What happened to Bush in Wisconsin in '04?

[sg0508]

Wisconsin was the "backdoor" strategy if OH failed, especially since holding Florida and then picking up IA and NM (exactly what happened) would not have been enough. There was also a strong feeling that NH would find its way back to the Democrats, which of course it did.

WI was a funny state for a long time. The GOP would flirt with wins there, be ahead in the polls and then the Democrats ALWAYS closed strong and won many of those statewide and national races, outside of Tommy Thompson as governor. 

Bush was consistently up in polls and outside of the margin of error before the conventions and then held a double-digit lead for a few weeks, until Kerry closed the gap and fast, ultimately winning the state again for the Democrats, and nearly the presidency.

I know many people who worked for the Bush campaign in '04 and consistently I hear that WI was the biggest disappointment of all and it almost cost them the whole thing.

What happened?  I've heard it was the controversial same day registrations and provisional ballots that Republicans used to hate, but maybe it was something else?

[OSR stands with Israel]

1. Western WI is anti war and also hard to poll and Kerry did very good in this part of the state.

2. Organized Labor still used to have a good deal of power in WI in 2004. By 2016 they had lost a lot of their power thanks to Scott Walker

[Mr.Phips]

Up until the last couple of days, Ohio looked like it would go to Kerry while it looked like Wisconsin would happen go to Bush, which still would have given Bush the win.

[Pres Mike]

Black turnout in 2004 was higher than expected and it helped Kerry in WI and MI.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I remember many years ago in like 2006 or 2007, I saw something on C-Span talking about a Democratic turnout operation in Wisconsin and one thing I remember them saying, was that the number of people they turned out, exceeded Kerry's margin substantially.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

John Kerry won three purple hearts

[Vice President Christian Man]

Kerry was able to present himself as sympathetic to the WC while painting Bush as an out of touch elitist. Basically the same strategy Dukakis used against Bush Sr only he was far more popular around election day than his son but without the farming crisis, Bush managed to improve on Sr's margin in '88.

[Orwell]

Kerry was able to present himself as sympathetic to the WC while painting Bush as an out of touch elitist. Basically the same strategy Dukakis used against Bush Sr only he was far more popular around election day than his son but without the farming crisis, Bush managed to improve on Sr's margin in '88.

Well that's not really the reason I'd give for Dukakis winning Wisconsin in 1988, i.e. the farm crisis in the western part of the state was probably a bigger reason.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Many swing or potentially swing voters in the Upper Midwest didn't like the Bushes, or indeed the GOP in general from the 1980s until 2016.