Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm feeling good about AZ-01

I would urge caution, especially cause AZ-01 is entirely nested in Maricopa County; it's entirely possible the final dumps could pad Rs or Ds more than we expect. Def realistic.

In AZ-06, Ciscomani is slightly underrunning Trump in the 2 rural counties in, but Engle needs to get a larger margin out of Pima. Again, we don't know how the remaining ballots skew.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah if Lake wants to win, she HAS to outperform Biden in either Pima and/or Maricopa, because she seems to be underperforming everywhere else.

You mean Trump?

Yes sorry

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I'm feeling good about AZ-01

I would urge caution, especially cause AZ-01 is entirely nested in Maricopa County; it's entirely possible the final dumps could pad Rs or Ds more than we expect. Def realistic.

In AZ-06, Ciscomani is slightly underrunning Trump in the 2 rural counties in, but Engle needs to get a larger margin out of Pima. Again, we don't know how the remaining ballots skew.

How likely are Valadao and Garcia to lose at this point? What about CA-03? I wonder if some Republicans didn't show up in CA-03 because they got locked out of an assembly district there despite the region being Republican

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1590919547103870976

So contrary to the pundit class, voters do care about threats to democracy

"Democrats will lose for campaigning on abortion and 1/6" is probably going to go down as one of the absolute worst Atlas consensus predictions of all time, wow.

[Adam Griffin]

In addition to Florida. GOP also posted record Senate beatdowns in other Deep South states (AL, AR, LA, SC etc). Looks like there was a red wave in several Southern states (not just FL)

The more interesting thing is the divergence between AR Sen and AR Gov. Ties to Trump were a hinderance even in Arkansas, just another reason why DeSantis's stock is surging.

Wow: I just realized Chris Jones won Washington County.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Can someone confirm, it looks like the Nevada State Senate is lean D while the State Assembly is a tossup? Not dissimilar to the national situation.

So even if Lombardo wins the Governorship, which would be unfortunate, a Democratic Senate could protect our reforms during the time we held a trifecta?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Btw no one has really talked about this but Salinas seems to be on track to win OR-06, but by an underwhelming margin. She currently leads, and the bluest county (Washington) has the most votes outstanding, and Clackamas where's she's up by 11 the 2nd most.

I need slightly more in but if Clackamas gets to 80% and McLeod-Skinner still only leads by 2 there, she's cooked. There's a small chance she still has a chance given her underperformance in Clackamas almost seems a little too bad relative to the rest of the district so maybe some D favorable votes just haven't been counted there?

Also Chavez-DeRemer is overperforming big time in Marion by like 17%. Does that hold? We shall see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone confirm, it looks like the Nevada State Senate is lean D while the State Assembly is a tossup? Not dissimilar to the national situation.

So even if Lombardo wins the Governorship, which would be unfortunate, a Democratic Senate could protect our reforms during the time we held a trifecta?

All we need is one house, to (mostly) block any unilateral GOP agenda. That should be easy to get.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is the NV state senate so tiny? Borrow some members from the NH House!

[Alben Barkley]

If Hobbs, CCM, Warnock, and Sisolak win, it'll be the first time the party in power didn't lose a single governor or senator since the Anti-Jacksonians in 1830.

Now THAT is a deep cut!

Too bad things don't look great for Sisolak, because that's the kind of factoid I NEED in my life.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1590903800499294208

Let's gooooo

[2016]

Let the Democrats have the House and put the Country more down the tube. Ron DeSantis will be smiling in 2024.

Honestly it seems like no matter what, the incoming House majority will be dysfunctional. Anyone or two unhappy people in the majority caucus hold a lot of power.

If I am honest I am massivly impressed with Ron DeSantis. I think he will be the GOP Nominee bcuz he has the right message and the right style unlike Trump.

DeSantis could have easily taken the bait given how consistenly Trump attacked him over the last 48 Hours and fired back and he didn't. Crist tried the same playbook consistently tweeting almost every Hour during the Run Up to the Election and DeSantis ignored him altogether. That's Discipline folks. Stay on message which Trump never was able to do.

I am feeling cautiously optimistic that if DeSantis is the Nominee he has a very good change of winning especially if Dems pull off the upset and keep the House.

And please along with Christina Pushaw hire Alyssa Farah-Griffin as Comms Director and Mia Love for AA Outreach. I love these two Women on CNN

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Sisolak definitely lost, CCM probably did. Way fewer mail ins than expected

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sisolak definitely lost, CCM probably did. Way fewer mail ins than expected

What? Where you getting that?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Sisolak definitely lost, CCM probably did. Way fewer mail ins than expected

What? Where you getting that?

Nevada Independent

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1590923686755942400

CCM is going to win.

[soundchaser]

Sisolak definitely lost, CCM probably did. Way fewer mail ins than expected

Please stop. CCM will win by more than a point.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Can Biden win Colorado by 20 points in 2024?  Really seems like it's zooming left faster than I thought, based on these results.

[Utah Neolib]

Let the Democrats have the House and put the Country more down the tube. Ron DeSantis will be smiling in 2024.

Honestly it seems like no matter what, the incoming House majority will be dysfunctional. Anyone or two unhappy people in the majority caucus hold a lot of power.

If I am honest I am massivly impressed with Ron DeSantis. I think he will be the GOP Nominee bcuz he has the right message and the right style unlike Trump.

DeSantis could have easily taken the bait given how consistenly Trump attacked him over the last 48 Hours and fired back and he didn't. Crist tried the same playbook consistently tweeting almost every Hour during the Run Up to the Election and DeSantis ignored him altogether. That's Discipline folks. Stay on message which Trump never was able to do.

I am feeling cautiously optimistic that if DeSantis is the Nominee he has a very good change of winning especially if Dems pull off the upset and keep the House.

And please along with Christina Pushaw hire Alyssa Farah-Griffin as Comms Director and Mia Love for AA Outreach. I love these two Women on CNN

You want to hire someone who lost a Trump +15 district in an upset that has a 2% black population to lead African-American outreach?

[Alben Barkley]

Can I just say, as someone who remembers all too well the bloodbaths that were 2010 and 2014 and was bracing myself for a repeat of them, this is truly remarkable? Like no matter what the exact final results are, I can't stress enough how amazing these results are for Democrats. Something has clearly shifted. Whether it's Dobbs, Trump/GOP radicalization, polarization, college educated white shift causing "high propensity voters" to lean more Dem, young voters turning out more in midterms, greater political engagement in general, Biden genuinely inspiring more voters than Obama did thanks to getting quite a bit done recently, or some combination... SOMETHING caused this to be very, VERY different than what you'd expect based both on typical/recent midterms AND the economy.

"It's the economy, stupid" has never been shaken so badly as a fundamental rule of politics. And neither has the "CW" about a president's first midterm. Clearly we are just in a totally different ballgame with a totally different rulebook since 2016.

[Alben Barkley]

Sisolak definitely lost, CCM probably did. Way fewer mail ins than expected

What? Where you getting that?

He is literally a troll.

[Nerd]

So some math on Maricopa County returns:

twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1588565467412975616/photo/2

From Tuesday, there were 895k votes reported to Maricopa EV map.  Since then, there's been two updates and now 1.186m on the EV map.

twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590757064896565248?s=20&t=RpE9LwPgOKxN2o-uqzzCjg

Maricopa has 982k votes reported (902k by the time they had last updated the EV map)

elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:5add2721-c3e7-43ca-9e7b-9351cdd8dc88/ElectionSummaryReportRPT_11082022_11102022.pdf

This means that there are (1.186m - 902k) 284k votes on the map but not reported for which we know partisanship.  Between the 895k and 1.186m updates.  We had 94k Dem (32%) , 112k R (38%), and 86k Other (30%), or 292k total.  This is R+6.  We know that there was 400k remaining, which was 270k Eday drop-off and 130k before EDay/provisionals.  That means that at worst the 292k votes is 130k before Eday and 160k Eday drop-off, or 55%.  If you assume that the 130k before Eday are like the rest of the early vote (probably more R than this) at ~R+0-1.  Then, at worst these ballots are going to be R+11 registration.  That should mean R+0-5 because others and Rs vote more Dem than they should.  In other words, Lake would only net 15k from the EDay drop-offs and maybe another 10-30k from remaining EDay cures/box 3.  Pima could easily cancel this out.

Advantage Hobbs

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Sisolak definitely lost, CCM probably did. Way fewer mail ins than expected

What? Where you getting that?

He is literally a troll.

This is not a troll post - Dems just got bad news in Nevada.

[SevenEleven]

Can I just say, as someone who remembers all too well the bloodbaths that were 2010 and 2014 and was bracing myself for a repeat of them, this is truly remarkable? Like no matter what the exact final results are, I can't stress enough how amazing these results are for Democrats. Something has clearly shifted. Whether it's Dobbs, Trump/GOP radicalization, polarization, college educated white shift causing "high propensity voters" to lean more Dem, young voters turning out more in midterms, greater political engagement in general, Biden genuinely inspiring more voters than Obama did thanks to getting quite a bit done recently, or some combination... SOMETHING caused this to be very, VERY different than what you'd expect based both on typical/recent midterms AND the economy.

"It's the economy, stupid" has never been shaken so badly as a fundamental rule of politics. And neither has the "CW" about a president's first midterm. Clearly we are just in a totally different ballgame with a totally different rulebook since 2016.

Almost as if doing good things for the American public earns their support. Who could've seen this coming?

[soundchaser]

So some math on Maricopa County returns:

twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1588565467412975616/photo/2

From Tuesday, there were 895k votes reported to Maricopa EV map.  Since then, there's been two updates and now 1.186m on the EV map.

twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590757064896565248?s=20&t=RpE9LwPgOKxN2o-uqzzCjg

Maricopa has 982k votes reported (902k by the time they had last updated the EV map)

elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:5add2721-c3e7-43ca-9e7b-9351cdd8dc88/ElectionSummaryReportRPT_11082022_11102022.pdf

This means that there are (1.186m - 902k) 284k votes on the map but not reported for which we know partisanship.  Between the 895k and 1.186m updates.  We had 94k Dem (32%) , 112k R (38%), and 86k Other (30%), or 292k total.  This is R+6.  We know that there was 400k remaining, which was 270k Eday drop-off and 130k before EDay/provisionals.  That means that at worst the 292k votes is 130k before Eday and 160k Eday drop-off, or 55%.  If you assume that the 130k before Eday are like the rest of the early vote (probably more R than this) at ~R+0-1.  Then, at worst these ballots are going to be R+11 registration.  That should mean R+0-5 because others and Rs vote more Dem than they should.  In other words, Lake would only net 15k from the EDay drop-offs and maybe another 10-30k from remaining EDay cures/box 3.  Pima could easily cancel this out.

Advantage Hobbs

Hell of a first post! Welcome!