Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

I imagine there are a fair number of votes left to be counted in New York, right? It would be odd if Schumer only won by 13, though I suppose Hochul could've dragged him down somewhat, but I'd say that's something to consider when it comes to the state of the House races there.

Yes, the senate is currently at 88% and the gubernatorial at 93% per the NYT.

These are just estimates, too. The NYT is not very good at estimating what percentage of votes are left when they are mostly/entirely absentees, as they are in New York. It's probably more.

[Still Nervous]

The NYT still doesn't have PA-12 called, what gives? There can't be that much vote left in Westmoreland.

[oldtimer]

Time for some statistics

The Average Deviation of Democrat vote so far from the 2020 Presidential Election is:
-0.82%

You could simply plaster Biden's vote share from 2020 and you would be very accurate on average.

Worse states for Democrats:

SD:-10
FL: -7
AL: -6
MS:-6
NY:-5

Best states for Democrats:

AK:+9
ND:+6
HI:+6
ME:+5

Thought experiment, all Midterms for Incumbent party since 1994 compared to the President.

Clinton 92: 43
DEM 94 :45

Clinton 96: 49
DEM 98: 47

Bush 00: 49
REP 02: 50

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

Trump 16:46
REP 18 :45

Biden 20: 51
DEM 22: 50

Guess which stick out and why.

I wonder how much of a role leaving more seats uncontested plays, especially in more recent years.

I believe it doesn't matter.
When you have hundreds of results they tend to average out towards the President's vote share.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I imagine there are a fair number of votes left to be counted in New York, right? It would be odd if Schumer only won by 13, though I suppose Hochul could've dragged him down somewhat, but I'd say that's something to consider when it comes to the state of the House races there.

Yes, the senate is currently at 88% and the gubernatorial at 93% per the NYT.

These are just estimates, too. The NYT is not very good at estimating what percentage of votes are left when they are mostly/entirely absentees, as they are in New York. It's probably more.

If Dems get padded enough to flip NY-17, NY-19, NY-22, and maybe NY-04 I would argue they’d be favored to win a narrow house majority

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1590359880396832771?s=20&t=f2MteF6hDoqkl-UL...

That is huge. Congrats!

Interesting that KS reelects a D-gov while NV is probably not, even if CCM hangs on.

Laura Kelly dominated among white college educated voters.

The trend is therefore; College Educated goes Democrat, while non college educated of which Nevada is more full of is going Republican.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The NYT still doesn't have PA-12 called, what gives? There can't be that much vote left in Westmoreland.

Seems like NYT hasn’t called much since about 3am

[Baki]

Wisconsin updated - Johnsons lead down 32k-->27k votes.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/petersagal/status/1590356795725598721

[Ferguson97]

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

These are the obvious exceptions. 2006 and 2010 are obvious, but what happened in 2014?

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1590359880396832771?s=20&t=f2MteF6hDoqkl-UL...

That is huge. Congrats!

Interesting that KS reelects a D-gov while NV is probably not, even if CCM hangs on.

Laura Kelly dominated among white college educated voters.

The trend is therefore; College Educated goes Democrat, while non college educated of which Nevada is more full of is going Republican.

I love universal swing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The NYT still doesn't have PA-12 called, what gives? There can't be that much vote left in Westmoreland.

Seems like NYT hasn’t called much since about 3am

Lol someone from NYT must’ve been reading this cause they just called PA-12

[Sir Mohamed]

Wisconsin updated - Johnsons lead down 32k-->27k votes.

But Barnes is unlikely to come out on top still?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For those who don't have access, here's the NYT's breakdown of 14 marginal districts where the Democrats currently hold the lead:

IL-17 - Sorenson +3 (93% reporting) - V. Likely D
PA-17 - Deluzio +5 (92% reporting) - V. Likely D
CA-26 - Brownley +8 (46% reporting) - Likely D
PA-08 - Cartwright +2 (93% reporting) - Likely D
PA-07 - Wild +1.6 (95% reporting) - Likely D
CA-09 - Harder +13 (37% reporting) - Likely D
CT-05 - Hayes +0.51 (>95% reporting) - Likely D
OR-04 - Hoyle +8 (82% reporting) - Leaning D
ME-02 - Golden +5 (82% reporting) - Leaning D
NY-18 - Ryan +0.83 (>95% reporting) - Leaning D
NV-04 - Horsford +3 (76% reporting) - Leaning D
CA-49 - Levin +2 (54% reporting) - Leaning D
CA-47 - Porter +0.56 (55% reporting) - Leaning D
OR-06 - Salinas +2 (63% reporting) - Leaning D

[Baki]

GCB (81% in)

52.3R - 45.7D

by CNN

[Freshly-touched grass]

Is Mark Kelly a done deal or no?

[Still Nervous]

The NYT still doesn't have PA-12 called, what gives? There can't be that much vote left in Westmoreland.

Seems like NYT hasn’t called much since about 3am

Lol someone from NYT must’ve been reading this cause they just called PA-12

Hey NYT guy if you're reading this, give me a job

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1590359880396832771?s=20&t=f2MteF6hDoqkl-UL...

That is huge. Congrats!

Interesting that KS reelects a D-gov while NV is probably not, even if CCM hangs on.

Laura Kelly dominated among white college educated voters.

The trend is therefore; College Educated goes Democrat, while non college educated of which Nevada is more full of is going Republican.

Local factors play more in Governor races. For every Kansas there is a Vermont.

[Baki]

Is Mark Kelly a done deal or no?

No

[icc]

Wisconsin updated - Johnsons lead down 32k-->27k votes.

Was a drop from Rock County in which Barnes won 72%

[Ferguson97]

GCB (81% in)

52.3R - 45.7D

by CNN

That can’t be right. The House is uncalled but the GCB is R+6.5?

Was there like 300% turnout in Safe R districts?

[Nyvin]

Maloney concedes the race in NY-17

[Holmes]

GCB (81% in)

52.3R - 45.7D

by CNN

What? A 7 point Republican lead and they’ll probably barely have a majority?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Mark Kelly a done deal or no?

No, but he’s favored. Same with CCM

[Tintrlvr]

GCB (81% in)

52.3R - 45.7D

by CNN

What? A 7 point Republican lead and they’ll probably barely have a majority?

Tons of uncounted ballots from California, in particular. A very large portion of that 19% is California.

[Nyvin]

GCB (81% in)

52.3R - 45.7D

by CNN

That can’t be right. The House is uncalled but the GCB is R+6.5?

Was there like 300% turnout in Safe R districts?

24 seats in the country had no D though, with only 12 having no R.