Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

[John Dule]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

I have it down as "more likely R than D," but it is not a done deal yet. It is also very close to being the tipping point district. If the Dems come through in the other NV, WA, and OR races, then the GOP likely needs to win OR-6, CA-22, and AZ-6. Any losses in these three districts should signal alarm bells.

[Nyvin]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Edit - and her district even chops off the Republican northeast part too...

[Crumpets]

New WA numbers (changes since my last post just a few minutes ago):

WA-3:
Perez (D) 52.0% (-0.4%)
Kent (R) 47.4% (+0.4%)

WA-8:
Schrier (D) 52.4% (-0.8%)
Larkin (R) 47.3% (+0.8%)

[Aurelius]

House Math




This is a “best case R” map made by fellow user scutosaurus, which I generally agree with. Democrats need to win 5 of the light red seats here for a majority. CO-03 is gone, so discount that.

I feel fairly good about Dems winning 2-3 of the light red CA seats. That leaves four competitive races in WA, OR, and AZ to decide things.


I don’t necessarily think Dems are favored but it’s absolutely doable.

Kirkmeyer?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Catherine Cortez-Masto will likely win NV-SEN but I think it will be below 1,000 Votes. Lot's of Legal Challenges, Recounts possible I think.

I'll take the over on that.  Way over.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

Pretty stellar, it looks like, considering Kelly is only down by two points in Navajo.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Definitely looks like Arizona has returned to pre-2020 voting patterns, in which case Masters is finished and Hobbs has a very good shot. Also bodes well for our California House seats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

Trump won Navajo 53-45

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Clackamas County is apparently having "issues" so we may not know for a while. I also think Chavez-DeRemer is slightly favored but it should narrow based on the votes left.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

House Math




This is a “best case R” map made by fellow user scutosaurus, which I generally agree with. Democrats need to win 5 of the light red seats here for a majority. CO-03 is gone, so discount that.

I feel fairly good about Dems winning 2-3 of the light red CA seats. That leaves four competitive races in WA, OR, and AZ to decide things.


I don’t necessarily think Dems are favored but it’s absolutely doable.

Kirkmeyer?

CO-08 is already blue on that map.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

Trump won Navajo 53-45

Oh so good lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Edit - and her district even chops off the Republican northeast part too...

42% of the Clackamas portion and a decent chunk of the Multnomah (Portland) portion of the district are still out.  Most of the votes are counted in Linn County as well IIRC and that’s the biggest Republican bastion in the district.

[Aurelius]

House Math




This is a “best case R” map made by fellow user scutosaurus, which I generally agree with. Democrats need to win 5 of the light red seats here for a majority. CO-03 is gone, so discount that.

I feel fairly good about Dems winning 2-3 of the light red CA seats. That leaves four competitive races in WA, OR, and AZ to decide things.


I don’t necessarily think Dems are favored but it’s absolutely doable.

Kirkmeyer?

CO-08 is already blue on that map.

My point is Kirkmeyer still has a shot, so it shouldn't be blue.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyone think that since 218-217 is really impossible to get anything passed in - that it’s better for Dems politically if the GOP wins the majority (at that number specifically I mean)

I've said this earlier in the thread: while I'd love to see the Democrats retain both houses, a D Senate and a bare R majority in the House is probably the best case for D prospects in 2024:

1. It allows D's to continue confirming Biden's appointments.

2. It removes any pressure on the D's to try and pass a very progressive agenda around Manchin & Sinema.

3. The R caucus will be an ungovernable clown show that regularly embarrasses itself, and can be blamed for failure to get anything done.

One advantage for the D's if they do hang on is they can keep the J6 committee going, but not having it is a minor loss.  At this point I think the committee has accomplished most of what it can do in terms of persuading the public; the DOJ will handle the criminal investigations.

Also, it means Republicans hoping for no downturn in Alito and Thomas’ health.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

Trump won Navajo 53-45

Oh so good lol

IIRC, more of the Navajo Nation is located in Apache County than in Navajo County, oddly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Definitely looks like Arizona has returned to pre-2020 voting patterns, in which case Masters is finished and Hobbs has a very good shot. Also bodes well for our California House seats.

My gubernatorial prediction is looking like it's overestimating Rs at this rate!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Edit - and her district even chops off the Republican northeast part too...

42% of the Clackamas portion and a decent chunk of the Multnomah (Portland) portion of the district are still out.  Most of the votes are counted in Linn County as well IIRC and that’s the biggest Republican bastion in the district.

Funny we could technically have an R representing a small chunk of Portland

[MaxQue]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Clackamas County is apparently having "issues" so we may not know for a while. I also think Chavez-DeRemer is slightly favored but it should narrow based on the votes left.

Didn't they also had issues in the primary?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

Trump won Navajo 53-45

Oh so good lol

IIRC, more of the Navajo Nation is located in Apache County than in Navajo County, oddly.

Navajo County is more polarized than the Deep South. I can only imagine how weak R margins must be on the southern parts of the county in the Senate race, lol.

[cg41386]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590862903598780416

Good or bad for Kelly and Hobbs?

Trump won Navajo 53-45

Oh so good lol

IIRC, more of the Navajo Nation is located in Apache County than in Navajo County, oddly.

Navajo County has the Hopi Reservation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Clackamas County is apparently having "issues" so we may not know for a while. I also think Chavez-DeRemer is slightly favored but it should narrow based on the votes left.

Didn't they also had issues in the primary?

NOVA Green has talked about how there is some local incompetence regarding vote counting there, iirc.

[Ferguson97]

My point is Kirkmeyer still has a shot, so it shouldn't be blue.

It's been called

[Dani Rose]

I would like to offer a modified version of my previous shirt idea to Arizona Republicans.

"At Least We Have Mohave."

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally I think Chavez-DeRemer is favored in OR-6. Hard to see how McLeod-Skinner wins this.

If that's the case then McLeod-Skinner did pretty terribly in Clackamas County,  only winning by 2 when it's Biden+11

Clackamas County is apparently having "issues" so we may not know for a while. I also think Chavez-DeRemer is slightly favored but it should narrow based on the votes left.

Didn't they also had issues in the primary?

Yes.

In a lot of the western states (CA, OR, WA, AZ, NV, UT, CO), counting the votes is very much a county by county thing with no real centralized system. Some of the counties seem way more efficient/organized than others, which is why some counties will finish so much faster than others. Also different counties count ballots in different orders in a place like CA so certain parts of the state may have a blue shift while others have a red shift.