Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[TheReckoning]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

I'm sad that you feel compelled to make decisions for women.

Like, I get being personally pro-life.  If you don't like abortion, don't do that/advocate for it in your personal life.  But why must everyone else adopt your position?  That's where choice comes into play.

Because I think it’s killing innocent human life. So yeah, I oppose what I consider to be the killing of innocent human life, and I want to limit it, in ways that include criminalization.

This is a really simple argument to understand.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We almost have as many pages as House seats Democrats will win!

And now we have enough pages that, if Ds win the same number of seats, they'd win a majority!
God Bless America!

[Inmate Trump]

Sorry to ask this again, but I’ve been busy all day and not able to check our usual sources.

Is NV and AZ still looking good?

What about Dem chances in the House?

And Kari Lake in AZ?

You’ve asked this like five times I feel and the answers have not changed.

I’ve been unable to check anything all night and all day except for a few times.

Sorry!

[jojoju1998]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

In the end, (speaking as someone who would have voted for some of these propositions - would depend on exact wording) the pro-life movement needs to get realistic. Either you appeal to the mushy middle that is not as "consistent" as you are, or the likes of Planned Parenthood get to run the table and run the show.
Americans have broadly nuanced opinions on abortion.

My mom has this opinion : Legal, but rare, and don't fund it. Leave it to private providers.

Is your mom a swing voter?

She voted for Trump in 2020.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/trevenclaw/status/1590460510188625920

[Pericles]

While I think the November 2021 results indicated Republicans would get a wave election, it is possible Republicans were never on track for a great election. A special election on the same day as those state elections had a decent result for Democrats, and the generic ballot polling was never that grim. It could have been just lagging and Republicans would have surged like they have in past midterms. However, maybe voters were always turned off by Kevin McCarthy's national party and treated them differently to state parties initially. It will probably be impossible to determine, but knowing how much Republicans were really leading before Dobbs is critical to determining if this was a 1/6 backlash election or just a Dobbs backlash election.

A lot of people didn't understand that a state-level election not only has distinct issues from a national one most often, but it also has different stakes. Things like the issues with the Loudoun school board mattered more in a distinctly-more-local atmosphere of a state-level election. And it hurt McAuliffe. And Youngkin and other Republicans ran an excellent campaign with few mistakes. Simply extrapolating that to the wider nation was probably always fraught.

Maybe but you do have to account for New Jersey Republicans also having a great election and I think they had some good results in other states too, but maybe McAuliffe and Phil Murphy were both weaker than generic Democrats.

[Spectator]

Unless I'm misunderstanding what Ralston is posting, it seems as though CCM stands to net gain at least 10k votes from Washoe alone, roughly assuming that the non-partisans are a wash and all the Republicans go to Laxalt and all the Dems go to her.

Confirms Washoe flips back blue by a few points in the Senate race at least.

[Minnesota Mike]

Unless I'm misunderstanding what Ralston is posting, it seems as though CCM stands to net gain at least 10k votes from Washoe alone, roughly assuming that the non-partisans are a wash and all the Republicans go to Laxalt and all the Dems go to her.

I deleted the post because after re-reading it I wasn't really sure what he was saying.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/trevenclaw/status/1590460510188625920

Reading that tweet really was a journey. 

"Aww, that sounds like--oh my.  Oh, uh.  Well, we all do it so..."

[wbrocks67]

Sorry to ask this again, but I’ve been busy all day and not able to check our usual sources.

Is NV and AZ still looking good?

What about Dem chances in the House?

And Kari Lake in AZ?

You’ve asked this like five times I feel and the answers have not changed.

I’ve been unable to check anything all night and all day except for a few times.

Sorry!

It's okay! Nothing has really changed. AZ looks good for Kelly, NV is a bit of a tossup but the amount of mail out looks pretty good for CCM.

House seems likely to be a small few seat GOP majority but there seems to be a possible pathway for us if everything goes correctly.

AZ-GOV is a tossup. Really depends on how that Maricopa vote shakes out.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

I'm sad that you feel compelled to make decisions for women.

Like, I get being personally pro-life.  If you don't like abortion, don't do that/advocate for it in your personal life.  But why must everyone else adopt your position?  That's where choice comes into play.

Because I think it’s killing innocent human life. So yeah, I oppose what I consider to be the killing of innocent human life, and I want to limit it, in ways that include criminalization.

This is a really simple argument to understand.

So, by that logic then, Herschel Walker is a murderer and you don't support him, right?  And you think he should be jailed?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

While I think the November 2021 results indicated Republicans would get a wave election, it is possible Republicans were never on track for a great election. A special election on the same day as those state elections had a decent result for Democrats, and the generic ballot polling was never that grim. It could have been just lagging and Republicans would have surged like they have in past midterms. However, maybe voters were always turned off by Kevin McCarthy's national party and treated them differently to state parties initially. It will probably be impossible to determine, but knowing how much Republicans were really leading before Dobbs is critical to determining if this was a 1/6 backlash election or just a Dobbs backlash election.

A lot of people didn't understand that a state-level election not only has distinct issues from a national one most often, but it also has different stakes. Things like the issues with the Loudoun school board mattered more in a distinctly-more-local atmosphere of a state-level election. And it hurt McAuliffe. And Youngkin and other Republicans ran an excellent campaign with few mistakes. Simply extrapolating that to the wider nation was probably always fraught.

Maybe but you do have to account for New Jersey Republicans also having a great election and I think they had some good results in other states too, but maybe McAuliffe and Phil Murphy were both weaker than generic Democrats.

NJ Rs did well because fundamentals for Rs in gubernatorial and state elections are ALWAYS stronger for them than in national elections.

[DaleCooper]

Unless I'm misunderstanding what Ralston is posting, it seems as though CCM stands to net gain at least 10k votes from Washoe alone, roughly assuming that the non-partisans are a wash and all the Republicans go to Laxalt and all the Dems go to her.

Confirms Washoe flips back blue by a few points in the Senate race at least.

If Washoe cancels out the red county gains still yet to post for Laxalt then she will need less from Clark County than I had originally thought. Good for her, but the bad news for CCM is that it's uncertain that there is as much remaining in Clark as originally thought. Jon Ralston is teasing a tossup coming down to hundreds of votes. Not sure if that's real or a desperate plea for attention (again, part of why I'm getting tired of him).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

In the end, (speaking as someone who would have voted for some of these propositions - would depend on exact wording) the pro-life movement needs to get realistic. Either you appeal to the mushy middle that is not as "consistent" as you are, or the likes of Planned Parenthood get to run the table and run the show.
Americans have broadly nuanced opinions on abortion.

My mom has this opinion : Legal, but rare, and don't fund it. Leave it to private providers.

Is your mom a swing voter?

She voted for Trump in 2020.

Huh.
Doesn't look too good for Rs then.
In the end, you don't want high-salience issues that cut against you. This is what Clintonian triangulation was all about.

[wbrocks67]

I'm kinda shocked Malinowski flamed out. That district has a lot of college whites. I guess the scandals caught up to him.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From the New York Times:

Senator Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka.  Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23.  

Why not just publish all the second and third rankings of the counted vote on election night?
I'm a big supporter of RCV in general, but I don't understand why they hold off communicating the results like this.

RCV isn't precinct summable; you can't run the instant runoffs until the ballots are moved to a central location and counted together.

You don't have to do the run-off based on incomplete results. Just publish the data for how the 2nd and 3rd place votes were distributed among each candidate's 1st place voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/trevenclaw/status/1590460510188625920

Trump would have inserted his daughter here.

(sorry, I just needed to do this)

No, no, he's got a point...

[TheReckoning]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

I'm sad that you feel compelled to make decisions for women.

Like, I get being personally pro-life.  If you don't like abortion, don't do that/advocate for it in your personal life.  But why must everyone else adopt your position?  That's where choice comes into play.

Because I think it’s killing innocent human life. So yeah, I oppose what I consider to be the killing of innocent human life, and I want to limit it, in ways that include criminalization.

This is a really simple argument to understand.

So, by that logic then, Herschel Walker is a murderer and you don't support him, right?  And you think he should be jailed?

There is no proof Walker paid for an abortion. And what he did was not illegal, so no, he should not be jailed.

Herschel Walker is an idiot but he might be better for the country than Warnock.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/MassJumbo/status/1590447027221311488

Yeah, NY-04 and NY-17 were rated Likely D by some and have already been called Republican.

[DaleCooper]

Unless I'm misunderstanding what Ralston is posting, it seems as though CCM stands to net gain at least 10k votes from Washoe alone, roughly assuming that the non-partisans are a wash and all the Republicans go to Laxalt and all the Dems go to her.

I deleted the post because after re-reading it I wasn't really sure what he was saying.

I didn't see your post. I've been following Ralston's cringe posts on the evil website Twitter for more information. He retweeted the partisan breakdown of the mysterious 58k Washoe mail-in votes. About 10k more Democrats than Republicans and many unaffiliated voters (who I think would lean D in these votes but I consider them pure tossup to see what the situation is without the wild card).

[Stockdale for Veep]

I'm never listening to C+C Music Factory again if she costs us #51.

[jojoju1998]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

I'm sad that you feel compelled to make decisions for women.

Like, I get being personally pro-life.  If you don't like abortion, don't do that/advocate for it in your personal life.  But why must everyone else adopt your position?  That's where choice comes into play.

Because I think it’s killing innocent human life. So yeah, I oppose what I consider to be the killing of innocent human life, and I want to limit it, in ways that include criminalization.

This is a really simple argument to understand.

So, by that logic then, Herschel Walker is a murderer and you don't support him, right?  And you think he should be jailed?

There is no proof Walker paid for an abortion. And what he did was not illegal, so no, he should not be jailed.

Herschel Walker is an idiot but he might be better for the country than Warnock.

If Roe wasn't repealed, California wouldn't have passed Prop 1.

Roe was the only thing blocking California from actively funding abortions through full term.

[wbrocks67]

My darkhorse race was CO-08 and I think Caraveo has it. She's up 2K votes (1.1%) with now 92% of the vote in. Never understood why Kirkmeyer was expected to be this insane strong candidate.

[DaleCooper]

Oh great! A horrible, mind-rotting abortion debate smack dab in the middle of a thread that's supposed to be for following election results. Thanks!

[Zache]

Really sad Americans see supporting the sanctity of life as a bad thing.

Yeah it's an absolute shame that more Americans don't support gun legislation that would greatly diminish the rising rates of suicides, gun violence, and mass shootings. I'm with ya brother.