MN-02 (KSTP/SUSA): Craig 46 - Kistner 45

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/bloisolson/status/1582122650033217536

[BenjiG98]

I imagine this poll was fielded after Overby died? Why would people vote for a dead person? Are they aware?

[Minnesota Mike]

I imagine this poll was fielded after Overby died? Why would people vote for a dead person? Are they aware?

Minnesotans are weird.

My guess is most people are not aware. The dead pot party guy in the last MN-02 election got 6% (yes it's happened twice).

[Devils30]

Craig only won by 2 in 2020 here, this is not really a bad poll for her. And a dead marijuana party candidate can produce additional votes for her. Dems with their next trifecta need to get these people off the ballot.

And survey USA underestimated Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

Craig leading is a good sign for Democrats. If she’s not doing much worse than 2020 then it’s probably an environment similar to 2020 nationwide.

[Devils30]

Craig leading is a good sign for Democrats. If she’s not doing much worse than 2020 then it’s probably an environment similar to 2020 nationwide.

Dems might lose less ground in places like Dakota county compared to 2020 than other places. I really wish NYT Siena did all of the CD polls like 2018 instead of these once a month generic ballot stuff.

[wbrocks67]

Craig leading is a good sign for Democrats. If she’s not doing much worse than 2020 then it’s probably an environment similar to 2020 nationwide.

Dems might lose less ground in places like Dakota county compared to 2020 than other places. I really wish NYT Siena did all of the CD polls like 2018 instead of these once a month generic ballot stuff.

Honestly, high quality house polls would've been the best possible thing this year given how wonky it is.

[wbrocks67]

They did pretty good in this race in 2018, they had her up 3 in late September; she won by 6

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c055cf7e-0e72-4b64-b74c-f0d922fd2c12

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wait, so the Marijuana Party candidate has died weeks before the election in two consecutive election in the same congressional district??

This seems either highly suspicious or at best very bad PR for marijuana.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1582122449080291328

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1582122449080291328

Ds need to make sure young people know that the marijuana party candidate is dead in the moments these voters are not stoned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As I've explained many times the marijuana parties votes don't come based on marijuana but as a generic protest vote thing. In which case it doesn't really matter if the candidate is dead. That still means their voters are stupid but it's pretty obvious if you look at previous results like 2020 Senate that the vote is primarily coming from a "f[inks] both major parties and both of these candidates" mindset instead of a single issue marijuana mindset.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wait, so the Marijuana Party candidate has died weeks before the election in two consecutive election in the same congressional district??

This seems either highly suspicious or at best very bad PR for marijuana.

My first thought is that they might both have been marijuana advocates because of a chronic illness which caused their deaths.

[Ferguson97]

Why would people vote for a dead person? Are they aware?

[bilaps]

Craig only won by 2 in 2020 here, this is not really a bad poll for her. And a dead marijuana party candidate can produce additional votes for her. Dems with their next trifecta need to get these people off the ballot.

And survey USA underestimated Biden.

BBBut what about saving democracy? Dems talking about protecting democracy but if they win power, they should most def remove other parties from ballots because they take away their entitled votes from them

[wbrocks67]

Craig only won by 2 in 2020 here, this is not really a bad poll for her. And a dead marijuana party candidate can produce additional votes for her. Dems with their next trifecta need to get these people off the ballot.

And survey USA underestimated Biden.

BBBut what about saving democracy? Dems talking about protecting democracy but if they win power, they should most def remove other parties from ballots because they take away their entitled votes from them

Uh, the person is dead. There's no reason any dead person should remain on a ballot, whatever party they are

[Badger]

Craig only won by 2 in 2020 here, this is not really a bad poll for her. And a dead marijuana party candidate can produce additional votes for her. Dems with their next trifecta need to get these people off the ballot.

And survey USA underestimated Biden.

BBBut what about saving democracy? Dems talking about protecting democracy but if they win power, they should most def remove other parties from ballots because they take away their entitled votes from them

Uh, the person is dead. There's no reason any dead person should remain on a ballot, whatever party they are

Ignore bilups. He's just being a troll/ass.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Why would people vote for a dead person? Are they aware?

Imagine losing to a dead person, the humiliation.

I know post-death sympathy bonus definitely is a thing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Craig only won by 2 in 2020 here, this is not really a bad poll for her. And a dead marijuana party candidate can produce additional votes for her. Dems with their next trifecta need to get these people off the ballot.

And survey USA underestimated Biden.

BBBut what about saving democracy? Dems talking about protecting democracy but if they win power, they should most def remove other parties from ballots because they take away their entitled votes from them

Uh, the person is dead. There's no reason any dead person should remain on a ballot, whatever party they are

Ignore bilups. He's just being a troll/ass.

Trollass!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-craig-kistner-race-in-2nd-district-looking-like-rerun/

REP ANGIE CRAIG 46
Tyler Craig 45
Paula Overby 5

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

[wbrocks67]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

If a Democrat in a super white Midwestern district is only ahead by 1, yes they are losing.

[Vosem]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

The odd thing is that very specifically SUSA in Minnesota -- and not Minnesota polling generally, or even SUSA in other states -- has a history of overestimating Republicans.

[Mr.Phips]

Given the state of the polling industry, that's probably a Kistner win. I was always pessimistic about this one. She performed poorly in 2020 and the district barely changed.

D lead ---> D is losing
R lead ---> D is losing

The sooner Dems realize they are playing a game of “heads we lose, tails they win” the better.