NY (Survey USA) - Biden +5

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1583209510436360194?s=20&t=5osCEJr...

[TML]

This poll clearly contradicts the fundamentals of this state, but we'll have to see if more polls with either Republican leads or narrow Democratic leads crop up.

[TDAS04]

lol

[Orwell]

This poll clearly contradicts the fundamentals of this state, but we'll have to see if more polls with either Republican leads or narrow Democratic leads crop up.

Not even that, this poll kinda makes sense if you just look at it like 100% of undecideds are going to Biden.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

How is Biden up 2 in NC yet only 5 in NY?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I like how they specified "Trump Sr.".

"Wait! Which Trump are we talking about here?!"

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden winning NY by 5 pts. and Trump winning OK by 12 pts. Let that sink in for a moment.

The polling industry is done. Just give it a rest, dude.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden winning NY by 5 pts. and Trump winning OK by 12 pts. Let that sink in for a moment.

The polling industry is done. Just give it a rest, dude.

Your Queen HOCHUL may lose I don't have her losing on my prediction but have deendorsed her Housing is a crisis in Chi, NY and Cali Newsom is only winning because he is running against a nobody

Bill DeBasio would be winning by +11

[Figueira]

And people still believe these gubernatorial polls.

The funny thing is, a Republican winning NY-Gov wouldn't be that weird, but these polls are more of an argument against that happening than anything else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And people still believe these gubernatorial polls.

The funny thing is, a Republican winning NY-Gov wouldn't be that weird, but these polls are more of an argument against that happening than anything else.

I am not saying she will lose she is just as likely to lose as Vance is in OH but if she lose Heads will be rolling including Harris at the WH and that may be a Good thing because Val DEMINGS running for Veep or Sen in 24 in much better than Harris but don't write off a red or blue wave it's a neutral cycle but anything can happen when Gas prices have jumped again they're not 3.99 anymore they are back to 5.00


Sir Muhammad and President Johnson went out on a limb to endorse Queen HOCHUL and Harris and they both aren't better than Val DEMINGS or Bill DeBasio and Bill DeBasio would be having zero problem with Zeldin

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This poll is not really that crazy. Trump at 37% in New York is reasonable.

The reason why it is close, is because so many people are abstaining from voting for Biden, and many of those are probably going to vote Democratic obviously either down ballot or in the end, especially against Trump.

What this does illustrate, is that the administration is very unpopular with a large segment of the coalition that elected it and for some reason there is a large number of these people living in New York.

Look at the recent Florida poll numbers, a state which shares many demographics with New York.

Is the headline on November 9th going to be "Massive Hispanic Realignment"? That's what these numbers would tend to indicate, but we will have to see. Then even more so see if Republicans manage to subsequently piss it away if it is what happens in two weeks.

[oldtimer]

lol

lol  ... the poll may not be so off, given the results of the governor's race

Hochul: 53%
Zeldin: 47%

Yeah, but that means Trump must be doing really badly in swing states given the national average is a tie.

[DaleCooper]

This is the 2024 equivalent of all the crap showing Trump narrowly leading in Indiana, Kansas, Montana, etc.

[Figueira]

This might be an accurate poll of 2022 New York voters and their current feelings about 2024, but that doesn't make it an accurate indicator of what will happen in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

This might be an accurate poll of 2022 New York voters and their current feelings about 2024, but that doesn't make it an accurate indicator of what will happen in 2024.

I do think something like Biden +15 in NY (even while winning the EC) is within the realm of possibility though. 

[kwabbit]

This is the 2024 equivalent of all the crap showing Trump narrowly leading in Indiana, Kansas, Montana, etc.

Of course there's no way that Biden only wins by 5 points, but the poll nailed Hochul's margin. NY is likely to trend right in 2024. from 2021 and 2022, I think the NY GOP has been to activate something in Long Island. Biden may win by 15 points more than the national margin if some of the gains are consolidated.

[DaleCooper]

This is the 2024 equivalent of all the crap showing Trump narrowly leading in Indiana, Kansas, Montana, etc.

Of course there's no way that Biden only wins by 5 points, but the poll nailed Hochul's margin. NY is likely to trend right in 2024. from 2021 and 2022, I think the NY GOP has been to activate something in Long Island. Biden may win by 15 points more than the national margin if some of the gains are consolidated.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[TodayJunior]

So does Colorado vote to the left of Illinois, New Jersey, AND New York (state)!?
I can see it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd say something like Bush 2004 is possible with a Bluer upstate and a Redder Bronx/Brooklyn/Queens etc

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

Trump did trend well in NYC in 2020.  Plus, those New Yorkers probably can't help but feel some love for their hometown boy.  I can believe it!  Big margins don't last forever.  Arkansas was 67% for Jimmy in 1976. 

[Fusternino]

The Trump 2020 NYC numbers, like his numbers in Miami-Dade/RGV, were just a reversion to Bush 2004 numbers . . .