Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,763
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2022, 03:01:33 AM » |
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« Edited: October 15, 2022, 03:11:27 AM by Arizona Iced Tea »
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Say Davidson voted like Fulton (D+47), Rutherford like Gwinnett (D+18), and Williamson like Fayette (R+7), Tennessee is still an R+19 state.
Alabama on elections shuffler even if you make Tuscaloosa vote like Gwinnett and Jefferson like Fulton, it's still around R+19-20%.
Electionshuffler isn't perfect because turnout and population changes, but the point is that both of these states are just too rural and red to flip unless Dems make progress in the rural areas. They would also need to make heavy gains in other metro areas like Memphis, or in Alabama's case Mobile, Huntsville, and Montgomery to even have a chance.
Alabama with Birmingham already is roughly the same population and partisan lean as Georgia without Atlanta. Georgia is just a less red state outside Atlanta than Alabama is outside of Birmingham. That's why flipping Alabama is borderline impossible- you would need a massive population influx.
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