Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

Ma'am, you're very close to being sent to Atlas horny jail. This is your last warning before being issued a TMI citation.

I'm open to hearing more about her appreciation for funny west-coast dudes.

Anyway, here is my current count based on calls (from any outlet) and concessions:

R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Remaining lean R seats: 7
1. NY-22
2. CO-03
3. AZ-06
4. CA-03
5. CA-22
6. CA-27
7. CA-45

Remaining lean D seats: 17
1. ME-02
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. AK-AL
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41
16. CA-47
17. CA-49

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is there anyone in the Republican caucus who seems more likely to switch to the Dems than Manchin seemed likely to switch to the GOP in 2021?

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/adampwillis/status/1591149842755366912

Rip to a 🦜. Now that I think of it, I'm glad he lost so people don't think my forum username is inspired by U.S. Rep. Neil Parrott (R-MD)

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

How many days till the slaughter?

The part he didn't tell us what this it was his own reputation that would get slaughtered.

What reputation?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/adampwillis/status/1591149842755366912

Rip to a 🦜. Now that I think of it, I'm glad he lost so people don't think my forum username is inspired by U.S. Rep. Neil Parrott (R-MD)

Brenna Bird still won though. Mixed election results for birds.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is there anyone in the Republican caucus who seems more likely to switch to the Dems than Manchin seemed likely to switch to the GOP in 2021?

I can’t think of any. Fitzpatrick is probably the most moderate R left, and he didn’t even vote for impeachment. And I can’t imagine any of the newly elected Rs would flip - if they were inclined to, why wouldn’t they have done so before?

[It’s so Joever]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

AZ-SEN was prematurely called in 2020.
CO-03 was prematurely called (and ended up being wrong) this year.

Races can be prematurely called in ways that are favorable to Democrats too. People find you completely insufferable because you have very clear double standards in your reasoning.

AZ-Sen was not prematurely called in 2020. Kelly won. The call stood.

[DaleCooper]

So if there are 50,000 ballots to be counted in Clark County, and this does NOT include the 10k ballots waiting to be cured or the 5,555 provisionals, then I think you can pretty much ax the Lax. That doesn't even count Washoe (which CCM is winning by a lot) or Carson City (which she's also winning), which will at bare minimum match the remaining few thousand at best that Laxalt will gain from whatever's left in the red counties.

[TheReckoning]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

[Ferguson97]

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

Ma'am, you're very close to being sent to Atlas horny jail. This is your last warning before being issued a TMI citation.

I'm open to hearing more about her appreciation for funny west-coast dudes.

Anyway, here is my current count based on calls (from any outlet) and concessions:

R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Remaining lean R seats: 7
1. NY-22
2. CO-03
3. AZ-06
4. CA-03
5. CA-22
6. CA-27
7. CA-45

Remaining lean D seats: 17
1. ME-02
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. AK-AL
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41
16. CA-47
17. CA-49

Out of your lean R seats, what do you think are the most likely upsets for the Dems?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

Extreme gun-shyness.

[Atlas Force]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

How many days till the slaughter?

The part he didn't tell us what this it was his own reputation that would get slaughtered.

OUCH

[It’s so Joever]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

Probably just trauma from the “wrong” 2020 call, even though the call itself actually was correct. It’s pretty near impossible to see a path for Masters at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Apparently the basis for the Oregonian’s call was that Chavez declared victory   No concession, just Chavez trying to preemptively declare victory.  She may end up winning.  She might also end up losing.  Either way, not a good look for the Oregonian.

As with Garcia, this seems to be intended to lay the groundwork for disputing the legitimacy of a possible loss given how Democratic most of what’s left is expected to be

[GeorgiaModerate]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

AZ-SEN was prematurely called in 2020.
CO-03 was prematurely called (and ended up being wrong) this year.

Races can be prematurely called in ways that are favorable to Democrats too. People find you completely insufferable because you have very clear double standards in your reasoning.

AZ-Sen was not prematurely called in 2020. Kelly won. The call stood.

Incorrect and premature are not the same thing.  Fox's early call for Biden on election night was premature.  They got lucky they didn't have to rescind it.  The (much later) calls by other media outlets were not premature.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/adampwillis/status/1591149842755366912

Rip to a 🦜. Now that I think of it, I'm glad he lost so people don't think my forum username is inspired by U.S. Rep. Neil Parrott (R-MD)

Brenna Bird still won though. Mixed election results for birds.

Finchem camp in shambles.   

[America Needs R'hllor]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

The instinct to look at any election, let alone this particular cycle, and say “our team won, here’s an itemised list as to why that’s bad” is a part of hard-left discourse that I will just never understand.

Jacobin aren't part of the team tbh

[DaleCooper]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

Every race that is called (especially in the Senate) will decrease ratings at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

They haven’t reached the “acceptance” stage of grief yet. The Enemy of the People were really looking forward to Kelly losing and his triumphant and decisive victory has hit them hard.

[AZdude]

It's kind of shocking that the R in the AG race isn't performing worse? I mean I know he's not on Finchem levels, but the guy is like 30 years old isn't he? The fact that he's thisclose to becoming a state Attorney General with so little experience is pretty frightening.

Hamadeh is good looking and a veteran (which he never lets you forget).  That's pretty much it.  Although it is nice I suppose that people aren't holding his ethnicity and possibly religion (I'm not sure if he's a Muslim or not) against him.

[Devils30]

Is there anyone in the Republican caucus who seems more likely to switch to the Dems than Manchin seemed likely to switch to the GOP in 2021?

I can’t think of any. Fitzpatrick is probably the most moderate R left, and he didn’t even vote for impeachment. And I can’t imagine any of the newly elected Rs would flip - if they were inclined to, why wouldn’t they have done so before?

Fitzpatrick would definitely be the most likely. He voted with the Dems on guns and almost all of the GOP got wiped out of the legislature in the Philly burbs. The scrutiny MAGA would give him on every single vote might not be worth remaining in the GOP.

[Hope For A New Era]

D path to 218 if OR-5 goes R

WA-3, CA-41, CA-22, CA-27, AZ-1 (or 6)


Realistic ceiling is 220 if they can hold OR-5, get AZ-1 and 6.

Miraculous ceiling is 222, if they can get CA-03 and hold NY-22.

[MillennialModerate]

I’d change some of those categories and seats….


R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Not called but clearly going R • 4
1. NY 22
2. CO-03
3. CA-27
4. AZ-06


Remaining lean R seats: 3
1. CA-03
2. CA-22
3. CA-45



Not called but clearly going D:
1. AK-AL
2. ME-02




Remaining lean D seats or at least D led 15
1. CA-47
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. CA-49
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41



NBC is right on the money. 220-215 is where it’s going to end up.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1591132421541351424?s=20&t=4tNpemTjAtF...

     I hope Walker picks up his phone right now and dials up RDS for some campaign stops.

It almost feels like Trump wants to take the party down with him. Go ahead, Donny!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’d change some of those categories and seats….


R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Not called but clearly going R • 4
1. NY 22
2. CO-03
3. CA-27
4. AZ-06


Remaining lean R seats: 3
1. CA-03
2. CA-22
3. CA-45



Not called but clearly going D:
1. AK-AL
2. ME-02




Remaining lean D seats: 15
1. CA-47
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. CA-49
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41



NBC is right on the money. 220-215 is where it’s going to end up.

212 + 4 + 3 = 219