PA: Insider Advantage: Tie

[MT Treasurer]

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. [sic] Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

Treat these crosstabs with caution, but I’ve long thought that the potential for an Oz overperformance in the Delaware Valley is very underrated. I think the county map/margins in PA-SEN will be the most atypical of any competitive Senate race this cycle.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think Oz will have issues breaking through in ChesCo and Delco (especially the latter), but it wouldn't shock me if he improved on Trump's margins there.

I agree on DelCo, but I think the Fetterman camp is seriously underestimating the potential for a D<80% result in Philadelphia, and in a close race that could mean game over for them. I think Fetterman could make it up in other parts of the state in a more D-friendly environment, but it will be much harder this year.