Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Nyvin]

Do we still think we can pull off NV and AZ?

Any idea how soon we’ll know?

Masters looks dead.   That race is Likely D.

NV is still up in the air, but Ralston thinks it's leaning D.

[Still Nervous]

Flipping the PA House is HUGE. The Senate will be pretty tight as well.

[Yoda]

Just woke up, thrilled to realize that last night was not a dream.

I know there were objectively some more impressive/important wins, but I think Fetterman winning makes me the most happy - after how nasty of a campaign Republicans ran, how smug they got the last few weeks, seeing Fetterman win is so satisfying.

I'm repeating myself here again but I don't care - f*** Oz for weaponizing Fetterman's stroke. God I'm happy to see that weird mfer slither back to NJ.

[cowboys5xsbs]

Democrats gained trifectas in Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota (pending), and Michigan

Republicans gained trifectas in.....nothing.

They got iowa

[MasterJedi]

In other mixed news:

Marijuana legalized in Maryland and Missouri

Rejected in Arkansas and North and South Dakota

Psychedelics legalized in Colorado

[Brittain33]

Democrats gained trifectas in Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota (pending), and Michigan

Republicans gained trifectas in.....nothing.

They got iowa

Didn’t they already have the Governor and both houses of the legislature? I’m certain they did. Winning other races doesn’t count.

[Holmes]

Democrats gained trifectas in Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota (pending), and Michigan

Republicans gained trifectas in.....nothing.

They got iowa

They already had it?

[Nyvin]

Democrats gained trifectas in Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota (pending), and Michigan

Republicans gained trifectas in.....nothing.

They got iowa

They had Iowa.

[Logical]

Turns out that Washoe has ~40k mail ins left. Add that to the ~100k mails in Clarke and stick a fork in Laxalt.
https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/1590286038668546052

[Still Nervous]

Democrats gained trifectas in Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota (pending), and Michigan

Republicans gained trifectas in.....nothing.

They got iowa

They already had it?

"I used to do drugs. I still do, but I used to too." - Mitch Hedberg

[Person Man]

Turns out that Washoe has ~40k mail ins left. Add that to the ~100k mails in Clarke and stick a fork in Laxalt.
https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/1590286038668546052

CCM wins the same way Mom always won at Monopoly. "You hide your 500s".

[jamestroll]

So while I still think the GOP has a very good chance of winning the house and senate this cycle.. and inclined to think that they do have the house and maybee the senate..


This does make me think back to 2018. In 2018, the day to day life of the United States was quite good. Great economy, no foreign entanglements, the worst was strange behavior by Trump.

Economic conditions did not exist for a Democratic wave. Yet it happened because Democrats ran out to express disdain to Trump and suburbanites voted for Democrats in congress to say F U to Trump.

Now, due to lack of conditions justifying a wave it did severely limit Democratic gains on the state level. Democrats lost OH, IA, GA, and FL GOV, and did not make substantial local gains. There just was not really that much disdain for the GOP in general. It was more anti Trump.

However, the four Democrats that lost in 2018 can be explained:

MO: McCaskill was unpopular. She got her approval rating and that is it.

FL: Nelson ran a campaign of saying he went outer space.

ND: Heitkamp, I think could have won, but she dug her own grave at the end and ND is hyper GOP.

IN: Donnelly was not controversial really, but anonymous.

And all four states had a strong liking for Trump.

But the old meme that midterms favor the GOP is obviously false now.

I argue Democrats over performed in 2018 versus conditions, and they way over performed last night even if they eventually lose the house and senate on final results.

If this was a second Trump midterm... the senate and governors would have been a disaster last night for the GOP.

[Spectator]

Turns out that Washoe has ~40k mail ins left. Add that to the ~100k mails in Clarke and stick a fork in Laxalt.
https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/1590286038668546052

I figured Washoe was way too anomalously red given what we’ve seen from demographically similar places in the country.

[Freshly-touched grass]

Just woke up. Quite a Republican midterm, right folks?

Wait, sorry, the current president is an unpopular Democrat and there's record-breaking inflation? What? How?

And the red wave is so devastatingly bad for Democrats that it's Wednesday morning and the House still hasn't been called, and will likely not be called for some time??

Clearly I'm high on copium. I'll take the doomer pill to even things out.

Uhhhhhhhhhh... Democrats are on track to lose 50 seats in 2024 and WV, MT, OH, NV, MI, MN, and PA are all safe R. Biden's on track to make 1980 look close. There will be an R trifecta for 12 years starting after 2024.

There we go.

[New England Fire Squad]

If Dems ends up losing the senate after all this and Lake wins, I'll be super disappointed. The size of the house loss matters much less.

NV is going R
AZ is a tossup
Georgia I still think favors R’s in a runoff

Lake is 100% winning. That’s the most definite result of the 4

Bruh you guys basically won why ypu always gotta doom

[new_patomic]

Has there been any indication of what the national popular vote/turnout is looking like?

It seems there's a total dearth of information on that versus 2018/2020.

[Devils30]

Dems in MN need to try a mid decade redraw, it can counter the 3 seats we are going to lose in NC. In April we will win the WI Supreme Court and try for a 4-4. Also with the DiFiore retirement, try to get the Hochulmander back.

[Sol]

Dems in MN need to try a mid decade redraw, it can counter the 3 seats we are going to lose in NC. In April we will win the WI Supreme Court and try for a 4-4. Also with the DiFiore retirement, try to get the Hochulmander back.

Almost certainly 4 ftr.

[Baki]

Do we still think we can pull off NV and AZ?

Any idea how soon we’ll know?

So I just watched Kornacki and this is what his screen-touching said:

Kelly in Arizona has a 108k lead and the only clear thing is that it will be close. The positive for Kelly is that at the same point in time, morning after ED, Biden had the same margin over Trump - 110k - which eventualy came down to 10k. However, with this being a lower turnout than 2020 it is possible that there may not be as much R votes to come to erase his advantage. The negative is ofcourse that you never know how many votes actually are outstanding and how they shape up.

That said - Hobs will likely lose beacuse her advantage is only cca 30k .


In Nevada, Clark and Washoe have reported all of the ED vote and what is left to report is late arriving mail and all the "early mail votes" dropped in on ED. None of that has been reported yet. We know (from Twitter) that there are at least 16k votes in Washoe to be counted. We still don't know the exact number of votes in Clark.
CCM is currently trailing by 23k votes.

Per Ralston, there could be as many as 100k votes to be reported from Clark alone and that is probably what CCM would need to win if the distribution of that mail vote is the same as the mail that has already been reported.
I should note that, if I understand correctly, the 100k figure is kind of a guess based on the turnout numbers in previous elections.


In short - in the senate races you'd rather be the Democrat, in the governors races you'd rather be the Republican.

[brucejoel99]

Lmaooooo:

https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1590345139213701120

[MillennialModerate]

If Dems ends up losing the senate after all this and Lake wins, I'll be super disappointed. The size of the house loss matters much less.

NV is going R
AZ is a tossup
Georgia I still think favors R’s in a runoff

Lake is 100% winning. That’s the most definite result of the 4

Bruh you guys basically won why ypu always gotta doom

We exceeded expectations … we did not win

Controlling both chambers is winning

[Zenobiyl]

I’m partly disappointed the GOP blew a golden opportunity of a year, but also relieved this chaotic campaign season is finally over.

[pantsaregood]

If Dems ends up losing the senate after all this and Lake wins, I'll be super disappointed. The size of the house loss matters much less.

NV is going R
AZ is a tossup
Georgia I still think favors R’s in a runoff

Lake is 100% winning. That’s the most definite result of the 4

Bruh you guys basically won why ypu always gotta doom

We exceeded expectations … we did not win

Controlling both chambers is winning

Goalpost status: moved

Somehow we win the house?

"We did not win. Having a filibuster proof majority is winning."

[Zinneke]

In other mixed news:

Marijuana legalized in Maryland and Missouri

Rejected in Arkansas and North and South Dakota

Psychedelics legalized in Colorado

so like legit over the counter acid or shrooms is sold there now?

What about DMT. Talk to me about it. Slowly.

[Still Nervous]

Lmaooooo:

https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1590345139213701120