If Republicans crack 30% in the Bronx, what happens?

[Tekken_Guy]

What would happen if Republicans suddenly cracked 30% in the Bronx?

[TML]

The last Republican presidential candidate to do this was Ronald Reagan, who did it in both of his presidential runs. We all know how well he performed nationwide...

[bagelman]

Since the 1980s the Bronx has become not only less and less NH white but also less and less black, and is increasingly Hispanic dominated. So this means Republicans are winning lots of Hispanic voters.

Trump 2020's overperformance with Hispanic voters was the tip of the iceberg. Texas and Arizona go right back to Safe R even if the Democrats keep getting bigger and bigger wins in places like Scottsdale and Dallas FTW suburbia. New Mexico is now solidly to the right of Colorado in every way, and may zoom towards Lean R while Colorado remains Safe D. NV is also back to where it was before Reid.

If we assume this is due to a strong R trend (and not due to a big nationwide R win, which could be more likely but also isn't as interesting):

[OSR stands with Israel]

Since the 1980s the Bronx has become not only less and less NH white but also less and less black, and is increasingly Hispanic dominated. So this means Republicans are winning lots of Hispanic voters.

Trump 2020's overperformance with Hispanic voters was the tip of the iceberg. Texas and Arizona go right back to Safe R even if the Democrats keep getting bigger and bigger wins in places like Scottsdale and Dallas FTW suburbia. New Mexico is now solidly to the right of Colorado in every way, and may zoom towards Lean R while Colorado remains Safe D. NV is also back to where it was before Reid.

If we assume this is due to a strong R trend (and not due to a big nationwide R win, which could be more likely but also isn't as interesting):

MN/GA/NE-2 should still be blue here while WI should be lean R imo. NM I think is still a pure tossup given that white liberal suburbanites do make up a large part of the dem base there as well.



Basically, elections come down to who wins 2 of the Big 3 tossups: PA MI NC