NV: Rasmussen: Laxalt (R) opens up 5-point lead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Rasmussen on 2022-10-17

Summary: D: 43%, R: 48%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Aurelius]

Probably R+2 or R+3 after adjusting for Rasmussen's house effect. Still good to see.

I don't "unskew" polls or play games with crosstabs, but I do keep house effects in mind.

[jamestroll]

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs

[Person Man]

We haven’t really seen any D internals at the state level lately.

[Person Man]

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs

If that happens, no Federal aid.

[soundchaser]

Rasmussen didn't poll Nevada in 2018, as far as I can tell, but FWIW this is close to the last margin Trafalgar had there.

[Aurelius]

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs

Nevada, which gets a mere 2% of the Colorado River allocation, and has the most leverage to push for a bigger share in a renegotiation, will not run out of water.

[Eraserhead]

So many Republican polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1583570294761230336

Adam Laxalt (R) 48%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%

[Ferguson97]

Iowa voting 2 points to the left of Nevada. Wake up folks, it's 2004 again.

[Horus]

Lean R.

[wbrocks67]

We haven’t really seen any D internals at the state level lately.

It's not like anyone would believe them so why bother?

Also, Rasmussen literally has Trump up by *12* in this same poll in a 2024 rematch. At some point we need to start junking stuff.

[wbrocks67]

This has been labeled an (R) partisan poll on 538, done for "Capital Resource Institute"

[Hollywood]

This has been labeled an (R) partisan poll on 538, done for "Capital Resource Institute"

Yeah.  We've seen many Democrat Pollsters using the same methodology as the Rasmussen Poll.  It is a useful poll for Democrats to read if they want to inform themselves about the Republican strategy in Nevada. 

[jamestroll]

Enjoying running out of water Nevada. You rethugs

Nevada, which gets a mere 2% of the Colorado River allocation, and has the most leverage to push for a bigger share in a renegotiation, will not run out of water.

But the Republicans in Nevada will end up requiring homeowners to have grass lawns and swimming pools and recreate Tennessee and Georgia in their state.

[MT Treasurer]

Again, it’s not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I don’t see how she finds a way out of this one.

[President Johnson]

Again, it’s not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I don’t see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

[jamestroll]

Again, it’s not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I don’t see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

I have Nevada Sen as lean R with caution...

Only with caution, because I would have thought 2020 would have been the time for the GOP to break through there as Democratic policies at the time disproportionally impacted the economy there.

But it is not only "hispanics shifting". I still do not think, on the grand scale, that the GOP is doing that historically well with Hispanics. It is hard for me to see Nevada Whites as a whole supporting the Democratic party right now.

But lean R with caution.. considering past known polling biases that could change of course.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LAXALT isn't winning by 5 pts anyways it's more like gonna be small lead either way and this is is a Rassy poll

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Again, it’s not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I don’t see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

Virginia and Colorado were pushed so more heavily by white college educated Millennials displacing/replacing conservative suburban voters at the polls, while Nevada was always more working class white and Hispanic. VA and CO jumped from red to blue states, while NV remained a swing state, even if reliably Democratic since Obama thanks to the machine and other factors.

[Figueira]

It's Rasmussen. This race will probably stay very close until Election Day.

[Mr. Illini]

I see we're back to pretending Rasmussen is a serious polling entity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early voting is going on now in NC, GA and NV as we speak the Ds are gonna get a bump in the Early voting no questions asked and Rassy is the only one that has Rs leading in GCB too

[jamestroll]

Again, it’s not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I don’t see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

Virginia and Colorado were pushed so more heavily by white college educated Millennials displacing/replacing conservative suburban voters at the polls, while Nevada was always more working class white and Hispanic. VA and CO jumped from red to blue states, while NV remained a swing state, even if reliably Democratic since Obama thanks to the machine and other factors.

VA is not exactly a "bloo state" but it leans Dem. Do not forget that Virginia is a state I like to call a blue state with many red state demographics and traits.

The Colorado GOP is probably hopeless right now until the Colorado find their own version of Terry mcauliffe. Though I think the margin in 2024 is Biden +7 to 10 and not 14 lol.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Again, it’s not so much the margin but the D vote share that stands out here: 43%.

Number of polls of this race in which Cortez Masto's % has been ≥ 50%: 1 (and that was a June poll conducted by a Democratic-affiliated pollster and sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project). Even Mandela Barnes had 2, none of them D-affiliated ones.

In most surveys, Cortez Masto's vote share has been in the 42%-45% range, usually well below other D incumbents.

I think people are underestimating how much the ground has shifted beneath Democrats in this state. Never say never, but I don’t see how she finds a way out of this one.

How do you explain that grpund shifting? Reid's turnout-machine having disappeared or a realignment among Hispanic voters? Not all too long ago (pre-Obama), Nevada was considered a Republican state. During the Obama era I actually thought it would go the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

But yeah, I think CCM is going to lose at this point. Unless Fetterman can pull it off, Democratic chances to keep the senate look bleak.

Virginia and Colorado were pushed so more heavily by white college educated Millennials displacing/replacing conservative suburban voters at the polls, while Nevada was always more working class white and Hispanic. VA and CO jumped from red to blue states, while NV remained a swing state, even if reliably Democratic since Obama thanks to the machine and other factors.

VA is not exactly a "bloo state" but it leans Dem. Do not forget that Virginia is a state I like to call a blue state with many red state demographics and traits.

The Colorado GOP is probably hopeless right now until the Colorado find their own version of Terry mcauliffe. Though I think the margin in 2024 is Biden +7 to 10 and not 14 lol.

I would say VA is more likely Dem then leans Dem, especially if Trump is the nominee.

There are many winnable states that come before VA at this point. I think even New Mexico might be easier to flip then VA for President simply based on its demographics.