Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Crumpets]

Maximum possible chaos scenario: GOP picks up the House, but by like 3 seats. They can't find anyone that can unify the caucus to become Speaker of the House, so a couple defect to make one of those "unity coalitions" we sometimes get in state legislatures, and we get a GOP House with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I think by the end of the night, Ryan will have kept it to within 4 or 5 points, probably 47/53ish... In which case I believe he'll be responsible for us holding the 1st, 13th and even the 9th (although Kaptur is a strong candidate on her own) so I thank him for his service cause we absolutely need every seat.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Kelly now up to nearly 20% with half in.

[SevenEleven]

The West Coast is going to be a GOP nightmare, isn't it?

Yes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1590190848817647617?s=20&t=2xFWvYWzwfog...

[MasterJedi]

I have no idea how Wisconsin could have Democrats sweep the state local offices and yet people, a lot of them, split the ballot to Ron Johnson? Makes no real sense since he’s the more odious of the two (Johnson vs Michaels).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Pike County, PA (one of the fastest growing counties in the state) @ >95%

Oz leads 59-39, Trump won here 59-40 -- perhaps one of the few places where Fetterman may underperform Biden.

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone else miss the DUM DUM DUMMMM that MSNBC did with projections before?

[7,052,770]

NYT has all 435 House seats divided into 5 columns.

There are 159 Safe D, 28 Lean/Likely D, and 36 Tossups.

It would take all of the left 2 columns, plus 31/36 of the Tossups for Dems to take the House. (Or they could win some in the other 2 columns to replace any they lose.) Right now it seems ... possible?

[sting in the rafters]

Time is a flat circle

[brucejoel99]

RED WAVE:

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1590191823892643840

[oldtimer]

My Hot take.

Pennsylvania was never in doubt for Fetterman if you looked at the Primary results.
Rural Whites clearly loved Fetterman because he was one of them, and hated Oz because he was a muslim (I remember the religious right attacks on Oz).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I guess Beto's political career is over. He lost two major statewide races and went no where in a presidential primary.

He could pull a John James and carpetbag to a fitting house district

This is probably the best hope for him in the long-run. That, or as state chair of the TX Dems.

[Horus]

All polls in the contiguous 48 are now closed.

[WD]

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I have no idea how Wisconsin could have Democrats sweep the state local offices and yet people, a lot of them, split the ballot to Ron Johnson? Makes no real sense since he’s the more odious of the two (Johnson vs Michaels).

Senate more nationalized?

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

My perception and analysis is that Democrats are always pre-maturely electulating on social media over turnout tidbits and such for hours on end and then Republican game show hosts with forty ex-wives and a felony history win anyway.  Today they were all on the edge of the cliff getting ready to haunt Susan Sarandon in the afterlife and therefore the Democrats did fairly well.  Maybe we should just ask Fred across the street what he thinks about the big election rather than read the entrails of farm animals with a bunch of blue-checks who are just getting out of the behavioral health unit they checked into when Elon bought Twitter.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maximum possible chaos scenario: GOP picks up the House, but by like 3 seats. They can't find anyone that can unify the caucus to become Speaker of the House, so a couple defect to make one of those "unity coalitions" we sometimes get in state legislatures, and we get a GOP House with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.

SPEAKER LIZ CHENEY INCOMING

[Frodo]

DEMOCRATS UP TO 209 SEATS ON THE NEEDLE

Is a 218 to 217 House (for either party) in the cards?  Let's make it so!  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver's latest comment on the 538 blog:

I really want to emphasize again that figuring out who wins the Senate and maybe even the House could take a long time. I have a dinner reservation with a friend on Thursday night and warned him there was a 20 percent chance I’d have to cancel because I’d get pulled into work. I think the chances of that are way north of 20 percent now.

[Logical]

Ryan will lose and Vance will be a senator (yuck) but that was the most successful kamikaze run in recent history.

[jojoju1998]

You can't even explain Elliott County voting to shoot down the anti-abortion amendment as just "ancestral Dems voting for party identity going back generations" lol. They didn't vote for a party or candidate, they genuinely and directly voted for socially liberal policy this time!

What a wacky county, I'll always love it!

There's a difference between the Evangelical Southern Baptist Deep South Right, and the Applachian Populist ex New Deal right.

Remember that unlike Alabama, Arkansas; Kentucky only shifted drastically Republican quite recently.


And yet you guys still have a Democratic governor.

I dunno if there's a hugely significant difference between these two areas when it comes to abortion policy, though...

Yes there is.

Safe Legal, and Rare. Remember Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign ? Hint : He did very well in Appalachia.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN calls so far for Senate: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5Pp4L8

[DaleCooper]

Oz was a terrible candidate.  Trumpers didn’t like him nor did moderate R’s.  He appealed to no one.

Easily the worst candidate of either party in a competitive congressional race. I guess that fat guy running against Kaptur was worse, but a single House district is so much lower stakes that it's more excusable than letting Oz run for Senate. The Republicans should blame their false god for this one.

[7,052,770]

NYT has all 435 House seats divided into 5 columns.

There are 159 Safe D, 28 Lean/Likely D, and 36 Tossups.

It would take all of the left 2 columns, plus 31/36 of the Tossups for Dems to take the House. (Or they could win some in the other 2 columns to replace any they lose.) Right now it seems ... possible?

Also the needle how at 226-209, drifting even more toward the Democrats.