Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[DaleCooper]

NYT back to labeling AZ as favorable to Kelly.

[Alben Barkley]

MSNBC now saying that Kevin McCarthy could lose the Speaker's race even IF the GOP narrowly wins the House as a result of this catastrophe.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I count fifteen counties left that either myself or wbrocks haven't covered (or at least they haven't reached 90% reporting).  

We can take Allegheny County off the list.  >95% reporting.  The second largest in the state, this county needs no introduction, being the home of Pittsburgh, the Steelers, Pirates, and Penguins

Fetterman leads 63-35.  Biden won here 59-39 in 2020.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm sorry for turning full doomer, but honestly I got way too caught up will the all the pre-election stuff from reputable people like Wasserman and Rastlon.

There was so much banking from pollsters and pundits about a shy republican vote/Democratic polling bias as well as the GOP's past performance in previous Democratic incumbent midterms that nobody really saw this coming.

I think that tonight, along with all the other elections in the past five years, confirms two things:

1. Hidden Trump voters do exist.

2. They're Trump voters.  If he's not on the ballot, they stay in hiding.

[Skill and Chance]

What is the outstanding vote in PA?  Mostly mail-ins or mostly election day?  Getting kind of close there.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So uh, what happened here? Did the polls overcompensate for their mistakes in 2020 and overestimate Republicans? Per usual, we'll spend Thanksgiving discussing which polls were the best and which ones sucked. But the minority of polls that had Dems leading the GCB were obviously closer than the ones predicting R+5, because it's not happening even if Republicans win the House.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO Lake sounds like she's having a real one right now

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, for whatever reason estimated remaining vote totals don't seem very reliable out of NY. Take the current results with a grain of caution, even if it says its 95% done. In the priamry they said they were 95% done when really only half the vote was in. Doubt we see that big of an error this time but soemthing to consider

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm sorry for turning full doomer, but honestly I got way too caught up will the all the pre-election stuff from reputable people like Wasserman and Rastlon.

If there is one thing we need to learn after both 2020 and 2022, the internal polling that the election experts rely on for these things is ABSOLUTE TRASH. Worse than the public polling most of the time, it seems.

[DaleCooper]

Speaking of Hobbs, Democrats should still be mad at her. She made many mistakes that could have cost her this election if she loses, especially knowing how favorable the environment ended up being for her.

What were her big mistakes ? Skipping the debates seem like a good idea in retrospect.

I think skipping the debates was a mistake. I think that she surrendered a lot of the messaging to Lake, which to be fair may have inadvertently helped Hobbs, lol. But even if she wins I don't think we should be complacent and pretend that she ran an ideal campaign.

[Aurelius]

Kermit Jones is still leading.....

Oh My God.

How is this even possible ?

In 2020, Tom Mcclintock, the Republican won this area 54 to 45.

30 percent of the vote is in. When 30 percent of the vote was in in VA in 2020, Trump was leading by double digits. Can you stop spamming the same thing over and over and over when nothing has changed?

[GeorgiaModerate]

WTF is Nevada doing?

.
They can't release any results until the last voter in line has voted.  There were long lines in some precincts; I've seen one estimate that it will be at least 1am EST before they report, maybe longer.

[Schiff for Senate]

So uh, what's the over-under on Ken Calvert coming back from being 13 points behind?

Calvert's been in Congress for 30 years. He's a very dirty guy - just see his Wikipedia page.
I'd just love for him to lose.
He can be the GOP version of Collin Peterson if he does - a 30-year incumbent who lost reelection.

His new district is a lot less favorable, at only Trump + 1.

It really comes down to whether or not heavily Dem and heavily LGBTQ Palm Springs has disproportionately high tunout to the more conservative LA suburbs/exurbs whatever you want to call them.

Of course, there are other fundamental differences between him and Peterson, too - Peterson's district was trending Republican, he was on borrowed time, he was the most conservative Democrat in the House, a Blue Dog (like all those Deep South McCain state/district Democrats in the late 2000s - only a decade later, and in western Minnesota). But his loss, after serving for 30 years, was a painful blow to him for sure, and to local Democrats.
Calverts' loss after serving 30 years will be delightful to watch. Assuming it is a loss; I've not followed his race at all.

[wbrocks67]

So uh, what happened here? Did the polls overcompensate for their mistakes in 2020 and overestimate Republicans? Per usual, we'll spend Thanksgiving discussing which polls were the best and which ones sucked. But the minority of polls that had Dems leading the GCB were obviously closer than the ones predicting R+5, because it's not happening even if Republicans win the House.

I mean, again, if you averaged the nonpartisan House GCB polls (via Split Ticket), it was tied. So this wasn't something that was insanely unpredictable. But I think a lot of hack GOP polls *did* flood the zone, assuming there would be a huge GOP turnout surge, which there was not.

[Alben Barkley]

Just like 2020, the networks are still pretending races like PA are close when even us Atlasians could have called it hours ago.

[jojoju1998]

Kermit Jones is still leading.....

Oh My God.

How is this even possible ?

In 2020, Tom Mcclintock, the Republican won this area 54 to 45.

30 percent of the vote is in. When 30 percent of the vote was in in VA in 2020, Trump was leading by double digits. Can you stop spamming the same thing over and over and over when nothing has changed?

Find i'll sh!t up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kermit Jones is still leading.....

Oh My God.

How is this even possible ?

In 2020, Tom Mcclintock, the Republican won this area 54 to 45.

It is only a Trump + 2 district and many would argue the Dem base is higher propensity.

Also, not very much of the vote is in.

[wbrocks67]

I count fifteen counties left that either myself or wbrocks haven't covered (or at least they haven't reached 90% reporting).  

We can take Allegheny County off the list.  >95% reporting.  The second largest in the state, this county needs no introduction, being the home of Pittsburgh, the Steelers, Pirates, and Penguins

Fetterman leads 63-35.  Biden won here 59-39 in 2020.  

Fetterman really honed into the hometown thing in Allegheny. Great choice for him to juice turnout.

[Schiff for Senate]

MSNBC now saying that Kevin McCarthy could lose the Speaker's race even IF the GOP narrowly wins the House as a result of this catastrophe.

That's the second time he's been brushed aside for Speaker, lol.

I hope you enjoy the position of House Minority/Majority Leader, Kevin. Because that's all you'll ever be. For all your trashing of Nancy Pelosi - she at least became Speaker of the House. That's something you will never experience!

[Pres Mike]

Warnock back in the lead in GA

Where?

[jamestroll]

It is official..

MO Sen 2022 was closer than MO-President 2020 and Florida Senate 2022


and the democratic senate candidate in MO was not that impressive...

[wbrocks67]

What is the outstanding vote in PA?  Mostly mail-ins or mostly election day?  Getting kind of close there.

Philly seems to be a mix of ED and VBM. Montco seems to be both too. Bucks I think is a lot of VBM.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Lief 🗽]

Gavin please… it’s time to work your magic

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590214233094230017?s=46&t=WFg3JCN8kxNe...

[oldtimer]

NYT back to labeling AZ as favorable to Kelly.

No election day votes in Arizona so far, and no new votes since the initial voter dump.
The Needle reacts a bit from results on other correlated states.