If the <35 vote is "inelastically Democratic", then what for the GOP?

[sg0508]

There are more and more signs of this with each passing cycle.  Of course, a large part of that is the Republicans' fault. That being said, there seems to be evidence that no matter the political, economic and social environment, and no matter the quality of the democratic candidate compared to the opposition, those under 35 are just clicking the Democratic box each time.

If that really is true, then what? The Republicans cannot just continue to hope that people don't show up in order to win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

We've had this two party system for over 160 years now, I doubt this is time is uniquely special and will buck that trend to make the US a one-party state. Coalitions shift and change around, but I don't see either party going away.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't buy the idea that the strongly Democratic voting age cohorts will stay that way for time immemorial, or that a new generation of Republicans won't come up at some point.

[Agonized-Statism]

Then Republicans are forced to change to win back some of those voters, which they do eventually. They've already done a pivot on trade policy to stay relevant electorally.

[Biden his time]

There are more and more signs of this with each passing cycle.  Of course, a large part of that is the Republicans' fault. That being said, there seems to be evidence that no matter the political, economic and social environment, and no matter the quality of the democratic candidate compared to the opposition, those under 35 are just clicking the Democratic box each time.

If that really is true, then what? The Republicans cannot just continue to hope that people don't show up in order to win.

It isn't really of concern to the Republican Party since people constantly age out of this demographic and political parties are constantly changing to adapt with new environments. Typically, what has been happening is that as age cohorts in the United States have gotten older, they have been more likely to vote for the GOP.


In the 1996 election, voters between the ages of 18 - 29 selected Bill Clinton with a 19% margin.

These same voters, in 2008, went for Barack Obama with a much weaker 6% margin.

And very recently, in 2020, they voted for Donald Trump with a 1% margin.


In the 2008 election, voters between the ages of 18 - 29 selected Barack Obama with a 34% margin.

These same voters, in 2020, went for Joe Biden with a much weaker 6% margin.


In the 2020 election, voters between the ages of 18 - 29 selected Joe Biden with a 24% margin.

What will it look like in 2032? Historically speaking, almost certainly less Democratic.


Another factor to consider is that the voices of young adults will are also going to be increasingly drowned out by an aging nation.

In fact, due to lower birth rates, the proportion of the population that is under 35 declined drastically from its peak of 41.0% in 1980 (when the Baby Boomer generation was coming of age) to 30.7% in 2008. Because of the size of the Millennial generation, it remained at this level up to 2014, when it started declining again, and today it is at 29%.

And this is only going to continue. Here are projections prepared by the United Nations under the medium fertility variant on the proportion of adult Americans (18+) who are under the age of 35 (18 - 34).

29.3% - 2022
27.8% - 2030
25.7% - 2040
23.7% - 2050

We can see a precipitous decline that is baked in up to 2050, and only has the potential to stabilize or increase after that (since even if birth rates started rising today, it'd take some time for the kids of that generation to reach the 18 - 34 age range).

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

There are more and more signs of this with each passing cycle.  Of course, a large part of that is the Republicans' fault. That being said, there seems to be evidence that no matter the political, economic and social environment, and no matter the quality of the democratic candidate compared to the opposition, those under 35 are just clicking the Democratic box each time.

If that really is true, then what? The Republicans cannot just continue to hope that people don't show up in order to win.

It isn't really of concern to the Republican Party since people constantly age out of this demographic and political parties are constantly changing to adapt with new environments. Typically, what has been happening is that as age cohorts in the United States have gotten older, they have been more likely to vote for the GOP.

We can debate how much of this is due to persuasion of previous voters, versus 1) variable turnout of long-time voters, 2) naturalized immigrants entering the electorate, and 3) highly engaged 18-29 voters possibly being more left-wing than their age cohort as a whole. But either way the data shows a clear trend.

Another factor to consider is that the voices of young adults will are also going to be increasingly drowned out by an aging nation.

The 2020 Dem primaries and #resistance Atlas's collective reaction to Super Tuesday (which I felt foreshadowed a Trump/GOP overperformance in the GE) are a good example of this.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

3) highly engaged 18-29 voters possibly being more left-wing than their age cohort as a whole. But either way the data shows a clear trend.

I think this is a super underrated point. I'm willing to bet that most McGovern '72 boomers voted for Hillary in 2016, and most Nixon boomers voted for Trump - but those boomers who didn't vote in 1972 probably also went for Trump, tilting that cohort Republican.

[Del Tachi]

Younger than 35s are a pretty small part of the electorate (and one that is relatively shrinking each cycle)

[Ferguson97]

Younger than 35s are a pretty small part of the electorate (and one that is relatively shrinking each cycle)

Yes of course, but I think the issue the OP is raising is: what does it mean for the GOP if the current cohort of <35s continue to vote for Democrats at the level that they currently do when they're much older?

[Person Man]

I mean, I think it means that Republicans will have to do even better with older voters and might have to allow for some form of "abortion"(not literally abortion per se but things they consider to be abortion) to extend the lives of their base.

[Orwell]

I'd disagree, I think about 47-48% of the vote is inelastically Democrat-leaning, in a Presidential election hell the last Democrat to not get past 48% was Bill Clinton with a 3rd Party taking almost a Quarter of the vote.

[Vosem]

Younger than 35s are a pretty small part of the electorate (and one that is relatively shrinking each cycle)

Yes of course, but I think the issue the OP is raising is: what does it mean for the GOP if the current cohort of <35s continue to vote for Democrats at the level that they currently do when they're much older?

It's been true in America for a long time that conservative olds come from apolitical youngs, not liberal youngs, so if that continues to hold true, then less than you might think. On the other hand, youth turnout is currently higher than usual, which suggests that the current 18-29 generation might actually be somewhat more inflexibly Democratic than the Millennials of 2008, who are now basically swing voters.

On the whole we distinctly seem to be past the peak of "Democrats win the youth", which was either the 2008 cycle by raw margin or the 2016 cycle by margin relative to the topline; Trump outright improved with young voters in 2020 (and lost because he did worse with older ones). A great deal of 2022 polling also has young voters trending right. (The Trump phenomenon probably extended the lifespan of the Democratic youth phenomenon; in 2014 young voters were only Democratic by single-digits).

~~

Also, as lots of people point out in this thread, having strong support with young voters is not correlated with success in societies where there are strong generational gaps and low fertility, which is true for most of the First World and is becoming true in more and more middle-income countries.

[sg0508]

There's a big difference though between the Millennials and the Gen Zs compared to prior generations.  These two generations are far poorer and many Millennials (their fault or not) are poorer at 35 than they were coming out of school.

The thought that you become more conservative as you get older is usually driven by accumulating wealth, but these two generations are dirt poor overall.  The Republican party to many of their eyes offer them nothing.

[It’s so Joever]

Simple, wait for them to grow up and start voting R like other generations.

[Vosem]

There's a big difference though between the Millennials and the Gen Zs compared to prior generations.  These two generations are far poorer and many Millennials (their fault or not) are poorer at 35 than they were coming out of school.

The thought that you become more conservative as you get older is usually driven by accumulating wealth, but these two generations are dirt poor overall.  The Republican party to many of their eyes offer them nothing.

2008, 18-29: Obama 66-32 (D+34)
2020, 30-44: Biden 52-47 (D+5)
(source is Echelon exit polling; you can fight these numbers if you want and legitimate critiques do exist, but we really don't have better data)

I think the evidence that Millennials have already gotten much more conservative is extensive. Also, I think you underestimate the extent to which lots and lots of ordinary people, including young people, in the United States including even left-wing young people, reflexively blame the government for their misfortunes and are therefore susceptible to Republican arguments. This attitude is really deeply entrenched in American culture and given declining trust generally is probably getting more entrenched.

[Cyrusman]

There's a big difference though between the Millennials and the Gen Zs compared to prior generations.  These two generations are far poorer and many Millennials (their fault or not) are poorer at 35 than they were coming out of school.

The thought that you become more conservative as you get older is usually driven by accumulating wealth, but these two generations are dirt poor overall.  The Republican party to many of their eyes offer them nothing.

So are those two generations more Democratic because they are poorer and as a result need more government help so the Dems canceling student debt for example plays well to them?

[Devils30]

30-44 is a bad breakdown...there is a big difference in politics for those born post-1982 or so and those born around 1975.

[sg0508]

There's a big difference though between the Millennials and the Gen Zs compared to prior generations.  These two generations are far poorer and many Millennials (their fault or not) are poorer at 35 than they were coming out of school.

The thought that you become more conservative as you get older is usually driven by accumulating wealth, but these two generations are dirt poor overall.  The Republican party to many of their eyes offer them nothing.

Yes indeed.

So are those two generations more Democratic because they are poorer and as a result need more government help so the Dems canceling student debt for example plays well to them?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Important premise for answering this question: 2022 generational voting data

The age categories in the Fox data set do not prove your point as it still shows the 18-29 subgroup as voting more Democratic than the 30-44 subgroup (and as you mentioned, these categories don't encompass whole generations as the former group includes Gen Z/late Millennials and the former includes Millennials/late Gen Xers). I would also hesitate to use early vote projections as that is incomplete.

FWIW, political scientist Patrick Fisher analyzed the generational composition of the presidential vote and policy preferences in his book The Generational Gap in American Politics. He used data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) to break down the presidential vote for survey respondents across several elections for the generations as defined by Pew Research. He found that Gen Zers voted overwhelmingly for Biden by a nearly 40-point margin that was more Democratic than Millennial voters in 2020 (figure 1) and that Gen Z voters in 2020 were more Democratic than Millennial voters at the same stage in their life cycle - i.e. people born in 1997-2002 voting in 2020 voted more Democratic than people born between 1981-1986 in 2004 (figure 2).

figure 1


figure 2


We don't know the full breakdown of the 2022 midterm electorate by generation yet, but Fisher's data from firmly goes against your claim that Gen Z being less Democratic than Millennials and not being heavily Democratic overall is a "myth."