Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[jamestroll]

CO-03 will be seen as toss up and maybe a tilting Dem lean by end of the decade.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1591051355354845185

If these break close to what the other batches have, it comes close to eliminating Laxalt's lead in one stroke.  CCM is looking really good at this point.

[YPestis25]

Folks, Cheney is still a conservative Republican. I do not see a scenario where there are enough Dems to vote elevate a Republican to the speakership, let alone a conservative one.

In a closely divided house, I still think the discharge petition prediction is the best one. Plus, rewarding your own voters for saving you in a midterm by making a Cheney Speaker is bound to backfire.

[They not like us]

If Democrats fall just short, what are the odds a few republicans defections put them over the top?

0

Suppose it’s 218-217. Not a single republican defects?

Surely there would be a republican in a super close district in New York or California who could be tempted with “You vote for Pelosi and we won’t run against you in 2024”

Not a chance. The GOP is a lot better about containing potential defectors than the Dems are. I mean, even Manchin wouldn't defect to save his political career. Defections are incredibly rare these days.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1591051355354845185

If these break close to what the other batches have, it comes close to eliminating Laxalt's lead in one stroke.  CCM is looking really good at this point.

Yeah, we still have like 14K of yesterdays batch he posted to be added to the tallies, and then you have this 35K with more to come.

Not to mention, Washoe apparently still has another 15-20K mail-ins to count too. It's only a matter of time at this point.

[wbrocks67]

I have to say, I get that DeSantis winning is a shiny object for the GOP and the media, especially with the Trump drama, but it is quite annoying that most are just outright dismissing a lot of the Dem governors who won huge. Whitmer won by nearly her 2018 margin! Shapiro won by nearly 15%! Both in *swing* states, not ones trending red like Florida. Some of them should not be outright ignored and yet DeSantis is getting all the credit only for his "massive" win when we've got a ton of other governors who had massive showings too.

Hell, even Tony Evers' 4% win in a Biden +0.3 state!

Also shout out to Janet Mills BTW too, who is absolutely destroying LePage by over 13%...

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591037046122250240

If you can't see the poll results, "Get Worse" currently has almost 99% with a little over 5,000 votes in.

Actually I don’t think it was all Boeberts fault. Polis appears to have carried the district and Bennett came very close

I really would like to know what goes through a Polis/Boebert voter’s head.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591037046122250240

If you can't see the poll results, "Get Worse" currently has almost 99% with a little over 5,000 votes in.

Actually I don’t think it was all Boeberts fault. Polis appears to have carried the district and Bennett came very close

I really would like to know what goes through a Polis/Boebert voter’s head.

Republican who’s not a fanatic but sucks it up for Boebert and who appreciates Polis for being loose with Covid restrictions?

[coloradocowboi]

Why is McLeod-Skinner only winning Clackamas by 2?

Because idiot primary voters dumped the incumbent that would be up by 5% right now. Do I prefer McLeod to Schrader? Yes. But I prefer winning more.

Imagine actually believing primarying Schrader was a mistake

If we lose the seat, then it was, period.

Schrodinger’s progressive: always responsible for the party’s defeat, even when her centrist primary opponent in effect campaigned against her in the general… even if she wins lol

[wbrocks67]

Robert Cahaly has not tweeted since Tuesday.

[new_patomic]

Robert Cahaly has not tweeted since Tuesday.

Weirdly Trafalgar just released a new poll

Q: Why hasn't Cahaly said anything since the election?

44 It has nothing to do with the midterms
31 Gerald Malloy
15 Go away
7 These aren't tears I have allergies
3 Undecided

[Mr.Phips]

Uh.. im starting to see a path and way for democrats to lose the popular vote and win the electoral college in 2024 if these results mean anything.

I don’t think Florida will be a 20 point GOP win in a Presidential year.  More like 5-6 points at most due to much better Dem turnout.

Texas will very likely be better than an 11 point loss for Dems as well, maybe 5-6 again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Robert Cahaly has not tweeted since Tuesday.

Cahaly effectively wagered his reputation and future business on this election.  He lost.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO. So the pundits that were shoving the "Latino GOP surge!" narrative down our throat for *months* are now the ones saying *but no, wait, we knew it wasn't real all along*. Give me a break!

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1591058779017093120

[Nyvin]

Another big clue with OR-5 would be looking at SD-20 in northwest Clackamas.  Mark Meek (D) is only leading there by 206 votes (0.47%) and Biden won it by over 14%.

Unless northwest Clackamas just had the bottom fall out for all Democrats, there's a big chunk of votes missing from that area, which should help McLeod-Skinner out tremendously.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why is McLeod-Skinner only winning Clackamas by 2?

Because idiot primary voters dumped the incumbent that would be up by 5% right now. Do I prefer McLeod to Schrader? Yes. But I prefer winning more.

Imagine actually believing primarying Schrader was a mistake

If we lose the seat, then it was, period.

Schrodinger’s progressive: always responsible for the party’s defeat, even when her centrist primary opponent in effect campaigned against her in the general… even if she wins lol

Yep. Who cares if she lost or won, Schrader was a sore loser to the highest degree and has no place in the Democratic party. Hopefully McLeod-Skinner tries again and wins in 24, this time with proper backing from the national party.

[Podgy the Bear]

Robert Cahaly has not tweeted since Tuesday.

Probably in flight from all of the groups that gave him money to put out blatantly fake data.  Includes Sir Woodbury and 2016.

[Spectator]

Why is McLeod-Skinner only winning Clackamas by 2?

Because idiot primary voters dumped the incumbent that would be up by 5% right now. Do I prefer McLeod to Schrader? Yes. But I prefer winning more.

Imagine actually believing primarying Schrader was a mistake

If we lose the seat, then it was, period.

Schrodinger’s progressive: always responsible for the party’s defeat, even when her centrist primary opponent in effect campaigned against her in the general… even if she wins lol

Yep. Who cares if she lost or won, Schrader was a sore loser to the highest degree and has no place in the Democratic party. Hopefully McLeod-Skinner tries again and wins in 24, this time with proper backing from the national party.

Probably stronger Democrats to be found than McLeod-Skinner for 2024 if she loses this year.

[wbrocks67]

Also, maybe this will teach the press to not write entire articles on sample sizes that are like n=150

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1587842671711756291

[wbrocks67]

Another big clue with OR-5 would be looking at SD-20 in northwest Clackamas.  Mark Meek (D) is only leading there by 206 votes (0.47%) and Biden won it by over 14%.

Unless northwest Clackamas just had the bottom fall out for all Democrats, there's a big chunk of votes missing from that area, which should help McLeod-Skinner out tremendously.

Yeah, given the results so far, it would appear that a lot of what is left in Clackamas is likely pretty damn blue. We'll see if it's enough to get Skinner over the top. Wapo seems to like her odds in their model.

[Devils30]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

Also NJ. Democrats may very well regret costing Malinowski his seat in redistricting.

Dems strategy should be simple:
NY: Go to the courts again, try to get the Hochulmander back without DiFiore
MN: Draw a 6-2 with MN-1 and 8 flipping blue
WI: Try to get a 4-4 redraw, at the very least they will get the state leg maps out (assuming they win the election in April)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Robert Cahaly has not tweeted since Tuesday.

Weirdly Trafalgar just released a new poll

Q: Why hasn't Cahaly said anything since the election?

44 It has nothing to do with the midterms
31 Gerald Malloy
15 Go away
7 These aren't tears I have allergies
3 Undecided

Needs more decimals

[Agafin]

I have to say, I get that DeSantis winning is a shiny object for the GOP and the media, especially with the Trump drama, but it is quite annoying that most are just outright dismissing a lot of the Dem governors who won huge. Whitmer won by nearly her 2018 margin! Shapiro won by nearly 15%! Both in *swing* states, not ones trending red like Florida. Some of them should not be outright ignored and yet DeSantis is getting all the credit only for his "massive" win when we've got a ton of other governors who had massive showings too.

Hell, even Tony Evers' 4% win in a Biden +0.3 state!

Also shout out to Janet Mills BTW too, who is absolutely destroying LePage by over 13%...

The difference between Desantis and all of those is that he's clearly seen as the strongest contender to the 2024 presidency after Biden and maybe Trump. While folks like Phil Scott, Sununu or Dewine technically overperdormed their states' partisan lean even more than him, none of them can really win a GOP primary. Same is true for the democrats you mentioned. They would never attempt to primary Trump so they'd be more interesting in 2028 or something.

[wbrocks67]

I have to say, I get that DeSantis winning is a shiny object for the GOP and the media, especially with the Trump drama, but it is quite annoying that most are just outright dismissing a lot of the Dem governors who won huge. Whitmer won by nearly her 2018 margin! Shapiro won by nearly 15%! Both in *swing* states, not ones trending red like Florida. Some of them should not be outright ignored and yet DeSantis is getting all the credit only for his "massive" win when we've got a ton of other governors who had massive showings too.

Hell, even Tony Evers' 4% win in a Biden +0.3 state!

Also shout out to Janet Mills BTW too, who is absolutely destroying LePage by over 13%...

The difference between Desantis and all of those is that he's clearly seen as the strongest contender to the 2024 presidency after Biden and maybe Trump. While folks like Phil Scott, Sununu or Dewine technically overperdormed their states' partisan lean even more than him, none of them can really win a GOP primary. Same is true for the democrats you mentioned. They would never attempt to primary Trump so they'd be more interesting in 2028 or something.

True, yeah I get it - and that's exactly why the press is focusing so much on him. Still just kind of annoying that outside of that, many are still focusing on the overperformance of him in FL when strong Dem recruits did the same thing in swing states. Just wish they got a bit more coverage. Press wants the DeSantis/Trump fight, so i'm not surprised they are making an even bigger deal out of it

[wbrocks67]

Amazing how there is a common denominator with nearly all these polls

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1591045945948573696