Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[UncleSam]

CNN: 400,000 left to count in Maricopa

Early vote
Vote by mail
Election Day….

Which is it?

Who does it favor

One would assume it favors Rs slightly, the way those same ballots did in 2020. Probably 60-40 or something. Likely will save Lake, very unlikely to save Masters.

[Gass3268]

CNN: 400,000 left to count in Maricopa

This is 124,000 less votes than the NYT is currently estimating.

[SCNCmod]

CCM probably going to lose:

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590387437934907392

dOnT sAY that. It’s against the rules or something

Using a mail in ballot in any capacity... prob at least means that very few of those Republicans are Trump/Laxalt type Republicans... so even R mail in ballots .. could be more moderate R's .. just a thought

[Holmes]

CNN: 400,000 left to count in Maricopa

Early vote
Vote by mail
Election Day….

Which is it?

Who does it favor

One would assume it favors Rs slightly, the way those same ballots did in 2020. Probably 60-40 or something. Likely will save Lake, very unlikely to save Masters.

But those ballots favored Dems in 2018, so who tf knows?

[xavier110]

CNN: 400,000 left to count in Maricopa

Early vote
Vote by mail
Election Day….

Which is it?

Who does it favor

One would assume it favors Rs slightly, the way those same ballots did in 2020. Probably 60-40 or something. Likely will save Lake, very unlikely to save Masters.

The early mail vote this year was MUCH bluer than 2020. So I don’t know if that rubs off and makes lates more D-leaning than 2020…or less? Very curious. But yeah, I don’t know how Masters climbs a 5-point gap at the moment.

Given everything else we are seeing nation wide, a Masters win would be quite anomalous.

[President Johnson]

Dark Brandon already making some calls.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1590186537961914368

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1590296137994743808?s=20&t=vsNw-cDz...

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1590363901094670336
Garcia declares victory. Seems premature but he seems to be in a okish position.

     I remember a lot of talk about how rain would depress ED turnout in CA. What people forget is that prior to the drought, seasonal rains were very common here. Anyone raised here older than ~25 has memories of downpours in November.

To me this underscores just how bad the drought has been. It’s currently the rainy season along the entire West Coast, yesterday’s rain should’ve been business as usual.

Thankfully Steel hasn’t followed suit, although her lead is noticeably smaller with slightly more of the vote in.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jfchen/status/1590117461114114049

[riceowl]

According to Fox there was only an election in Florida yesterday, not sure what all y'all are talking about

[SCNCmod]

Does anyone know how many total ballots (any type ballot) are still left to count in the Maloney district?

[Agafin]

So according to CNN, republicans currently lead the popular vote by almost 7 points. It will probably come down but is it possible that in the end polls still underestimated them? I can easily see the end result being something like 50-48 R/D which means that the expected 220-215 house would be a rather proportional result.

Broadly speaking, the four most populous states in the union (CA, TX, NY and FL) which have about a third of the total population are helping shore up the GOP numbers. In the other two thirds of the country, we either have a neutral environment or even a semi blue wave but in those four states, results are either meh (CA and TX) or catastrophic (NY and FL) for democrats.

[SevenEleven]

The other thing about the Fetterman win is that he is the first Democrat to win that Senate seat since 1962. It's hard to find if Pennsylvania has ever had two Democratic Senators.

Arlen Specter briefly switched to Democrat before Pat Toomey won the seat.

[wbrocks67]

CNN: 400,000 left to count in Maricopa

Early vote
Vote by mail
Election Day….

Which is it?

Who does it favor

One would assume it favors Rs slightly, the way those same ballots did in 2020. Probably 60-40 or something. Likely will save Lake, very unlikely to save Masters.

The early mail vote this year was MUCH bluer than 2020. So I don’t know if that rubs off and makes lates more D-leaning than 2020…or less? Very curious. But yeah, I don’t know how Masters climbs a 5-point gap at the moment.

Given everything else we are seeing nation wide, a Masters win would be quite anomalous.

Yeah, earlier she said something like ~300K were ballots dropped off yesterday, and ~100K were mail-ins from Friday. So given that at least that 100K is likely to skew heavily Kelly like the initial batch, it may be able to offset if the 300K is a bit more GOP leaning. But with that being said, don't really see how Masters pulls it out.

It looks like there is still a good chunk out of Pima? That could possibly be Hobbs saving grace, but not sure.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

[wbrocks67]

So according to CNN, republicans currently lead the popular vote by almost 7 points. It will probably come down but is it possible that in the end polls still underestimated them? I can easily see the end result being something like 50-48 R/D which means that the expected 220-215 house would be a rather proportional result.

Broadly speaking, the four most populous states in the union (CA, TX, NY and FL) which have about a third of the total population are helping shore up the GOP numbers. In the other two thirds of the country, we either have a neutral environment or even a semi blue wave but in those four states, results are either meh (CA and TX) or catastrophic (NY and FL) for democrats.

CA is a wildcard, but if the ballots skew Dem like most historical precedence, should be fine for Dems generally. TX is a bit of a wash, Cueller/Gonzalez really outperformed, and I don't think anyone saw that coming.

[oldtimer]

CNN: 400,000 left to count in Maricopa

Early vote
Vote by mail
Election Day….

Which is it?

Who does it favor

One would assume it favors Rs slightly, the way those same ballots did in 2020. Probably 60-40 or something. Likely will save Lake, very unlikely to save Masters.

The early mail vote this year was MUCH bluer than 2020. So I don’t know if that rubs off and makes lates more D-leaning than 2020…or less? Very curious. But yeah, I don’t know how Masters climbs a 5-point gap at the moment.

Given everything else we are seeing nation wide, a Masters win would be quite anomalous.

Given Nevada and Arizona are now very similar, if Laxalt loses so does Mastriano.

[Logical]

SPM
>Ditches his own seat
>Pushes out his neighboring colleague
>Still loses
>The seat he abandoned goes blue anyway

What a cowardly worm. His defeat was the only D loss I cheered for today.

[Holmes]

Sorry but everyone saying "these people are clearly favored" need to shut up. They don't know jack. There's a lot of votes outstanding in these states, some of these races can go either way.

[Splash]

How likely is it that Golden ends up above 50% before redistribution? It looks like he is just about there...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Would y’all say Schrier is a pretty clear favorite to win re-election? She’s ahead by 6 with 53% of the vote in in her Biden + 7 district

Schrier winning is key if Dems want to have any shot at retaining control.

OR-05 and OR-06 are also important.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

That’s 10k more for R’s then Dems?…

Enough for Lake to get over the line but not Masters

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1590388560661975040

     They got his party wrong here though. This is a Republican pickup. CNalysis had this race handicapped as Solid D.

[wbrocks67]

Would y’all say Schrier is a pretty clear favorite to win re-election? She’s ahead by 6 with 53% of the vote in in her Biden + 7 district

Schrier winning is key if Dems want to have any shot at retaining control.

OR-05 and OR-06 are also important.

Yeah, Schrier seems fine I would think. Very curious about Perez though, it would seem, if the NYT remaining vote is correct, she has a shot at holding on?

[LimoLiberal]

18.5K mail ballots in Washoe suggests ~85K in Clark. If CCM's lead goes up to 25K with additional rural votes, she'd have to win ~63% of these ballots.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just got up. Where do things stand?