Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Reading more about the NV situation, I am dooming less now. If every voter was mailed a ballot, and if you can just drop it off or mail it today without having to wait in line at the polling site, who would waste time actually voting in person (which are the only numbers we are seeing)? It’s not surprising that the only ones are MAGA lunatics who think absentee ballots are woke trans Soros socialism.

That makes a ton of sense, the alternative being a localised dropoff of democratic voters doesn't make much sense.

[soundchaser]

In politics, especially in the modern era, the lines between what people consider to be their “subjective” opinions versus “objective” fact are often very, very blurred.

My "subjective" opinion is that this is one of the most annoying possible ways you could be posting right now.

[Lief 🗽]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I just don't understand how the democrats loosing a federal office they've held for almost 30 years isn't a bad sign and indicative of a very republican enviorment. Swings in seats considered safe can be random especially small ones. The texas 27th district had a pretty random swing uncorrelated with the national enviorment, but that doesn't mean if the republicans took the district it would be a catastrophic sign for the democrats.

Honestly, I think accepting the results now is the best way forward. That way you're prepared to recive them when they come and if you turn out to be wrong you just get a pleasant suprise instead of dread.

I think we all know that it's going to be a bad night, it's just that the results for a non-voting delegate in Guam (especially when Democrats did well in other races there) aren't a sign of it.

Why would Republicans winning be “bad”?

I'm not him, but I'll guess that it's because he's a Democrat and wants Democrats to win. What kind of question is that?

He said that as if it was an objective fact, not his personal opinion.

Usually when someone says that something is "bad" or "good" the unstated assumption is that they are stating an opinion, seeing as how "bad" and "good" are (typically) subjective terms. The way he used the word was perfectly understandable.

In politics, especially in the modern era, the lines between what people consider to be their “subjective” opinions versus “objective” fact are often very, very blurred.

If you chose to misinterpret an obviously subjective statement that's on you. Everyone knew what he meant. I'm going to stop clogging up the thread with more comments on this.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think I'm just going to go offline until, like 8 PM. The first hour or two of results is rarely helpful in figuring things out and honestly I'd rather be doing literally anything other than adding to my stress in that way.

I actually disagree.  Looking at county swings in the Indiana and Kentucky counties that will close soon can actually be informative for similar rural counties.  Like, I could tell in 2020 that Trump's margins were slightly down from 2016 in a lot of those counties.

Eh, not in the first hour or so, at least not for me. Too much inconsistency with when batches of mail/early/election day votes were coming in. After that it started to get *a bit* more informative.

[Eraserhead]

Trump's favorables are at 37/60 per CNN.

Yeah, that's pretty incredible. Granted most people said their vote wasn't related to him positively or negatively.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590110891344728064?cxt=HHwWgMCogcrbmp...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

lol.

[redjohn]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

R 57% confirmed!

[new_patomic]

We are now projecting the longest fifteen minutes of your year.

You weren't kidding

[wbrocks67]

Okay, giving myself a dose of reality after being burned by exits in the past, but wow if true-

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=SVrdyX81...

[pantsaregood]

I hope all those Trafalgar polls are Wrong

Is it not going to be a 303 map any more?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JustR_02/status/1590112463114366977?t=oAovqgcR0t5ABqIMGYKc0g...

And there's the difference between a Republican wave and a close election.  We'll see which is closer pretty soon.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/JustR_02/status/1590112463114366977?t=oAovqgcR0t5ABqIMGYKc0g...

Just average them out. 40/20 or thereabouts.

[soundchaser]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

If true (big if), this would certainly explain the turnout we're seeing in Philadelphia County right now.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL I wish my school wifi didn't block the tweets. Anyway, T-minus five.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

R 57% confirmed!

Looks like sticking with Fetterman may have been the right choice. Will be fun to laugh in the face of Sabato and the Atlas Consensus Map if he holds on.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JustR_02/status/1590112463114366977?t=oAovqgcR0t5ABqIMGYKc0g...

The FOX numbers are much closer to my expectations, so I'll believe that until proven otherwise..

How is FOX framing the question though? Again, we've seen a big difference between "What is the most pressing issue facing the country" and something like "What is the most important issue today that is influencing your vote"?

[MillennialModerate]

I hope all those Trafalgar polls are Wrong

Is it not going to be a 303 map any more?

The post I needed to read more than air

[TheReckoning]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

I don’t know if you’re being serious, but given how perhaps 40% of those saying abortion are ER type pro-life single issue voters, and the next 2 categories are having people overwhelmingly vote Republican, this isn’t exactly a beacon of hope for Democrats.

[Eraserhead]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

The Oz camp can't be thrilled by that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

PA Sen: Tossup > Safe D

[Devils30]

Trump's favorables are at 37/60 per CNN.

Too low, but people are ready for a new face and both sides know it.

[ListMan38]

Entirely possible a non-zero amount of people with Abortion as an issue are pro-lifers

[Sestak]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

PA Sen: Tossup > Safe DR

Have you seen Wulfric's past record? RIP Fetterman.