TX-GOV/Harris County Judge (Hobby School UH) (Harris County only): Beto +8, Mealer +2

[Real Texan Politics]

As expected, Mealer will more than likely outrun Abbott by several points due to the issue of crime alone.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaFechter/status/1584525527624261632?s=20&t=SkxVdqi4...
Interestingly enough, later in the thread, it's stated that 6% of Beto voters plan to vote for Mealer, while 1% of Abbott voters plan to vote for Hidalgo.

I should also point out that a whopping 81% of LVs in this poll say the issue of rising crime is "very important" to their vote in the Harris County Judge race, and 46% say Mealer is better on the issue than Hidalgo.

[Calthrina950]

I think Mealer is going to win at this point. Hidalgo has been terrible and was swept into office by the Democratic wave in 2018, ousting a longtime Republican incumbent who was well regarded locally, from what I've read.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is the 3rd poll (albeit 1 was a Republican firm) with Mealer winning and Abbott within single digits. Either Harris county polling is off by 3 different sources, or those mysterious Abbott internals are complete garbage and this will be called at polls closing.

[kwabbit]

This is the 3rd poll (albeit 1 was a Republican firm) with Mealer winning and Abbott within single digits. Either Harris county polling is off by 3 different sources, or those mysterious Abbott internals are complete garbage and this will be called at polls closing.

If the GOP is making disproportionate gains with Hispanic and Black voters, which is certainly possible, Harris County would trend right. As green energy becomes a more salient issue it might also drive it further right. Harris is the reason why Blexas isn’t a certainty.

[Skill and Chance]

For reference:

2016: Clinton +12
2018: Beto +17
2020: Biden +13

I buy the general swing back right, but what were Hidalgo's "sins" to end up trailing Beto by 10?!

[Calthrina950]

For reference:

2016: Clinton +12
2018: Beto +17
2020: Biden +13

I buy the general swing back right, but what were Hidalgo's "sins" to end up trailing Beto by 10?!

Concerns over crime, coupled with corruption allegations that have engulfed a number of Hidalgo's subordinates, and criticism of her "overly harsh" handling of the coronavirus pandemic in Harris County.

[Calthrina950]

This is the 3rd poll (albeit 1 was a Republican firm) with Mealer winning and Abbott within single digits. Either Harris county polling is off by 3 different sources, or those mysterious Abbott internals are complete garbage and this will be called at polls closing.

This poll seems to indicate that Harris County is barely budging compared to 2018. O'Rourke cannot win statewide if he's only carrying Harris County by single digits. Remember that he carried Harris by 17% when he lost to Cruz in 2018.

[Real Texan Politics]

For reference:

2016: Clinton +12
2018: Beto +17
2020: Biden +13

I buy the general swing back right, but what were Hidalgo's "sins" to end up trailing Beto by 10?!

Rising crime, corruption, apparently even Hidalgo herself said she expected to be indicted.