Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Dani Rose]

Would y’all say Schrier is a pretty clear favorite to win re-election? She’s ahead by 6 with 53% of the vote in in her Biden + 7 district

Schrier winning is key if Dems want to have any shot at retaining control.

OR-05 and OR-06 are also important.

Yeah, Schrier seems fine I would think. Very curious about Perez though, it would seem, if the NYT remaining vote is correct, she has a shot at holding on?

If Perez wins, Dems are prolly favored to retake the House. Anyone know when Washington will finish counting?

In the past there is usually a big ballot dump around 4pm PST. But sometimes they've done a morning dump as well, and I can't find anything actually confirming there's one in the works at some set time so ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯.

Very irregular dumps. Should probably see a doctor about that.

[politics_king]

Dark Brandon already making some calls.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1590186537961914368

"Popeye's Chicken Sandwiches?! Tonight?! Make sure mine has extra pickles!" *Dark Brandon's eyes intensive to super red.*

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590390312450797570

Trifecta? They won a trifecta and can now fix the damn roads?!

BIG GRETCH absolutely killed it!

[Smash255]

SPM
>Ditches his own seat
>Pushes out his neighboring colleague
>Still loses
>The seat he abandoned goes blue anyway

What a cowardly worm. His defeat was the only D loss I cheered for today.

While Maloney can certainly be criticized, I'm still not a fan of the ditches his own seat comment, he ran in the district he lives in.   Yes, you don't technically have to live in the district you run in, but I don't think you can be critical of someone for running in the seat they live in

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590390312450797570

Did they actually get it? Last I saw they were 1 seat short in both. Same in PA House.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1590248100878503938

[choclatechip45]

Does anyone have a good explanation for exactly what happened in New York?
Like why does it appear to have been a sizable red wave across the state while both Pennsylvania and all of New England were significant blue waves?

NY Dems did not have a coordinated campaign this year.

Did Dems have a "coordinated campaign" across the rest of the country?

I know they did in AZ, PA, GA, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Delaware, Florida, and Colorado. NY had one in 2018 & 2020. They are always state based and help with the field operation. The money comes from the state party.

[Torie]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

That was true hours ago actually.

[wbrocks67]

CNN calls PA-07 for WILD! VINDICATION!!

[Skill and Chance]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

[win win]

so who is favored in Nevada?

[pantsaregood]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

If the bar for "it's possible" was 25% (implying <25% was "not possible"), a lot more people would have success with Russian Roulette.

[wbrocks67]

The AP has not called MI-10 yet.

[John Dule]

One thing I will continue to believe is that the sudden GOP momentum of the past three weeks was largely fabricated. There was no inciting incident to cause their gains in the polls. I think this was the result of pollsters and pundits putting their fingers on the scale, because they feared they were missing another 2016/2020 polling error. Ironically, this has caused them to look dumb in the opposite direction.

I was not super active on the predictions board, but I set my Senate map to 50/50 back in August and never changed it, and that looks like where we’re headed (albeit I may have switched GA and NV). So based on the fundamentals and polls for the vast majority of the cycle, these results would be extremely unsurprising. The only reason this looks like a shock is because of the last three weeks of polling.

[wbrocks67]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

2020 =/= 2022. This year has seen a lot of evidence of voters going back to their 2018-style habits.

[DaleCooper]

so who is favored in Nevada?

Looks like pure tossup to me, honestly, but I'm open to arguments either way.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Predictit is a zoo, as always

[win win]

the GOP momentum was a big Trafalgarian lie

[pantsaregood]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

2020 =/= 2022. This year has seen a lot of evidence of voters going back to their 2018-style habits.

How does it feel to possibly be the single most vindicated Democratic hack on Atlas?

[Oryxslayer]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

Or CA matches polling (which is something to actually point towards now) which means things get more dem like in 2018-  mainly cause there was an actual E-Day unlike 2020 so GOP are  less  represented in mail. We don't really know. Same with the later mail in AZ and NV- but the latter two are look decent.

[GP270watch]

Some truly awful Republicans won last night

Kris Kobach, yuck. Expect lots of frivolous lawsuits about anything and everything.

[Atlas Force]

Doug Mastriacope

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1590394982913183744

[politics_king]

Just got up. Where do things stand?

Wisconsin: Barnes under performed Evers by ALOT, giving Johnson the win
Georgia: runoff…
Nevada: Laxalt favored, Same with GOP Governor canidate
Arizona: Kelly favored; Hobbs likely loses
House: 90% GOP but if there are some CA surprises there’s a Hail Mary chance.

Trump: crying like a little bitch

Are you aware you revise your very absolute and authoritative takes without stopping to acknowledge you jumped the gun on being so confident?

Their a troll. I always read the post first then see the username and everytime it's their's, I just roll my eyes. Imagine having to have an in-person conversation with them. Must feel like pulling your own teeth.

[Splash]

In Michigan, Whitmer is leading 54-44 with a significant amount of blue areas, including AVs from East Lansing and Ann Arbor, left to report. I think a 56-42 end result is not out of the question. She will definitely exceed her 2018 margin of victory.

It looks like the Democrats will have a 20-18 majority in the State Senate and a 56-54 majority in the State House. It's kind of crazy to think that the Republicans had a super-majority of 27-11 in the State Senate as recently as 2018.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Very funny that Doug lost by so much that he can't even claim fraud