NY Gov - Quinnipiac - Hochul +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IT'S HAPPENING BOYS

Now we just need a shock Newsom +6 poll to complete the effect.

Likely D.

You doubt the blk and Brown and non Evangelical female vote, and people are getting a 20K Student Loan Discharge

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I guess time to move this to Likely D. Given the other +6 poll

I must say I still find these numbers a little hard to believe. To be honest I though that a statewide GOP win in NY would require a large personal sandal in the DEM candidate.  

[Agafin]

It seems like the issue of crime is really starting to crush democrats even in deep blue states. When progressive DAs started being recalled in sapphire blue cities, one could have assumed that this was just a case of dems replacing their most woke representatives with more moderate ones. But at this point it seems clear that some democrats are seriously starting to toy with the idea of voting republican over it. It makes sense though, it's easy to ignore the far left on most issues if you still mostly agree with the rest of the democratic plateform. But what is much more difficult to forget is an Asian who sees his grandma's head being bashed in by a violent criminal who was let free after paying a $50 cash bail thanks to ideologies like "defund the police", "abolish prisons" etc advocated by people like he squad.

[Aurelius]

I guess time to move this to Likely D. Given the other +6 poll

I must say I still find these numbers a little hard to believe. To be honest I though that a statewide GOP win in NY would require a large personal sandal in the DEM candidate.  

Yeah. It's easy for me to believe that Zeldin is a higher quality candidate than usual, and Hochul weaker than usual due to her lack of ties with NYC and her association with repressive covid policy. Between that and a good R year I could easily see Hochul winning with 56 or 57. Less than that is hard for me to believe, but after all these polls showing a 4-6 point lead I have to move it to Likely D.

[RI]

Here's hoping for a red NY and a blue OK. Elasticity is back on the menu, boys!

[wbrocks67]

I guess time to move this to Likely D. Given the other +6 poll

I must say I still find these numbers a little hard to believe. To be honest I though that a statewide GOP win in NY would require a large personal sandal in the DEM candidate.  

Yeah. It's easy for me to believe that Zeldin is a higher quality candidate than usual, and Hochul weaker than usual due to her lack of ties with NYC and her association with repressive covid policy. Between that and a good R year I could easily see Hochul winning with 56 or 57. Less than that is hard for me to believe, but after all these polls showing a 4-6 point lead I have to move it to Likely D.

Is he though? Zeldin was a 2020 election denier, supported overturning the election, and is vehemently pro-life. In New York of all places, that doesn't scream great candidate. Unless voters seemingly do not know these things about him.

Also, isn't crime in NYC up for debate these days on whether it's even up vs. down?

[wbrocks67]

Let's be honest, nobody know what's going on this year so nobody knows how to really project turnout. It's all over the place.

https://twitter.com/therealjsolo/status/1582405583969611776

[Cyrusman]

If this is correct will all of you take back all the awful things you have said about Trafalgar? Just funny to me how Quinnipiac posting this actually makes some think it will be close, but when its Trafalgar its nothing but partisan junk. They saw this first before anyone.

[wbrocks67]

If this is correct will all of you take back all the awful things you have said about Trafalgar? Just funny to me how Quinnipiac posting this actually makes some think it will be close, but when its Trafalgar its nothing but partisan junk. They saw this first before anyone.

Trafalgar also found Letitia James losing the AG race, which has ... not borne out in any polls. They also found Peter Welch up by 4 in VT, Patty Murray up by 2, and Shapiro up by 2 at the same time everyone else had him +10 (and then magically they had +10 in their last poll) And of course had a problem polling very blue states, like last year's CA recall debacle. 

[wbrocks67]

This also has Biden's approval at -3, while Siena found +8.

New York was +23 in 2020, about 17% to the left of the nation. His average is about -9 right now, so you'd expect it to be about... +8 lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

But NY is mostly white, isn't it? I wouldn't expect non response bias to slant polls towards Rs in this state vs say NM or NV

[wbrocks67]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

But NY is mostly white, isn't it? I wouldn't expect non response bias to slant polls towards Rs in this state vs say NM or NV

White share in NY was 60% in 2020, with Biden and Trump being about tied. Possible that White Trump voters are more eager to answer calls than White Biden/liberal voters. At least that's what I would surmize here

[republican1993]

I'll be voting for Zeldin.. based in Manhattan

[President Johnson]

Quinnipiac, go home, you're drunk.

[soundchaser]

I'll be voting for Zeldin.. based in Manhattan

Would never have guessed based on your username.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

If this is correct will all of you take back all the awful things you have said about Trafalgar? Just funny to me how Quinnipiac posting this actually makes some think it will be close, but when its Trafalgar its nothing but partisan junk. They saw this first before anyone.

I don't understand the Trafalgar hate. They are useful in the rustbelt and midwest. FiveThirtyEight gave them an A- rating for a reason. Their model just doesn't work very well in states where there aren't a bunch of working class voters that hate responding to polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If this is correct will all of you take back all the awful things you have said about Trafalgar? Just funny to me how Quinnipiac posting this actually makes some think it will be close, but when its Trafalgar its nothing but partisan junk. They saw this first before anyone.

Trafalgar is partisan junk.  This one looks like ordinary junk.

[Pollster]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

Thanks for the update. In the world where it is non-response bias, why do you think New York in particular is having an issue with it in terms of GOP actually answering more, compared to it usually being the other way around in most states?

Your guess is as good as mine - bizarre phenomenon indeed.

[Pollster]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

But NY is mostly white, isn't it? I wouldn't expect non response bias to slant polls towards Rs in this state vs say NM or NV

I honestly couldn't tell you - this is one I don't have a working theory on.

[wbrocks67]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

Thanks for the update. In the world where it is non-response bias, why do you think New York in particular is having an issue with it in terms of GOP actually answering more, compared to it usually being the other way around in most states?

Your guess is as good as mine - bizarre phenomenon indeed.

Despite the NRB, do you have any other interesting takeaways from the House districts you've polled?

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm basing this entirely on cultural stereotypes, since we don't have much else to go on, but I could see NYC being one place where the "trust" gap that feeds non-response bias is reversed, based on the ethnic groups aligned with each party there. I'm not sure it would account for a full reversal of some of the ridiculous polling error we see in the Midwest, but it would at least neutralize it.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

QPac has been sh**t on all year. But the moment they show an underwhelming Dem poll, folks suddenly start taking them at face value.

[free my dawg]

As an unbiased voice, this poll is dogsh*t.

[Calthrina950]

I find it interesting how people seriously doubt that Zeldin could be even remotely competitive in New York, but they have fewer or no doubts that Hofmeister could be competitive in Oklahoma, which is as Republican as New York is Democratic.

[Green Line]

Democrats will dig up enough votes in the month-long count here to save krazy Kathy.