CNN/SSRS: Evers +2, Shapiro +11, Whitmer +6

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1584578056572006401?s=20&t=5_rGHs5rNq7Cf45...

[Person Man]

Looks legit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it looks legit it's the 279 blue wall that's always there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's called the 303 blue wall

[Person Man]

No way WI re-elects Evers. They remember Kenosha.

I take it back. I mockingly talked about ABORTION being what all these people are switching their votes about but it appears to race relations.

[Eraserhead]

Damn, Clinton News Network did something useful for once. Nice polls!

[2016]

CNN/SSRS POLLS vastly overestimated Joe Biden in 2020:

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1584586087032578049

They haven't learned their Lesson.

Bottom Line: If there is EVEN a slight polling miss in WI, MI Michels and Dixon are going to win these Races.

If you account for the bad Polling Miss in PA 2020 by CNN/SSRS Oz would be ahead.

CNN/SSRS Polls adjusted for their 2020 Polling Miss in 2020:

WI
Michels 51
Evers 45

Johnson 51
Barnes 44

MI
Whitmer 47
Dixon 46

PA
Oz 45
Fetterman 43

Shapiro 47
Mastriano 41

[wbrocks67]

CNN/SSRS POLLS vastly overestimated Joe Biden in 2020:

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1584586087032578049

They haven't learned their Lesson.

Bottom Line: If there is EVEN a slight polling miss in WI, MI Michels and Dixon are going to win these Races.

If you account for the bad Polling Miss in PA 2020 by CNN/SSRS Oz would be ahead.

You can take this multiple ways. Their RV # was Biden +5. Overestimated by 4. So Fetterman is +11 among RV, so he must be up by 7 then!

[wbrocks67]

These RV-LV splits are pretty insane.

Whitmer is up by 14 among RV, 55-41, but only 6 among LV, 52-46.

[2016]

These RV-LV splits are pretty insane.

Whitmer is up by 14 among RV, 55-41, but only 6 among LV, 52-46.

I am just very dubious of these CNN Polls in general. They had Gillum leading DeSantis 54-42 two weeks before the 2018 Midterms.

[President Johnson]

Very well within the range of possibilities and at least not a Republican pollster again (although CNN was off in the past). The Pennsylvania race seems pretty much a done deal at this point.

[wbrocks67]

These RV-LV splits are pretty insane.

Whitmer is up by 14 among RV, 55-41, but only 6 among LV, 52-46.

I am just very dubious of these CNN Polls in general. They had Gillum leading DeSantis 54-42 two weeks before the 2018 Midterms.

I'm skeptical of RV/LV splits that are that big, I could see a point or two, but an 8 pt delta just seems kinda ridiculous.

[Gass3268]

No way WI re-elects Evers. They remember Kenosha.

Nobody outside of Kenosha cares about Kenosha, if they did all the surrounding counties wouldn’t have swung Dem in 2020.

[Mr. Illini]

No way WI re-elects Evers. They remember Kenosha.

Nobody in Wisconsin is basing their 2022 vote on anything that happened in Kenosha.

[President Johnson]

No way WI re-elects Evers. They remember Kenosha.

Nobody in Wisconsin is basing their 2022 vote on anything that happened in Kenosha.

And anyone who does was never going to vote for Evers anyway.

[wbrocks67]

Can the thread title be changed?

The PA poll is actually Shapiro +15, 56-41

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No way WI re-elects Evers. They remember Kenosha.

This isn’t Twitter or Facebook.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These RV-LV splits are pretty insane.

Whitmer is up by 14 among RV, 55-41, but only 6 among LV, 52-46.

I am just very dubious of these CNN Polls in general. They had Gillum leading DeSantis 54-42 two weeks before the 2018 Midterms.

That is FL lol

[Person Man]

How accurate were they in 2018?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How accurate were they in 2018?

Not terrible.  It looks like these were their final polls in the following races (LV/RV):

TN-SEN: R+4/R+1
FL-SEN: D+2/tie
NV-SEN: D+3/D+3
AZ-SEN: D+4/D+3
TN-GOV: R+10/R+11
FL-GOV: D+1/D+3
AZ-GOV: R+7/R+9
TX-SEN: R+7/R+5
TX-GOV: R+18/R+18
MO-SEN: D+3/D+1
VA-SEN: D+18/D+18

The Florida results were within MOE.  They underestimated Blackburn in TN and got MO-SEN wrong (although that poll was in September).  Otherwise pretty good.

[Person Man]

How accurate were they in 2018?

Not terrible.  It looks like these were their final polls in the following races (LV/RV):

TN-SEN: R+4/R+1
FL-SEN: D+2/tie
NV-SEN: D+3/D+3
AZ-SEN: D+4/D+3
TN-GOV: R+10/R+11
FL-GOV: D+1/D+3
AZ-GOV: R+7/R+9
TX-SEN: R+7/R+5
TX-GOV: R+18/R+18
MO-SEN: D+3/D+1
VA-SEN: D+18/D+18

The Florida results were within MOE.  They underestimated Blackburn in TN and got MO-SEN wrong (although that poll was in September).  Otherwise pretty good.

So there you go.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good poll for these said Democratic candidates.