NV: Rasmussen: Laxalt (R) opens up 5-point lead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 07:02:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2022 Senate & House Election Polls
  NV: Rasmussen: Laxalt (R) opens up 5-point lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: NV: Rasmussen: Laxalt (R) opens up 5-point lead  (Read 1346 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2022, 02:13:42 PM »

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Rasmussen on 2022-10-17

Summary: D: 43%, R: 48%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Aurelius
Cody
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,170
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.35, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2022, 02:15:08 PM »

Probably R+2 or R+3 after adjusting for Rasmussen's house effect. Still good to see.

I don't "unskew" polls or play games with crosstabs, but I do keep house effects in mind.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2022, 02:15:56 PM »

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2022, 02:16:23 PM »

We havenít really seen any D internals at the state level lately.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2022, 02:16:47 PM »

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs

If that happens, no Federal aid.
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,522


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2022, 02:19:06 PM »

Rasmussen didn't poll Nevada in 2018, as far as I can tell, but FWIW this is close to the last margin Trafalgar had there.
Logged
Aurelius
Cody
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,170
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.35, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2022, 02:21:14 PM »

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs
Nevada, which gets a mere 2% of the Colorado River allocation, and has the most leverage to push for a bigger share in a renegotiation, will not run out of water.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,471
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2022, 02:22:11 PM »

So many Republican polls.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,645
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2022, 04:35:40 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2022, 05:16:08 PM by gracile »



Adam Laxalt (R) 48%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,106
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2022, 06:10:55 PM »

Iowa voting 2 points to the left of Nevada. Wake up folks, it's 2004 again.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2022, 06:22:42 PM »

Lean R.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,166


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2022, 06:41:37 PM »

We havenít really seen any D internals at the state level lately.

It's not like anyone would believe them so why bother?

Also, Rasmussen literally has Trump up by *12* in this same poll in a 2024 rematch. At some point we need to start junking stuff.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,166


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2022, 09:20:43 PM »

This has been labeled an (R) partisan poll on 538, done for "Capital Resource Institute"
Logged
Hollywood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,724
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2022, 12:05:09 AM »

This has been labeled an (R) partisan poll on 538, done for "Capital Resource Institute"

Yeah.  We've seen many Democrat Pollsters using the same methodology as the Rasmussen Poll.  It is a useful poll for Democrats to read if they want to inform themselves about the Republican strategy in Nevada. 
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2022, 11:37:29 AM »

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs
Nevada, which gets a mere 2% of the Colorado River allocation, and has the most leverage to push for a bigger share in a renegotiation, will not run out of water.

But the Republicans in Nevada will end up requiring homeowners to have grass lawns and swimming pools and recreate Tennessee and Georgia in their state.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2022, 01:43:07 PM »

Again, itís not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I donít see how she finds a way out of this one.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,875
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2022, 01:49:35 PM »

Again, itís not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I donít see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2022, 01:52:37 PM »

Again, itís not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I donít see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

I have Nevada Sen as lean R with caution...

Only with caution, because I would have thought 2020 would have been the time for the GOP to break through there as Democratic policies at the time disproportionally impacted the economy there.

But it is not only "hispanics shifting". I still do not think, on the grand scale, that the GOP is doing that historically well with Hispanics. It is hard for me to see Nevada Whites as a whole supporting the Democratic party right now.

But lean R with caution.. considering past known polling biases that could change of course.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,645
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2022, 01:54:15 PM »

LAXALT isn't winning by 5 pts anyways it's more like gonna be small lead either way and this is is a Rassy poll
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2022, 03:49:50 PM »

Again, itís not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I donít see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

Virginia and Colorado were pushed so more heavily by white college educated Millennials displacing/replacing conservative suburban voters at the polls, while Nevada was always more working class white and Hispanic. VA and CO jumped from red to blue states, while NV remained a swing state, even if reliably Democratic since Obama thanks to the machine and other factors.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2022, 04:27:31 PM »

It's Rasmussen. This race will probably stay very close until Election Day.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,847
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2022, 06:25:33 PM »

I see we're back to pretending Rasmussen is a serious polling entity.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,645
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2022, 06:34:45 PM »

Early voting is going on now in NC, GA and NV as we speak the Ds are gonna get a bump in the Early voting no questions asked and Rassy is the only one that has Rs leading in GCB too
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2022, 07:13:57 PM »

Again, itís not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I donít see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

Virginia and Colorado were pushed so more heavily by white college educated Millennials displacing/replacing conservative suburban voters at the polls, while Nevada was always more working class white and Hispanic. VA and CO jumped from red to blue states, while NV remained a swing state, even if reliably Democratic since Obama thanks to the machine and other factors.

VA is not exactly a "bloo state" but it leans Dem. Do not forget that Virginia is a state I like to call a blue state with many red state demographics and traits.

The Colorado GOP is probably hopeless right now until the Colorado find their own version of Terry mcauliffe. Though I think the margin in 2024 is Biden +7 to 10 and not 14 lol.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2022, 07:18:08 PM »

Again, itís not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I donít see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

Virginia and Colorado were pushed so more heavily by white college educated Millennials displacing/replacing conservative suburban voters at the polls, while Nevada was always more working class white and Hispanic. VA and CO jumped from red to blue states, while NV remained a swing state, even if reliably Democratic since Obama thanks to the machine and other factors.

VA is not exactly a "bloo state" but it leans Dem. Do not forget that Virginia is a state I like to call a blue state with many red state demographics and traits.

The Colorado GOP is probably hopeless right now until the Colorado find their own version of Terry mcauliffe. Though I think the margin in 2024 is Biden +7 to 10 and not 14 lol.

I would say VA is more likely Dem then leans Dem, especially if Trump is the nominee.

There are many winnable states that come before VA at this point. I think even New Mexico might be easier to flip then VA for President simply based on its demographics.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 13 queries.