NY-Gov (Bold Decision): Hochul +15

[Gass3268]

Hochul 52%
Zeldin 37%

Source

[wbrocks67]

Comes out to about 55-40 with leaners too.

We certainly have a lot of new pollsters coming out of the woodwork in the last few weeks! lol

I also have to laugh just for the fact that the Long Island result (R+2) is literally the same as the Siena Long Island poll last week.

[Eraserhead]

I'm sure RCP is gonna be right on top of adding this one.

[Duke of York]

this seems more like the final result. I think Zeldin's ceiling is around 42 percent.

[2016]

12 % Undecided and all most all of them will Vote Zeldin.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

12 % Undecided and all most all of them will Vote Zeldin.

Cool story bro.

[Eraserhead]

this seems more like the final result. I think Zeldin's ceiling is around 42 percent.

I think he could maybe get to 45% in a big Republican night in the state (and country?).

[2016]

12 % Undecided and all most all of them will Vote Zeldin.

Cool story bro.

Democrats could lose four Congressional Seats in New York alone.

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful—and accurate—poll!

[Matty]

Wasn’t bold decision once a pretty prolific pollster?

I recall lots of their polls in 2012 and 2014, then they stopped

[GeorgiaModerate]

12 % Undecided and all most all of them will Vote Zeldin.

You’re wishcasting. In highly partisan states, undecided voters tend to break toward the majority party. Do you think the undecideds in Ohio will break Democratic? If not, why would you think they’d break R in NY?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wasn’t bold decision once a pretty prolific pollster?

I recall lots of their polls in 2012 and 2014, then they stopped

They made a bold decision. 

[Sir Mohamed]

Finally a NYS poll that isn't instant garbage. I think 15 pt. margin is well within the range of possibilities, or perhaps still one of the better outcomes Zeldin can hope for.

Still kind of frustrating the dude isn't polling much worse since he's way too far to the right, especially for the state he wants to govern.

[Calthrina950]

Finally a NYS poll that isn't instant garbage. I think 15 pt. margin is well within the range of possibilities, or perhaps still one of the better outcomes Zeldin can hope for.

Still kind of frustrating the dude isn't polling much worse since he's way too far to the right, especially for the state he wants to govern.

Frustration with the economy and crime in New York City, along with grievances held by some minority groups such as Orthodox Jews against the state government, are fueling Zeldin's candidacy, and he has been avoiding the issues of abortion and January 6th. He has been focusing heavily on local issues.

[Duke of York]

12 % Undecided and all most all of them will Vote Zeldin.

and you know this how? undecided voters aren't a monolithic bloc.

[wbrocks67]

Finally a NYS poll that isn't instant garbage. I think 15 pt. margin is well within the range of possibilities, or perhaps still one of the better outcomes Zeldin can hope for.

Still kind of frustrating the dude isn't polling much worse since he's way too far to the right, especially for the state he wants to govern.

Frustration with the economy and crime in New York City, along with grievances held by some minority groups such as Orthodox Jews against the state government, are fueling Zeldin's candidacy, and he has been avoiding the issues of abortion and January 6th. He has been focusing heavily on local issues.

and? What kind of argument is this - just because the candidate himself is ignoring them, people aren't hearing about it? Of course candidates are going to avoid their weaknesses.

[Calthrina950]

Finally a NYS poll that isn't instant garbage. I think 15 pt. margin is well within the range of possibilities, or perhaps still one of the better outcomes Zeldin can hope for.

Still kind of frustrating the dude isn't polling much worse since he's way too far to the right, especially for the state he wants to govern.

Frustration with the economy and crime in New York City, along with grievances held by some minority groups such as Orthodox Jews against the state government, are fueling Zeldin's candidacy, and he has been avoiding the issues of abortion and January 6th. He has been focusing heavily on local issues.

and? What kind of argument is this - just because the candidate himself is ignoring them, people aren't hearing about it? Of course candidates are going to avoid their weaknesses.

You entirely ignored the first half of my post. I was explaining why Zeldin has been doing as well as he has. The abortion issue clearly hasn't resonated to the extent Democrats hoped for in New York. Hochul has been attacking Zeldin constantly over abortion, and he's responded by pledging not to upset the status quo in the state. As I've said before, you seem to believe that every Republican candidate is terrible and has nothing to recommend them.

[wbrocks67]

Finally a NYS poll that isn't instant garbage. I think 15 pt. margin is well within the range of possibilities, or perhaps still one of the better outcomes Zeldin can hope for.

Still kind of frustrating the dude isn't polling much worse since he's way too far to the right, especially for the state he wants to govern.

Frustration with the economy and crime in New York City, along with grievances held by some minority groups such as Orthodox Jews against the state government, are fueling Zeldin's candidacy, and he has been avoiding the issues of abortion and January 6th. He has been focusing heavily on local issues.

and? What kind of argument is this - just because the candidate himself is ignoring them, people aren't hearing about it? Of course candidates are going to avoid their weaknesses.

You entirely ignored the first half of my post. I was explaining why Zeldin has been doing as well as he has. The abortion issue clearly hasn't resonated to the extent Democrats hoped for in New York. Hochul has been attacking Zeldin constantly over abortion, and he's responded by pledging not to upset the status quo in the state. As I've said before, you seem to believe that every Republican candidate is terrible and has nothing to recommend them.

And why would anyone believe him?

[Calthrina950]

Finally a NYS poll that isn't instant garbage. I think 15 pt. margin is well within the range of possibilities, or perhaps still one of the better outcomes Zeldin can hope for.

Still kind of frustrating the dude isn't polling much worse since he's way too far to the right, especially for the state he wants to govern.

Frustration with the economy and crime in New York City, along with grievances held by some minority groups such as Orthodox Jews against the state government, are fueling Zeldin's candidacy, and he has been avoiding the issues of abortion and January 6th. He has been focusing heavily on local issues.

and? What kind of argument is this - just because the candidate himself is ignoring them, people aren't hearing about it? Of course candidates are going to avoid their weaknesses.

You entirely ignored the first half of my post. I was explaining why Zeldin has been doing as well as he has. The abortion issue clearly hasn't resonated to the extent Democrats hoped for in New York. Hochul has been attacking Zeldin constantly over abortion, and he's responded by pledging not to upset the status quo in the state. As I've said before, you seem to believe that every Republican candidate is terrible and has nothing to recommend them.

And why would anyone believe him?

What else would you have him say? Adopt a fully pro-choice position on the issue? I still believe that Hochul is going to win, but there is clearly a segment of normally Democratic voters in New York who care more about crime, inflation, and corruption than they do about abortion and are giving Zeldin their support.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sounds about right

[Senator Incitatus]

12 % Undecided and all most all of them will Vote Zeldin.

You’re wishcasting. In highly partisan states, undecided voters tend to break toward the majority party. Do you think the undecideds in Ohio will break Democratic? If not, why would you think they’d break R in NY?

What happened in New Jersey? How undecided voters break is determined by why they were undecided, not what state they're in.