British Presidential Election Timeline 1970-

[afleitch]

At some point in time the UK adopts a presidential system similar to that of France, with a two round election. It starts off close to the real 1970 but diverges as it progresses. I hope to have 1970 and 1974 up soon (I'm having a race every 4 years rather than 5 or 7) I also plan on making some television graphics from this little alternative world.

Here, for a taster is what was seen on TV screens on the nailbiting 1982 first round election at 10.00pm...



You'll find out why Jim Callaghan is still gracing the political scene later

[Hash]

Very good. Interesting subject, I can't wait for any more updates!

[afleitch]

The 1970 election should have been a straightforward affair. Each of the three main party leaders stood with various others, including Scottish and Welsh nationalists and the National Front all failing to gain the necessary number of endorsements. Early polls showed that Wilson and Heath as expected would progress to the second round, with the lead in the second round changing weekly. But one week before the close of nominations, Enoch Powell disgruntled at the adoption of the Presidential system and the means of the former monarchs abdication entered the race. Powell’s entry into the race saw polls showing him several points ahead of Thorpe. He also began to creep closer and closer to a deflated Heath with 3 polls in the final weeks showing the race between Heath and Powell as neck and neck. Harold Wilson was able to make the most of the situation; his own position at the start of the campaign was weak but he was able to maintain a position in the mid-30’s in the final weeks.

The exit polled showed the top three candidates within the margin of error. Wilson was polling well in the early returns, as did Powell who came second in many of the urban areas and topped the poll in swathes of the Black Country. Powell held the second place spot until rural returns came through.

1970
Harold Wilson 31.2%
Edward Heath 27.3%
Enoch Powell 26.9%
Jeremy Thorpe 14.6%

It wasn’t until the next morning it was clear that Heath had scraped through with a 0.4% lead. Late returns had strengthened his lead over Powell and  Powell conceded.

The two week long campaign began with Wilson holding a lead of between 2 and 4%. However Powells crafted ‘endorsement’ of Wilson saw his lead sink and vanish despite Wilson appearing furiously during the debate to denounce Enoch Powell’s endorsement. Election night was close.

Round 2:
Heath 50.98%
Wilson 49.02%

1974 was a bad year for the President; his authority was dented his administration rocked by crises and a ‘revolving door’ premiership with 3 PM’s in 1973 alone. Yet once again he ran, as did Wilson, Powell and Thorpe all unopposed in their respective parties. George Reid of the SNP secured a place on the ballot and received endorsement from Plaid Cymru. Also on the ballot was the Rev. Ian Paisley who campaigned in Scotland as well as Northern Ireland. Wilson’s lead in the polls appeared to be insubmountable.

1974:

Wilson: 35.9%
Heath: 22.8%
Thorpe: 18.6%
Powell: 17.9%
Reid: 3.1%
Paisley: 1.7%

Round 2:

Wilson 56.7%
Heath 43.4%

[afleitch]

And since I forgot...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cool
I can make some maps for this if you want.

Reminds me of something I wrote, but never finished, about a year ago; a timeline based on the idea (which, like all such ideas, is absurd) that after the War, Britain became a Republic (fitting in with the general absurdity, the entire Royal Family, except for a certain former King with pro-Nazi leanings, was killed during the War) aquired a multi-party (as opposed to the two-and-a-half system we have in reality) system.
Sadly, it fell victim to my astonishing ability to lose files... I'll post it if I ever find it.

[Harry Hayfield]

I think I can guess 1997, Blair wins on the first round!

[afleitch]

Cool
I can make some maps for this if you want.

Reminds me of something I wrote, but never finished, about a year ago; a timeline based on the idea (which, like all such ideas, is absurd) that after the War, Britain became a Republic (fitting in with the general absurdity, the entire Royal Family, except for a certain former King with pro-Nazi leanings, was killed during the War) aquired a multi-party (as opposed to the two-and-a-half system we have in reality) system.
Sadly, it fell victim to my astonishing ability to lose files... I'll post it if I ever find it.

Thanks

I've decided to have the parliament follow 'reality', Tories in power in 79-97 to give it some grounding. I've already written 1978-1990 and in relation to the 1982 graphic the early 80's are pretty busy Parties nominate their candidates in the autumn conference the year before the election which is held between April and May and at the start the usual subjects get the nod, but things change as personality becomes more important which is why George Younger pops up eventually!

[afleitch]

I think I can guess 1997, Blair wins on the first round!

Not quite There are two races in 94 and 98 and who knows who gets nominated. Through in 1990 I had to let the person I wanted to win to loose for certain reasons. See if you can guess.

[afleitch]

In 1977, President Wilson, due to private health concerns, chose not to stand or to accept his parties nomination for President. Eager to retain the Presidency, the Labour Party held its first presidential ballot. James Callaghan, Denis Healey and Michael Foot sought the nomination. At the autumn conference the race was a close call between Callaghan and Healey, with Callaghan squeaking a victory. He was the overwhelming choice amongst the public for the Labour candidacy. For the Conservatives, William Whitelaw and Margaret Thatcher were the only two candidates in what the party hoped was a ‘clean race’. While Thatcher had strong support, her style was distinctly lacking and was deemed more suitable for that of a Prime Minster rather than a President and so Whitelaw received the nomination. Jeremy Thorpe withdrew his candidacy for then unknown reasons and in an uncontested vote two weeks before the close of nominations, David Steel was selected to run. Enoch Powell ran yet again, as did George Reid.

The race itself was surprisingly gentle. Both Callaghan and Whitelaw publicly respected each other and both parties ran a clean campaign. Polls were stable with Callaghan and Whitelaw exchanging narrow leads more than they exchanged blows on the campaign field. However for the electorate who wanted more ‘meat’ David Steel was a dark horse and his support topped 20% performing very well in the presidential debate. However with both Callaghan and Whitelaw holding strong in the 30’s the result was never in doubt.

1978:
Whitelaw 28.9%
Callaghan 28.1%
Steel 22.3%
Powell 15.1%
Reid 2.9%
Paisley 2.7%

During the final round campaign, most polls showed a 50-50 statistical tie with neither candidate holding a lead. As a result, the close campaign pushed turnout up 5% on the previous round. Callaghans lead at 3am was 0.7% and dwindling. By 7 in the morning as the final few mainland areas and recounts trickled through his lead was 0.4%. However Whitelaw could not make up the 0.1% needed to win. A nationwide recount was called for. Keith Joseph declared that ‘Small mistakes in each county can add up to a deficit nationwide.’ When pressed on the issue of a nationwide recount Whitelaw replied cryptically ‘It’s not how we do things’ and conceded that afternoon.

Round 2:
Callaghan 50.1%
Whitelaw 49.9%

1982

Callaghan, as a President and a person was more liked than his early administration. Labour were thrown out of power in the poorly mistimed 1979 legislative elections and Callaghan was forced to work with a Conservative Prime Minister. At the 1981 conference, Callaghan was openly challenged by Tony Benn for the nomination; ‘I will stand against, not stand with the Tories in Westminster.’ Callaghan responded; ‘That is not the role of the President and you should know that. A President has to work with his sternest opponents as well as his closest allies.’ While unsuccessful Benn pressed on and announced he would run as an independent Socialist candidate. The breakaway SDP announced that Roy Jenkins would stand, but despite pressure David Steel refused to withdraw from any possible race. The Conservatives had a divisive nomination race; the party was concentrated on the legislative branch and the ‘big names’ stayed away from the race. It was George Younger who was nominated despite calls for Whitelaw to run once again.

The campaign was fierce. The polls showed that 4 candidates were within the margin of error to win. Benn attacked Callaghan ferociously. Younger looked in above his head, preferring a quiet campaign but hoped to break from the pack. One week before polling day, the Argentine government made moves towards the Falklands and Callaghan was forced into action. With the Conservatives pushing for a military response in parliament (which rubbed off a little on Younger), Jenkins lent his support while Benn stepped up against any action other than a diplomatic response. In the end Callaghan also supported diplomacy and flew to New York for a special UN council during the final stages of the campaign.

The Exit poll showed that Benn had fallen short of making the top 3, particularly when the early returns came though. Younger and Callaghan were tied.

BBC Exit Poll: Jenkins 21%, Callaghan 20%, Younger 20%, Benn 18% TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ITN Exit Poll: Jenkins 20%, Younger 20%, Callaghan 19%, Benn 18.5% TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Recount after recount saw the election drag on the following morning. Benn had conceded after midnight, and Jenkins began to pull ahead, being declared by the BBC as progressing to the second round at 2.30am. Callaghan held a slim lead over Younger that vanished as the rural late returns came though. There was still only 0.1% in it and recounts delayed any declaration until 7am. With only a few parts of the country still to declare the BBC called the second placed position for Younger.

Results:

Roy Jenkins (SDP) 20.7%
George Younger (Conservative) 20.3%
James Callaghan (Labour) 20.2%
Tony Benn (Socialist) 18.4%
David Steel (Liberal) 17.9%
Winnifred Ewing (Scottish and Welsh National) 2.5%

Callaghan’s shock elimination (with the Sun newspaper declaring ‘Jims BENN Had’) meant that the final two week campaign was little more than a post-mortem. With the Conservative parliament dealing with the Falklands situation along with a dejected President Callaghan, Labour accused Benn and Ewing for denying Callaghan progression to the next round. Benn announced he would stand again in 1986 if he ‘felt he was needed.’ The polls were volatile in the first few days as the public got awoken from their traditional Lab-Con frame of mind, but Jenkins pulled ahead and maintained his lead.

2nd Round
Jenkins 53.5%
Younger 47.5%

[afleitch]

Some 'screencaps' for 1978. Again sorry for posting them late.

[Michael Z]

Great work, Afleitch. Really interesting idea for a thread - I'm looking forward to seeing more results. Btw, did you make those 'screencaps' yourself?

[Harry Hayfield]

At some point in time the UK adopts a presidential system similar to that of France, with a two round election. It starts off close to the real 1970 but diverges as it progresses. I hope to have 1970 and 1974 up soon (I'm having a race every 4 years rather than 5 or 7) I also plan on making some television graphics from this little alternative world.

Here, for a taster is what was seen on TV screens on the nailbiting 1982 first round election at 10.00pm...



You'll find out why Jim Callaghan is still gracing the political scene later

Would Election 1986 be as follows:

Jenkins (SDP)
Foot (Lab)
Thatcher (Con)

[afleitch]

Great work, Afleitch. Really interesting idea for a thread - I'm looking forward to seeing more results. Btw, did you make those 'screencaps' yourself?

I did And I'll post more soon. I like having a go at some 'retro' presentation. I've got a neon fest come 1986

And Harry 1986 is not what you expect; Thatcher for example never runs for the position- she finds her niche in the Commons. The Conservatives find it difficult to get people nominated who have a 'likeability' factor and Labour are still too left wing in the attitudes of the electorate. Roy Jenkins runs again in 1986, thats for sure.

I'll post 1986 and 1990 later today.

[afleitch]

1986.
Jenkins presidency had been successful by recent standards and had a
working relationship with the ongoing Conservative legislature. His own
party however was in deep decline and a union with the Liberals was on
the cards. However Jenkins was able to distance himself from the
troubles and was easily confirmed as the Alliance candidate. Labour had
pulled itself together but Benn, now outside the party was still pledged
to run. Neil Kinnock's victory in the nomination was a certainty and his
candidacy, on the outside, looked credible, though to one half of the
public there seemed to be little to differentiate himself from
increasingly statist Jenkins, and to the other half of the public he was
nothing more than 'Benn light'. Kinnocks struggle to define himself
ultimately hurt his campaign. The Conservatives had the choice between
Finance Minister Nigel Lawson, recent renegade Michael Heseltine and
Geoffrey Howe. Heseltines victory was uninspiring as the presidency as a
political position was still unpopular within his party. His victory was
expected and his support gathered before his announcement. With Winnie
Ewing standing as the combined Nationalist candidate again (despite
groans from Plaid, they could still not muster the signatures needed for
a run) Jenkins remained abreast of his rivals throughout the campaign
and despite a strong start, Benn's campaign collapsed around him. Kinnock and Heseltine changed places in the polls in the final week until Heseltine broke free.

1986:
Jenkins: 31.4%
Heseltine 29.3%
Kinnock 25.1%
Benn 11.4%
Ewing 2.8%



Once again Tony Benn had caused the failure of the Labour candidate to progress to the second round, though with Jenkin's lower than expected tally it was later presumed that many Benn voters had done so in order to freeze out Kinnock and allow Heseltine through (If placed second Kinnock had promised to run again in 1990)

Round 2:

Jenkins 57.2%
Heseltine 42.8%


1990.
Jenkins close working association with the deeply unpopular Conservative
administration dragged down his own personal ratings but being barred
from a third term and with the Alliance now dissolved, alongside the SDP
he had no preferred successor. Alan Beith and Paddy Ashdown were the two front runners for the new Liberal Democrat nomination which Beith
secured. Labour's nomination battle was somewhat deflated with Robin
Cook, Bryan Gould, Ann Clwyd and John Smith declaring. An emotional
Smith secured the nomination during the conference. As for the
Conservative's, Heseltine pledged to run again, but was beaten in the
final selection by Kenneth Clarke who had failed to secure the
premiership after Thatcher's resignation as Prime Minister in early
1989. The Conservatives had not held the Presidency since 1974 despite
controlling the Commons for most of the period and Clarke was seen as a
popular choice who distanced himself from the failing Conservative
administration. Popular or not, he was intensly disliked by the
eurosceptic right of his own party. Alex Salmond ran under a 'United
National' ticket after Plaid Cymru, again to their dismay marginally
failed to get their candidate on the ballot, but strove to broaden his
appeal outside Scotland and Wales where, by law, he was still on the
ballot.

Smith had a brisk start to the campaign, accusing Clarke of being 'in
bed' with an unpopular benefit to which Norman Tebbit remarked with one
of the most memorable campaign quotes; 'Bed? He's sleeping on the
couch.' Clarke was struggling to maintain unity but also distance from
his party. Alan Beith's campaign was hardly noticed as he languished at
10% throughout the campaign. As the race itself progressed, Smith and
Clarke stayed steady in the 40's in most polls.

1990:

Smith 44.1
Clarke 39.2
Beith 11.3
Salmond 5.4

The second round was heated and the polls were close. Clarke, feeling
somewhat liberated from appealing to his party hit his stride and in the
final days of the campaign leapfrogged Smith in the polls despite
Salmond endorsing Smith.

Second Round

Clarke 51.2
Smith 48.8



(Note: Smith's loss was planned. If he had won he would have been up for
re-election in 1994. Considering in this time line the first round is in
April and the second in May should he progress to the second round in
May 1994. Well we know what happened Unfortunately I don't think I
should take liberties when it comes to life and death.)

[Democratic Hawk]

Good stuff

[afleitch]

I'm going to spoil 1994 for you

[minionofmidas]

Bah. Remove that rotten filth image immediately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's aged a hell of lot hasn't he?

[Harry Hayfield]

I'm going to spoil 1994 for you

Which poses the question, how many does he win? If I was to guess I'd say 1994 (by a landslide), 1998 (landslideish), 2002 (just), 2006 (loses).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I want him beaten in a primary at some point

[afleitch]

Changes to electoral law introduced in time for the 1994 elections made it much easier for candidates to appear on the ballot. This finally allowed Plaid Cymru representation. Kenneth Clarke’s Presidency was, on the whole successful, but his relations with his own party, even after there narrow 1992 victory had stagnated due to Clarke’s support of Maastricht. Neither did the economic downturn in 1992 help Clarke despite a quick economic rebound. Labour’s race was characterised as a battle for the parties soul. Despite being consistently popular, John Smith refused to run again and called for the party to select a ‘modern young and progressive standard bearer.’ In stepped Tony Blair who, called his bluff. No other reformist candidates came through and Blair defeated defeated John Prescott and Robin Cook easily. The Liberal Democrats selected Simon Hughes. The surprise candidacy was that of millionaire James Goldsmith who ran against Clarke on a Eurosceptic platform. Despite high hopes and tacit support from many Conservative figures, Goldsmith was only able to poll in the teens with Simon Hughes running an effective personal campaign and holding onto third place. Blair entered the campaign polling around the 40% mark which began to dip, falling just after the candidates debate. Despite this he continued to lead Clarke by around 5% and led him in polling for the second round.

1994.
Tony Blair 35.3%
Kenneth Clarke 29.6%
Simon Hughes 17.3%
James Goldsmith 15.1%
Alex Salmond 2.4%
Dafydd Wigley 0.3%

Round 2.

Blair 55.3%
Clarke 46.7%

1998 was a high point for the Blair presidency, with Labour capturing control of the Commons 1 year before. But his personal ratings began to take a dive and his relationship with the new Labour PM Gordon Brown was visibly strained. The Conservatives however were not ready for the ideological battles of a drawn out selection process, nor were they ready for a sacrificial defeat. Only two candidates announced; Peter Lilley and William Hague. Hague’s victory ensured that no ‘scupper’ anti-European would announce but his appeal to the electorate was lacking. The Liberal Democrats chose London MP Simon Hughes. Blair’s move towards a settlement in Northern Ireland stirred Rev. Ian Paisley who chose to run on an ‘anti-assembly’ ticket in Northern Ireland. Despite the establishment of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly in 1994 (with elections in 1996) Paisley also ran a campaign to abolish them. Salmond and Wigley ran again defending devolution and demanding more autonomy. A surprise entry into the race came in the form of David Owen, running as an independent. Keen to capitalise on Conservative troubles, he tacked more to the right as the campaign progressed. Owen’s campaign was populist and somewhat vacuous.

Tony Blair – 34.6%
William Hague - 26.1%
David Owen – 16.1%
Simon Hughes – 15.2%
Rev. Ian Paisley – 5.3%
Alex Salmond – 2.2%
Daffyd Wigley – 0.5%


Blair – 55.6%
Hague – 44.4%

[Hash]

"Blair 55.3%
Clarke 46.7%"


Adds up to 102 percent

[Rural Radical]

I want him beaten in a primary at some point

He would have lost the 2006 nomination.

[afleitch]

"Blair 55.3%
Clarke 46.7%"


Adds up to 102 percent

Apologies- that was corrected in the hard copy after I'd posted it here. Just take 1 percentage point off of each.

For the record Blair does not run in 2002 (I'm pretending he puts his ego in the bin and tries not to amend the two term rule) I'll post 2002 tomorrow

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(I'm pretending he puts his ego in the bin

A what-if too far!