MN-02 (KSTP/SUSA): Craig 46 - Kistner 45

[Brittain33]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

If a Democrat in a super white Midwestern district is only ahead by 1, yes they are losing.

How do you reconcile that with NE-1 and MN-1 specials this year? In MN-1, literally an adjacent district, the Dem overperformed a poll by literally the same polling company.

[Mr.Phips]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

If a Democrat in a super white Midwestern district is only ahead by 1, yes they are losing.

How do you reconcile that with NE-1 and MN-1 specials this year? In MN-1, literally an adjacent district, the Dem overperformed a poll by literally the same polling company.

Those were special elections with different turnout patterns.

[Brittain33]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

If a Democrat in a super white Midwestern district is only ahead by 1, yes they are losing.

How do you reconcile that with NE-1 and MN-1 specials this year? In MN-1, literally an adjacent district, the Dem overperformed a poll by literally the same polling company.

Those were special elections with different turnout patterns.

Ok, fair enough, but they happened and provide evidence of polling efficacy this year, vs. vibes

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

The odd thing is that very specifically SUSA in Minnesota -- and not Minnesota polling generally, or even SUSA in other states -- has a history of overestimating Republicans.

Again, with educational polarization increasing, I'm going to take an educated guess that even pollsters that were accurate/previously overestimated Republicans will now likely overestimate democrats

[wbrocks67]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

The odd thing is that very specifically SUSA in Minnesota -- and not Minnesota polling generally, or even SUSA in other states -- has a history of overestimating Republicans.

Again, with educational polarization increasing, I'm going to take an educated guess that even pollsters that were accurate/previously overestimated Republicans will now likely overestimate democrats

But in an educated district like this, why would Democrats come out in the special but not here? If anything, if you assume GOP will come out when they didn't in August, then that brings you to equilibrium if anything.

[Vosem]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

The odd thing is that very specifically SUSA in Minnesota -- and not Minnesota polling generally, or even SUSA in other states -- has a history of overestimating Republicans.

Again, with educational polarization increasing, I'm going to take an educated guess that even pollsters that were accurate/previously overestimated Republicans will now likely overestimate democrats

But in an educated district like this, why would Democrats come out in the special but not here? If anything, if you assume GOP will come out when they didn't in August, then that brings you to equilibrium if anything.

The special was in a different district, and the Democratic campaign there outspent the Republican one substantially; there was also an extremely negative Republican primary the same day that might've depressed the vote. Plenty of reasons to think that it didn't really matter.

(The interesting thing about the specials is that all of them, except NY-18, have ready-made excuses for the GOP. The thing is that there really isn't one for NY-18, and the string of four consecutive quite bad performances is pretty eyebrow-raising.)

[wbrocks67]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

The odd thing is that very specifically SUSA in Minnesota -- and not Minnesota polling generally, or even SUSA in other states -- has a history of overestimating Republicans.

Again, with educational polarization increasing, I'm going to take an educated guess that even pollsters that were accurate/previously overestimated Republicans will now likely overestimate democrats

But in an educated district like this, why would Democrats come out in the special but not here? If anything, if you assume GOP will come out when they didn't in August, then that brings you to equilibrium if anything.

The special was in a different district, and the Democratic campaign there outspent the Republican one substantially; there was also an extremely negative Republican primary the same day that might've depressed the vote. Plenty of reasons to think that it didn't really matter.

(The interesting thing about the specials is that all of them, except NY-18, have ready-made excuses for the GOP. The thing is that there really isn't one for NY-18, and the string of four consecutive quite bad performances is pretty eyebrow-raising.)

I thought Finstead severely outspent Ettinger?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

The sooner Dems realize they are playing a game of “heads we lose, tails they win” the better.

As opposed to the GOP's "heads we win, tails we coup"