Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[politicallefty]

NBC projects Laura Kelly wins reelection in Kansas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also Pinal dumped and finally flipped R in AZ

[Brittain33]

Best line I've seen yet, and from a Republican:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1590312197355626496

It’s also a bad strategy for choosing what polls to track, Sean.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/JoshSandersTV/status/1590355535920263168

[7,052,770]

What about OR-5? jhk has it above 50%

[ultraviolet]

Are speakers elected by plurality vote? If not then how does Pelosi stay speaker under any R house

[omar04]

Dems Path to a majority:

Win:

ME-02
CT-05
All 4 uncalled PA seats as per NYT
MD-06
CO-03 and CO-08
AZ-04
WA-08 and WA-10
OR-04 and OR-06
NM-02
All 3 Nevada districts
IL-17
AK-AL

2 of NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, or NY-22
And all the safe D Cali seats plus CA-09, CA-13, CA-47, CA-49, and at least 1 other CA seat

Def not imposible but it’s a lot of dominoes and rn I still think Rs are favored

Hochul is already being blamed for losing the House by under performing in NY.

Didn't Schumer also underperform? It's by far his worst result other than 1998. And just barely above that.

Yeah, but the gubernatorial race has slightly more votes cast and slightly larger effect on the rest of the ticket.  Senate: 5,541,999 Gubernatorial: 5,732,787

I would also argue that Hochul's personal unpopularity is worse for Democratic prospects than Schumer.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-new-york-us-senate.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-new-york-governor.html

[brucejoel99]

Are speakers elected by plurality vote?

By a majority of members voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1590359880396832771?s=20&t=f2MteF6hDoqkl-UL...

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshSandersTV/status/1590355535920263168

Uh aren’t there still a million votes left to count? How can 97% of precincts be in

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/JoshSandersTV/status/1590355535920263168

I just hope Hobbs doesn't end up like Kate Brown popularity wise if she does end up winning.

[oldtimer]

Time for some statistics

The Average Deviation of Democrat vote so far from the 2020 Presidential Election is:
-0.82%

You could simply plaster Biden's vote share from 2020 and you would be very accurate on average.

Worse states for Democrats:

SD:-10
FL: -7
AL: -6
MS:-6
NY:-5

Best states for Democrats:

AK:+9
ND:+6
HI:+6
ME:+5

Thought experiment, all Midterms for Incumbent party since 1994 compared to the President.

Clinton 92: 43
DEM 94 :45

Clinton 96: 49
DEM 98: 47

Bush 00: 49
REP 02: 50

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

Trump 16:46
REP 18 :45

Biden 20: 51
DEM 22: 50

Guess which stick out and why.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1590361862184607744

[Spectator]

Time for some statistics

The Average Deviation of Democrat vote so far from the 2020 Presidential Election is:
-0.82%

You could simply plaster Biden's vote share from 2020 and you would be very accurate on average.

Worse states for Democrats:

SD:-10
FL: -7
AL: -6
MS:-6
NY:-5

Best states for Democrats:

AK:+9
ND:+6
HI:+6
ME:+5

Thought experiment, all Midterms for Incumbent party since 1994 compared to the President.

Clinton 92: 43
DEM 94 :45

Clinton 96: 49
DEM 98: 47

Bush 00: 49
REP 02: 50

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

Trump 16:46
REP 18 :45

Biden 20: 51
DEM 22: 50

Guess which stick out and why.

Alaska will really stand out when RCV is done. Looks like Ivan Moore’s poll will be spot on. Peltola probably on track for a double digit win. Curious to see the map of that when it’s done.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1590359880396832771?s=20&t=f2MteF6hDoqkl-UL...

That is huge. Congrats!

Interesting that KS reelects a D-gov while NV is probably not, even if CCM hangs on.

[new_patomic]

This notably beats the streak Kansas had going since 1990 of electing a Governor from the opposite party of the President.

[omar04]

Time for some statistics

The Average Deviation of Democrat vote so far from the 2020 Presidential Election is:
-0.82%

You could simply plaster Biden's vote share from 2020 and you would be very accurate on average.

Worse states for Democrats:

SD:-10
FL: -7
AL: -6
MS:-6
NY:-5

Best states for Democrats:

AK:+9
ND:+6
HI:+6
ME:+5

Thought experiment, all Midterms for Incumbent party since 1994 compared to the President.

Clinton 92: 43
DEM 94 :45

Clinton 96: 49
DEM 98: 47

Bush 00: 49
REP 02: 50

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

Trump 16:46
REP 18 :45

Biden 20: 51
DEM 22: 50

Guess which stick out and why.

I wonder how much of a role leaving more seats uncontested plays, especially in more recent years.

[Xing]

I imagine there are a fair number of votes left to be counted in New York, right? It would be odd if Schumer only won by 13, though I suppose Hochul could've dragged him down somewhat, but I'd say that's something to consider when it comes to the state of the House races there.

[jamestroll]

Yea. I think Frisch has won... But still wont believe it until the results are certified.

The doors I knocked on could have made a difference!

[new_patomic]

Andy Levin would have won in Michigan 10th.

[angry screeching]

[oldtimer]

Time for some statistics

The Average Deviation of Democrat vote so far from the 2020 Presidential Election is:
-0.82%

You could simply plaster Biden's vote share from 2020 and you would be very accurate on average.

Worse states for Democrats:

SD:-10
FL: -7
AL: -6
MS:-6
NY:-5

Best states for Democrats:

AK:+9
ND:+6
HI:+6
ME:+5

Thought experiment, all Midterms for Incumbent party since 1994 compared to the President.

Clinton 92: 43
DEM 94 :45

Clinton 96: 49
DEM 98: 47

Bush 00: 49
REP 02: 50

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

Trump 16:46
REP 18 :45

Biden 20: 51
DEM 22: 50

Guess which stick out and why.

Alaska will really stand out when RCV is done. Looks like Ivan Moore’s poll will be spot on. Peltola probably on track for a double digit win. Curious to see the map of that when it’s done.

With the exception of Florida and New York (N.Y.C to be specific), the smaller the State Population the higher the chances of an upset relative to the previous Presidential Election.

[Mopsus]

In other mixed news:

Marijuana legalized in Maryland and Missouri

Rejected in Arkansas and North and South Dakota

Psychedelics legalized in Colorado

so like legit over the counter acid or shrooms is sold there now?

What about DMT. Talk to me about it. Slowly.

Psilocybin and pscilocin containing mushrooms legal for cultivation, possession, and use, but not for sale; mescaline, ibogaine, and dimethyltryptamine legal only for consumption under medical supervision at licensed facilities.

[omar04]

I imagine there are a fair number of votes left to be counted in New York, right? It would be odd if Schumer only won by 13, though I suppose Hochul could've dragged him down somewhat, but I'd say that's something to consider when it comes to the state of the House races there.

Yes, the senate is currently at 88% and the gubernatorial at 93% per the NYT.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/DanBoydNM/status/1590360940394184705?s=20&t=3ilQjoYM7WZ1...

Boom

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshSandersTV/status/1590355535920263168

Uh aren’t there still a million votes left to count? How can 97% of precincts be in

It's the percentage of precincts that have reported some votes, not necessarily all of them.