Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1590388560661975040

     They got his party wrong here though. This is a Republican pickup.

This might be the bluest district Rs win at Biden + 14.5. NY Dems really need to introspect

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

That’s 10k more for R’s then Dems?…

Enough for Lake to get over the line but not Masters

The initial early drop was basically even in party reg between Rs/ Ds and every D won with at least like 17-point margins…

If it’s R+5, Ds still prob win this dump…including Hobbs/Mayes

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

That’s 10k more for R’s then Dems?…

Enough for Lake to get over the line but not Masters

This assumes "other" is a net zero. Isn't that a pretty massive assumption given the national results last night?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Would y’all say Schrier is a pretty clear favorite to win re-election? She’s ahead by 6 with 53% of the vote in in her Biden + 7 district

Schrier winning is key if Dems want to have any shot at retaining control.

OR-05 and OR-06 are also important.

Yeah, Schrier seems fine I would think. Very curious about Perez though, it would seem, if the NYT remaining vote is correct, she has a shot at holding on?

If Perez wins, Dems are prolly favored to retake the House. Anyone know when Washington will finish counting?

[wbrocks67]

18.5K mail ballots in Washoe suggests ~85K in Clark. If CCM's lead goes up to 25K with additional rural votes, she'd have to win ~63% of these ballots.

Didn't someone post in here that Washoe has up to ~40K VBM left?

[Lief 🗽]

Dark Brandon already making some calls.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1590186537961914368

When will Brandon be giving the president’s traditional post midterm press conference? Usually they use it to give a mea culpa and promise to work with the other side, but he will rightfully be able to take a victory lap, especially after the disgusting treatment by the Enemy of the People the last 2 years.

[Horus]

Runoff ads already hitting my email... here we go!

[President Johnson]

Just got up. Where do things stand?

Kelly still not a done deal, RoJo prevailed by some 31k votes.

[MillennialModerate]

Just got up. Where do things stand?

Wisconsin: Barnes under performed Evers by ALOT, giving Johnson the win
Georgia: runoff…
Nevada: Laxalt favored, Same with GOP Governor canidate
Arizona: Kelly favored; Hobbs likely loses
House: 90% GOP but if there are some CA surprises there’s a Hail Mary chance.

Trump: crying like a little bitch

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just got up. Where do things stand?

Kelly still not a done deal, RoJo prevailed by some 31k votes.

Kelly seems favored, CCM seems slightly favored but it’s gonna be a very close call.

Rs are favored to win the House but it gonna be extremely narrow either way and Dems have a viable path.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590390643091968000?s=20&t=12CTnS_iS3...

[SCNCmod]

According to Fox there was only an election in Florida yesterday, not sure what all y'all are talking about

I switched over and watched a little fox late last night- many were still talking about the likely +20 balance of power they were going to have in the house.

One thing that Bill Hammer said several times (to I think Matha M) when he was going through the big board scenarios (I think in GA specifically)- Was something like: Its after midnight- I guess we can go through the Purple Scenario. Is this a reference that they weren't supposed to entertain possibility of Dems winning certain close races, prior to midnight?

Did anyone else catch these type comments. shortly after midnight?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1590387171273637888

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1590387796220735495

[pantsaregood]

Just got up. Where do things stand?

Wisconsin: Barnes under performed Evers by ALOT, giving Johnson the win
Georgia: runoff…
Nevada: Laxalt favored, Same with GOP Governor canidate
Arizona: Kelly favored; Hobbs likely loses
House: 90% GOP but if there are some CA surprises there’s a Hail Mary chance.

Trump: crying like a little bitch

Are you aware you revise your very absolute and authoritative takes without stopping to acknowledge you jumped the gun on being so confident?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

That’s 10k more for R’s then Dems?…

Enough for Lake to get over the line but not Masters

AZ indies are pretty D and even a few Rs defect.

[Ferguson97]

[Unelectable Bystander]

So if my understanding is correct, we’re on pace for something like 221-214 R house. This would be the 212 cook R seats (this includes AZ2/AZ6/OR5 which aren’t guarantees) plus Garcia, Valadao, Bacon, Kiggans, and about 4 New York flips.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590388831358156800

We know composition of ~ 200k of the 400k maricopa earlies left…

They do not look good for Rs.

That’s 10k more for R’s then Dems?…

Enough for Lake to get over the line but not Masters

AZ indies are pretty D and even a few Rs defect.

What do you think is the best case scenario for Masters in Arizona?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590390643091968000?s=20&t=12CTnS_iS3...

Rip, especially since Whitmer def carried the district by quite a bit. Rs probably feel a huge sigh of relief. Literally every race matters.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just got up. Where do things stand?

Wisconsin: Barnes under performed Evers by ALOT, giving Johnson the win
Georgia: runoff…
Nevada: Laxalt favored, Same with GOP Governor canidate
Arizona: Kelly favored; Hobbs likely loses
House: 90% GOP but if there are some CA surprises there’s a Hail Mary chance.

Trump: crying like a little bitch

This is the least doomer I've ever seen you. That good? Wow.

[Torie]

This is a cool tool.  For example, one can see that the interment of Boebert was premature. She has a 68% still of winning.  Why?  Because the votes still out in Pueblo are projected to be more Pub than than those already counted. Leave all this to the pros folks. We are basically clueless. Humility not hubris.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html

[MillennialModerate]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590390312450797570

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a cool tool.  For example, one can see that the interment of Boebert was premature. She has a 68% still of winning.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html

NYT has had issues with outstanding vote totals and it seems like that *may* be the case here, but not sure. Also seems like the needles were built to assume a more R leaning environment.

If it were me, I wouldn’t have called it, I would’ve waited for 1 more vote dump and/or confirmation that basically no ballots remain.

[Crumpets]

Would y’all say Schrier is a pretty clear favorite to win re-election? She’s ahead by 6 with 53% of the vote in in her Biden + 7 district

Schrier winning is key if Dems want to have any shot at retaining control.

OR-05 and OR-06 are also important.

Yeah, Schrier seems fine I would think. Very curious about Perez though, it would seem, if the NYT remaining vote is correct, she has a shot at holding on?

If Perez wins, Dems are prolly favored to retake the House. Anyone know when Washington will finish counting?

In the past there is usually a big ballot dump around 4pm PST. But sometimes they've done a morning dump as well, and I can't find anything actually confirming there's one in the works at some set time so ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯.