescending about any ideas that ran contrary to his own makes me doubt he “meant well.” Of course, I am no saint either. I hope he truly has developed some humility and self-awareness as a result of this. Guess we’ll see if/when he ever comes back.

[Ferguson97]

This will certainly decrease turnout in the GA runoff, which makes Walker’s victory more likely IMO.

Did we forget who the high propensity voters are now?

Did you learn nothing from this election?

High propensity when stakes are high, sure. Not when stakes are low, though.

I’m not saying that Warnock won’t win the runoff-he probably will- but he will probably win it by a lower margin than what he would have won it by had the Senate been up for grabs.

This is a useless prediction because we can't possibly know if that's true or not.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1591620298020835333

[Skill and Chance]

2 more years of judges.

8 Vacancies on the circuit courts that will all be filled now in the next two years,  making the overall distribution 91R-88D,  and that's with R judges super-packed into the 5th and 8th circuits.   

Should Sotomayor be encouraged to retire in 2024?

She should retire in 2023

In theory she could wait to retire until the lame duck session after the 2024 election results are known under the new Barrett Rule^TM for confirmations, but if Warnock loses and it's still 50/50 control, IDK if Manchin would go for that (he claimed he voted against Barrett because of the timing).   

[Ferguson97]

Is there an actual age limit for SCOTUS nominees?

Nope. You don't have to be an American citizen or even have a law degree.

It would be 100% legal for Biden to nominate a Nigerian toddler to the SCOTUS.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Sadly, I can only recommend this once.

[Lief 🗽]

This beautiful ad eviscerating Laxalt made the difference:

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Holding the Senate while the President is deeply unpopular and inflation is very high is a truly incredible result and it is amazing what Democrats have managed to do while facing such an uphill battle. It's important not to forget this, even if Republicans ultimately win the House, this was an incredible performance by Democrats and there is much reason to celebrate, we can lament the missed opportunities later.

Re: the House, the fact that their biggest possible majority is 9, and more likely ~3, is also a big accomplishment for the Dems given the totality of circumstances.

It's why, outside of CA-41, I'm not disappointed or worried at all about how the House ends up now.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Well with that all said and done, I guess now's as good a time as any to say that I voted for John Fetterman.

While I would have liked the Republicans to have taken control of the Senate, I just couldn't in good faith vote for a fellow healthcare professional who willfully pushed fringe and non-scientific treatments.  It goes against every ethical responsibility we have as doctors and it gives false hope to people who want to believe that these treatments actually offer real healthcare benefits. 

Also: congratulations, CCM.  Always for minority women in power.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Is there an actual age limit for SCOTUS nominees?

Nope. You don't have to be an American citizen or even have a law degree.

It would be 100% legal for Biden to nominate a Nigerian toddler to the SCOTUS.

Regency SCOTUS > Roberts court

[Skill and Chance]

Doomers in 2018: "Here's why Democrats winning the Senate means they're destined for failure in 2 years..."

Doomers in 2020: "Here's why Democrats keeping the Senate means they're destined for failure in 2 years..."

Doomers in 2022: "Here's why Democrats keeping the Senate means they're destined for failure in 2 years..."

This is a legit amazing Dem performance.