AZ GOV Trafalgar Lake +3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1582700245317988352?s=20&t=UDhjbLki125ZKY3tlmaqhA

Lake 49
HOBBS 46

[Person Man]

If Republican internals have this as Lean R and the senate race as Tilt D, its probably tilt R and Lean D.

[Woody]

If Republican internals have this as Lean R and the senate race as Tilt D, its probably tilt R and Lean D.

Trafalgar isn't a R internal.

[Boobs]

Last traffy poll in mid September had Lake up 50-46, so this is basically stagnant.

[wbrocks67]

Last traffy poll in mid September had Lake up 50-46, so this is basically stagnant.

From Lake +4.4 to Lake +2.8 - Hobbsmentum!

Last time:
Lake 50.0%
Hobbs 45.6%

This time:
Lake 49.2%
Hobbs 46.4%

[wbrocks67]

If Republican internals have this as Lean R and the senate race as Tilt D, its probably tilt R and Lean D.

Trafalgar isn't a R internal.

This was for The Daily Wire, so it might as well be lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hobbs should of debated Lake every other D has debated their opponents

[Sir Mohamed]

I've seen enough, moving this from Tossup to Lean R.

Seems like there's been a swing towards Lake lately, which is kind of depressing. I don't think the race will be decided by a huge margin, but Lake is for sure favored.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen enough, moving this from Tossup to Lean R.

Seems like there's been a swing towards Lake lately, which is kind of depressing. I don't think the race will be decided by a huge margin, but Lake is for sure favored.

This is a swing towards Hobbs since their last poll lol

[Sir Mohamed]

I've seen enough, moving this from Tossup to Lean R.

Seems like there's been a swing towards Lake lately, which is kind of depressing. I don't think the race will be decided by a huge margin, but Lake is for sure favored.

This is a swing towards Hobbs since their last poll lol

Lake has been leading all recent polls though. I think she's more likely to win at this point; Hobbs also seems to run an underwhelming campaign. Just hope it won't sink Kelly as well.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen enough, moving this from Tossup to Lean R.

Seems like there's been a swing towards Lake lately, which is kind of depressing. I don't think the race will be decided by a huge margin, but Lake is for sure favored.

This is a swing towards Hobbs since their last poll lol

Lake has been leading all recent polls though. I think she's more likely to win at this point; Hobbs also seems to run an underwhelming campaign. Just hope it won't sink Kelly as well.

There was literally just a Hobbs poll this week that her leading.

[Calthrina950]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

[Sir Mohamed]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

Polls tend to overestimate 3rd party support though. I'd be surprised if Victor gets more than 2% of the vote.

[Calthrina950]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

Polls tend to overestimate 3rd party support though. I'd be surprised if Victor gets more than 2% of the vote.

Are you saying then, that there is a substantial number of Lake-Kelly voters in Arizona? Or that Masters is closer to Lake than what recent polls have shown? In pretty much every recent poll I've seen, Hobbs and Kelly are garnering about the same level of support, in terms of percentage.

[Sir Mohamed]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

Polls tend to overestimate 3rd party support though. I'd be surprised if Victor gets more than 2% of the vote.

Are you saying then, that there is a substantial number of Lake-Kelly voters in Arizona? Or that Masters is closer to Lake than what recent polls have shown? In pretty much every recent poll I've seen, Hobbs and Kelly are garnering about the same level of support, in terms of percentage.

There seems to be an amount of Lake-Kelly voters. I don't really understand it, but it looks like that's the case.

[Calthrina950]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

Polls tend to overestimate 3rd party support though. I'd be surprised if Victor gets more than 2% of the vote.

Are you saying then, that there is a substantial number of Lake-Kelly voters in Arizona? Or that Masters is closer to Lake than what recent polls have shown? In pretty much every recent poll I've seen, Hobbs and Kelly are garnering about the same level of support, in terms of percentage.

There seems to be an amount of Lake-Kelly voters. I don't really understand it, but it looks like that's the case.

I do. As I've said before, Lake-Kelly voters are voting for them on the basis of their background and personality. Lake is a longtime local news anchor who they trust, and Kelly is a former astronaut who is married to Gabby Giffords.

[Real Texan Politics]

The Daily Wire should be banned from polling until we figure out what the hell is going on.
https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1582745453405163520?s=20&t=eXeFEq5-1UWW...

[politicallefty]

I'm pretty sure Lake is going to win, unless something big happens in the next week or two. Hobbs is running an awful campaign and Lake is doing everything she can do to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm pretty sure Lake is going to win, unless something big happens in the next week or two. Hobbs is running an awful campaign and Lake is doing everything she can do to win.

Don't underestimate Hobbs she has been leading in all non Trafalgar polls, just like everyone underestimate Abrams and she is ahead in one poll