Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[oldtimer]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

I also feel like something is wrong in our politics when it seems like peoples #1 goal is just to see the other side suffer, specifically individual people on the other side.

In 2020 for instance, I wanted to see the Republican Party as a whole suffer but not really individual Republican voters.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I probably should just do something else until the polls close, but I can't help myself.

I'm gonna take a break in a little bit to go try on pairs of jeans to see which ones still fit (help) and then throw on a couple episodes of Impractical Jokers while I do a bit of tidying up.

Mental breaks, people.  No matter who you're rooting for tonight. 

[EastwoodS]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

I’m enjoying this day. More and more coping

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

We should crowd-fund EastwoodS to get a mirror...

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

[Dani Rose]

So far, what I can say with reasonable certainty is that, if there's a wave environment, it's going to be extremely inconsistent. The idea that the Midwest may depolarize at the same time the Sun Belt swings back from us is just madness to me. Feels like a sudden whiplash back into 2008.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

All true.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I probably should just do something else until the polls close, but I can't help myself.

I'm gonna take a break in a little bit to go try on pairs of jeans to see which ones still fit (help) and then throw on a couple episodes of Impractical Jokers while I do a bit of tidying up.

Mental breaks, people.  No matter who you're rooting for tonight. 

I'm probably just gonna smoke and hope that takes the edge off for a couple of hours.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Just ordered some pizza to enjoy the upcoming buttblasting

The real question is whether it's merely a standard off-year asswhooping or if Trafalgar is right and WA-SEN and MI-GOV come down to the wire.

[Horus]

It's been clear for several weeks that the GOP is going to win both houses of Congress.

If one of Warnock/Fetterman/Barnes wins I'll consider today successful enough under the circumstances.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590091105839611906

Not saying this is actually good news for Dems or anything, but that amounts to <7% of the 2020 vote, so there's still a lot of room for earlys + late voters to make an impact.

[jamestroll]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's been clear for several weeks that the GOP is going to win both houses of Congress.

If one of Warnock/Fetterman/Barnes wins I'll consider today successful enough under the circumstances.

I would be so happy if Ron Johnson lost (not that I think he will). 

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The suggestion that Johnson is somehow in trouble can only be described as blatant hopium..

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

How is GA-07 looking, btw? Haven't heard much about it recently (also asking because CB is in my top fifteen favorite Dems, second in GA only behind Lucy McBath).  

[Woody]

It's been clear for several weeks that the GOP is going to win both houses of Congress.

If one of Warnock/Fetterman/Barnes wins I'll consider today successful enough under the circumstances.

I would be so happy if Ron Johnson lost (not that I think he will). 

But why? He's awesome.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

It's not a realistic possibility -- way below 1% even with the turnout data we're seeing so far.  At the moment I'd put their ceiling at about 40, although I think something in the 25-30 range is most likely.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's been clear for several weeks that the GOP is going to win both houses of Congress.

If one of Warnock/Fetterman/Barnes wins I'll consider today successful enough under the circumstances.

I would be so happy if Ron Johnson lost (not that I think he will). 

But why? He's awesome.

He's a jackass.

[EastwoodS]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

We should crowd-fund EastwoodS to get a mirror...

Stay mad that you all are losing

[Horus]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

Demonrats? Bro this forum might not be for you. We do require a brain in order to post.

We should crowd-fund EastwoodS to get a mirror...

Stay mad that you all are losing

Have you accepted Trump's loss yet?

[MillennialModerate]

The suggestion that Johnson is somehow in trouble can only be described as blatant hopium..

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

Most of the older voters propping up the scores of rural Ds that existed pre-2010 are now dead. We'd have a generational replacement in rural America.