1986.
Jenkins presidency had been successful by recent standards and had a
working relationship with the ongoing Conservative legislature. His own
party however was in deep decline and a union with the Liberals was on
the cards. However Jenkins was able to distance himself from the
troubles and was easily confirmed as the Alliance candidate. Labour had
pulled itself together but Benn, now outside the party was still pledged
to run. Neil Kinnock's victory in the nomination was a certainty and his
candidacy, on the outside, looked credible, though to one half of the
public there seemed to be little to differentiate himself from
increasingly statist Jenkins, and to the other half of the public he was
nothing more than 'Benn light'. Kinnocks struggle to define himself
ultimately hurt his campaign. The Conservatives had the choice between
Finance Minister Nigel Lawson, recent renegade Michael Heseltine and
Geoffrey Howe. Heseltines victory was uninspiring as the presidency as a
political position was still unpopular within his party. His victory was
expected and his support gathered before his announcement. With Winnie
Ewing standing as the combined Nationalist candidate again (despite
groans from Plaid, they could still not muster the signatures needed for
a run) Jenkins remained abreast of his rivals throughout the campaign
and despite a strong start, Benn's campaign collapsed around him. Kinnock and Heseltine changed places in the polls in the final week until Heseltine broke free.
1986:
Jenkins: 31.4%
Heseltine 29.3%
Kinnock 25.1%
Benn 11.4%
Ewing 2.8%
Once again Tony Benn had caused the failure of the Labour candidate to progress to the second round, though with Jenkin's lower than expected tally it was later presumed that many Benn voters had done so in order to freeze out Kinnock and allow Heseltine through (If placed second Kinnock had promised to run again in 1990)
Round 2:
Jenkins 57.2%
Heseltine 42.8%
1990.
Jenkins close working association with the deeply unpopular Conservative
administration dragged down his own personal ratings but being barred
from a third term and with the Alliance now dissolved, alongside the SDP
he had no preferred successor. Alan Beith and Paddy Ashdown were the two front runners for the new Liberal Democrat nomination which Beith
secured. Labour's nomination battle was somewhat deflated with Robin
Cook, Bryan Gould, Ann Clwyd and John Smith declaring. An emotional
Smith secured the nomination during the conference. As for the
Conservative's, Heseltine pledged to run again, but was beaten in the
final selection by Kenneth Clarke who had failed to secure the
premiership after Thatcher's resignation as Prime Minister in early
1989. The Conservatives had not held the Presidency since 1974 despite
controlling the Commons for most of the period and Clarke was seen as a
popular choice who distanced himself from the failing Conservative
administration. Popular or not, he was intensly disliked by the
eurosceptic right of his own party. Alex Salmond ran under a 'United
National' ticket after Plaid Cymru, again to their dismay marginally
failed to get their candidate on the ballot, but strove to broaden his
appeal outside Scotland and Wales where, by law, he was still on the
ballot.
Smith had a brisk start to the campaign, accusing Clarke of being 'in
bed' with an unpopular benefit to which Norman Tebbit remarked with one
of the most memorable campaign quotes; 'Bed? He's sleeping on the
couch.' Clarke was struggling to maintain unity but also distance from
his party. Alan Beith's campaign was hardly noticed as he languished at
10% throughout the campaign. As the race itself progressed, Smith and
Clarke stayed steady in the 40's in most polls.
1990:
Smith 44.1
Clarke 39.2
Beith 11.3
Salmond 5.4
The second round was heated and the polls were close. Clarke, feeling
somewhat liberated from appealing to his party hit his stride and in the
final days of the campaign leapfrogged Smith in the polls despite
Salmond endorsing Smith.
Second Round
Clarke 51.2
Smith 48.8
(Note: Smith's loss was planned. If he had won he would have been up for
re-election in 1994. Considering in this time line the first round is in
April and the second in May should he progress to the second round in
May 1994. Well we know what happened
Unfortunately I don't think I
should take liberties when it comes to life and death.)