Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

It would have to be CA-22, OR-05, AZ-06 at this point. CO-03 is sadly going for Boebert. But I don't imagine those three falling all together.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Kelly's got this. Masto winning not only clinches the Senate but takes away Herschel Walker's only lifeline in the runoff.

[It’s so Joever]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

CO-3 was the upset...it upset those who thought Ds could control the house.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Some AZ Dems seem to be optimistic about AZ-01

[wbrocks67]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

This has been accounted for in determining what CCM needs and in many cases the Republicans are performing 10-20% worse than what was previously counted.

Not to mention, 6 red counties are done counting. Laxalt is underperforming Trump in 4 of them, and even in the 2 he is outperforming, it's only been by 2-3%, which... is not good enough when Trump lost by 2.4 statewide.

[Nyvin]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

Aren't the rurals mostly done except what arrives in the mail tomorrow?  The only ones that still have significant votes to count are Douglas and Carson City.

[wbrocks67]

CNN: ~540K left to count in AZ.

Lake needs to win 52-54% of them
Hobbs needs to win 47-49% of them

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN says Masters needs to win 58-60% of the remaining 540K votes to win. I don't see how this can't be called at this point.

Remember that most decision desks (not DDHQ) have a threshold of 99.5% probability to call a race. With so many ballots out, it seems quite reasonable to hold off. Is Masters likely to get what he needs? No, it’s very unlikely. But it’s probably not yet 99.5% unlikely.

[Alben Barkley]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

CO-3 was the upset...it upset those who thought Ds could control the house.

You just can't help yourself, can you?

[Hammy]

What's the rough probabilities on Kelly victory? The waiting is driving me crazy far more than anything and my brain needs a break but just can't seem to pull myself away

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Personally calling it for Kelly at this point.

[MikeIrvine]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1590871708516376576

Well, Kim Klacik never conceded...
Personally, I blame Bethesda for mass-scale voter fraud that has cost freedom-loving conservatives elections in the Old Line State! Bethesda Games! It's their fault!

Fun Fact: I bought the same exact leather jacket Todd Howard wore during the Fallout 4 and Starfield previews (except in black). It arrived on Monday. I became Rodd Howard and reset the timeline. You're welcome, America.

Good, good. Now all that is left to do is to grift! You've earned it, King!

So hear me out....Skyrim: Elections Edition?

[emailking]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, NBC Decision Desk is now R 220 ± 7 (was R 221 ± 7).

[Dani Rose]

What's the rough probabilities on Kelly victory? The waiting is driving me crazy far more than anything and my brain needs a break

It's already over. Masters is wildly underperforming in the late returns, even in red areas.

[wbrocks67]

CNN says Masters needs to win 58-60% of the remaining 540K votes to win. I don't see how this can't be called at this point.

Remember that most decision desks (not DDHQ) have a threshold of 99.5% probability to call a race. With so many ballots out, it seems quite reasonable to hold off. Is Masters likely to get what he needs? No, it’s very unlikely. But it’s probably not yet 99.5% unlikely.

True, and I imagine they don't want to call it until they are 100% certain for fear of blowback, especially given Lake's shenanigans

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the rough probabilities on Kelly victory? The waiting is driving me crazy far more than anything and my brain needs a break but just can't seem to pull myself away

Somewhere north of 90% at this point.

[Alben Barkley]

What's the rough probabilities on Kelly victory? The waiting is driving me crazy far more than anything and my brain needs a break but just can't seem to pull myself away

100%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

AZ-06 - All of the red areas are at least 85%+ reporting, while Pima portion is only 73% reporting, and the red areas have smaller # of votes and seem to be maxing out... with Pima still having 100K+ statewide left to count... this looks very interesting. She's only down 5k despite another red county batch a little bit ago.

Rough math here but she probably has to win the remaining Pima votes with at least 55% in order to win, assuming nothing crazy out of Cochise or Pinal happens. Right now she's slightly below 55% of the vote in the Pima portion.

Democrats keeping the house is looking more and more likely 👀👀

I guess the chances since we lost CO-3 have gone up from 2% to 3% so yes.

Who is “we?”  You’re a Republican concern troll

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Why the sudden last minute dooming for Cortez Masto?

[It’s so Joever]

The probability for Kelly is that I am willing to call it for Kelly. Take from that what you will.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

CO-3 was the upset...it upset those who thought Ds could control the house.

Do you plan on actually contributing anything to this thread?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the rough probabilities on Kelly victory? The waiting is driving me crazy far more than anything and my brain needs a break but just can't seem to pull myself away

Somewhere north of 90% at this point.

At least 90%.

[John Dule]

CNN: ~540K left to count in AZ.

Lake needs to win 52-54% of them
Hobbs needs to win 47-49% of them

The vast majority of which are in Maricopa.

[Ferguson97]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

It would have to be CA-22, OR-05, AZ-06 at this point. CO-03 is sadly going for Boebert. But I don't imagine those three falling all together.

WaPo says Dems are favored in CA-22 and OR-05.

So we would only need an upset in AZ-06 to get to 218, if their projections are accurate.

[Holmes]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Doesn't look like it, chief.

It does, Maricopas Batch dropped and as I predicted Lake stayed within 30K Votes of Hobbs. Tomorrows drop will be by all accounts more favorable to Lake!

Do you have inside knowledge or some sort of clairvoyance about how tomorrow's drop in Maricopa will shake out?

It will be more favorable to Lake.
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1590904874186985472

Ok, so instead of winning the next batch by 8-9%ish, she'll win it by 0-5%ish, whatever.